When the idea of forming the Orange Democratic Party was first mooted soon after the referendum of 2005, political pundits knew that the Members of Parliament involved in the entire exercise were only building castles in the air. What had brought them together – the rejection of the so called Wako draft Constitution – could not possibly be maintained as a political entity. The political diversity among them was so wide and the people involved could not join hands as genuine political associates.
The Daily Nation front page exposé of January 24th by Bernard Namunane[1] claiming that there was tension in ODM came as no surprise therefore to anyone with the inside knowledge of the rivalry that has always characterized relationship between ODM-Kenya leaders.
According to The Standard of February 20th secret power sharing talks have been going on among leading presidential aspirants of the ODM-Kenya. During the talks leaders have been dishing out top Government jobs among themselves.[2] Very much like the leaders of Narc-Kenya, the ODM top brass seems to have very little time for the people. The two parties appear to be scared stiff of party elections as well as of going through primary elections to seek the people’s mandate to occupy top public offices in the country after this year’s polls.
Until such a time as the people are involved in determining who the real leaders of Narc- Kenya and ODM-Kenya are and who among them will be the presidential or prime ministerial candidates, the two entities will only remain elitist’s clubs of the privileged political class. Both parties appeal to the public for support on ethnic basis. When all is said and done ODM-K remains a party of the ethnic groups of the self appointed leaders carrying its flag in public meetings. Narc- Kenya is exactly the same. Demographically the two groups are more or less the same with a handful of minority nationalities still undecided and therefore vulnerable to grabs by the two giants.
Raila Odinga may be a very popular leader in every part of the country but he is the undisputed head of the Luo community. William Ruto may be a crowd puller in the Rift Valley but only the Nandi people follow him blindly. Kalonzo Musyoka’s charismatic qualities are recognized in almost all corners of the country but it is only among the Kamba people that whatever he says changes into unwritten law. The same equation could be formulated about Kibaki and the Kikuyus, Embus and Merus; Musalia Mudavadi and Luhyas, particularly the Kakamegas; and Marsden Madoka and the Taitas. Looked at in that manner, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, Julia Ujiambo seem to have almost no following of any significance .
From the beginning of 2007 Kenya has been going through an invisible primary election even though proper democracy has not yet been introduced to any political party in the country. The big lesson the country has learnt is that a president who has been put in office without going through a primary election can be extremely difficult to control in terms of party discipline even when he fails to implement party policies as stated in his own manifesto before election. Mwai Kibaki is such a president. He has not bothered to respect any agreement made within Narc just before the 2002 election.
What he has thrown out of the window includes a memorandum of understanding (MoU) which would have reserved prime minister’s job for Raila Odinga and created a Summit to guide his leadership. Instead Kibaki has stuck to the provisions of the current constitution which make him and absolute despot, benevolent though he may be. Without a doubt Kibaki’s Government has achieved a lot – the revival of the Kenya Meat Commission, the Constituency Development Fund and free primary education just to name a few – but he has never operated under any party direction. Instead he chooses to be guided by a group of close business friends which includes extremely unpopular ex British home guard in the Mau Mau freedom struggle of the 1950s, John Michuki. With Michuki in Kibaki’s kitchen cabinet are the self made multi millionaire semi illiterate Njenga Karume and the real brain behind Kibaki’s political survival Joe Wanjui. What all these people have in common is that they come from the numerically and economically dominant Kikuyu ethnic group.
As ODM-K, the main group opposing Kibaki’s Presidency, organizes campaigns to try and nominate a presidential candidate all that Kibaki does is simply to announce that he intends to seek a second term. He never names a political party whose ticket would sponsor him. At least three parties – Narc-Kenya, the Democratic Party and Ford People – claim him as either their own candidate or the candidate they would support. It simply means that the problem of holding primary elections is more in ODM-K than any other party. In more than one way it is the problem which poses the greatest threat to party unity.
The big questions that remain unanswered now are: Can the elections be free and fair without proper primary elections in every political party? What does “free and fair” elections really mean? According to Jorgen Elkin “free and fair” has become the catchphrase of UN officials, journalists, politicians and political scientists alike. He poses a very thought provoking question when he digs deep to try to find out what actually constitutes “a free and fair election”. He wonders whether the phrase only means that the election was “acceptable” or whether it implies something more.[3] Looked at through various ODM constituencies primary elections cannot be “free and fair” because they cannot be “accepted” if certain candidates don’t emerge the winners. To the Luos only Raila is expected to win and to the Kambas the primaries will not be deemed “free and fair” if Kalonzo Musyoka does not win.
When ODM-K leaders travel across the country holding hands like brothers and sisters they claim to be before big crowds of voters, they are only misleading the public. Each one of them wants to use the party to be reelected to parliament and, if possible, become their own people’s presidential candidate. The primary motive of all legislators, as David Mayhew so appropriately puts it, is reelection and “the pursuit of this goal affects the way they behave and the way that they make public policy.”[4] Though Mayhew was writing about congressmen and women in America, his argument is applicable in the Kenyan situation today too.
Personal ambition of the ODM candidates can be seen clearly when they visit various parts of the country. While in Kisumu, Raila is cheered much more than any of his “brothers and sisters” and in Machakos, Kalonzo is the darling and hero of the people. The conventional perceptions that ODM is Kenya’s next government are diluted quite considerably when one looks at the disunity within it. All because of lack of properly organized primary elections which are democratic and transparent.
Experts examine primary elections in a number of ways. Two among these are most popular: An open primary election that allows a large number of voters to determine who the candidates will be and a closed primary election which allows only card carrying party members to do the same. Whether the planned delegates’ conference to elect an ODM presidential candidate will be an open or closed primary it is not clear as yet. What is clear at the moment is that nothing has been agreed on. ODM has not established any meaningful party caucus yet. It is indeed even more disturbing when a president seeks reelection without even naming the political party that will be his platform. May be time has come for the constitution to be changed to demand a mandatory primary election for every political party to be supervised by the electoral commission.
[1] Namunane, Bernard. ODM Tens ion , published on the front page of Saturday Nation No. 15362 .On February 24, 2007.
[2] ODM Power Formula , Published on the front page of The Standard of February 20. No. 27730.
[3] Elkit, Jorgen Want makes Elections Free and Fair published in Journal of Democracy Volume 8, Number 3, July 1997 pp. 32- 46. Published by John Hopkins University Press.
[4] Mayhew, David. Congress: The Electoral Connection , Yale University Press (2004)
The Daily Nation front page exposé of January 24th by Bernard Namunane[1] claiming that there was tension in ODM came as no surprise therefore to anyone with the inside knowledge of the rivalry that has always characterized relationship between ODM-Kenya leaders.
According to The Standard of February 20th secret power sharing talks have been going on among leading presidential aspirants of the ODM-Kenya. During the talks leaders have been dishing out top Government jobs among themselves.[2] Very much like the leaders of Narc-Kenya, the ODM top brass seems to have very little time for the people. The two parties appear to be scared stiff of party elections as well as of going through primary elections to seek the people’s mandate to occupy top public offices in the country after this year’s polls.
Until such a time as the people are involved in determining who the real leaders of Narc- Kenya and ODM-Kenya are and who among them will be the presidential or prime ministerial candidates, the two entities will only remain elitist’s clubs of the privileged political class. Both parties appeal to the public for support on ethnic basis. When all is said and done ODM-K remains a party of the ethnic groups of the self appointed leaders carrying its flag in public meetings. Narc- Kenya is exactly the same. Demographically the two groups are more or less the same with a handful of minority nationalities still undecided and therefore vulnerable to grabs by the two giants.
Raila Odinga may be a very popular leader in every part of the country but he is the undisputed head of the Luo community. William Ruto may be a crowd puller in the Rift Valley but only the Nandi people follow him blindly. Kalonzo Musyoka’s charismatic qualities are recognized in almost all corners of the country but it is only among the Kamba people that whatever he says changes into unwritten law. The same equation could be formulated about Kibaki and the Kikuyus, Embus and Merus; Musalia Mudavadi and Luhyas, particularly the Kakamegas; and Marsden Madoka and the Taitas. Looked at in that manner, Uhuru Kenyatta, Najib Balala, Julia Ujiambo seem to have almost no following of any significance .
From the beginning of 2007 Kenya has been going through an invisible primary election even though proper democracy has not yet been introduced to any political party in the country. The big lesson the country has learnt is that a president who has been put in office without going through a primary election can be extremely difficult to control in terms of party discipline even when he fails to implement party policies as stated in his own manifesto before election. Mwai Kibaki is such a president. He has not bothered to respect any agreement made within Narc just before the 2002 election.
What he has thrown out of the window includes a memorandum of understanding (MoU) which would have reserved prime minister’s job for Raila Odinga and created a Summit to guide his leadership. Instead Kibaki has stuck to the provisions of the current constitution which make him and absolute despot, benevolent though he may be. Without a doubt Kibaki’s Government has achieved a lot – the revival of the Kenya Meat Commission, the Constituency Development Fund and free primary education just to name a few – but he has never operated under any party direction. Instead he chooses to be guided by a group of close business friends which includes extremely unpopular ex British home guard in the Mau Mau freedom struggle of the 1950s, John Michuki. With Michuki in Kibaki’s kitchen cabinet are the self made multi millionaire semi illiterate Njenga Karume and the real brain behind Kibaki’s political survival Joe Wanjui. What all these people have in common is that they come from the numerically and economically dominant Kikuyu ethnic group.
As ODM-K, the main group opposing Kibaki’s Presidency, organizes campaigns to try and nominate a presidential candidate all that Kibaki does is simply to announce that he intends to seek a second term. He never names a political party whose ticket would sponsor him. At least three parties – Narc-Kenya, the Democratic Party and Ford People – claim him as either their own candidate or the candidate they would support. It simply means that the problem of holding primary elections is more in ODM-K than any other party. In more than one way it is the problem which poses the greatest threat to party unity.
The big questions that remain unanswered now are: Can the elections be free and fair without proper primary elections in every political party? What does “free and fair” elections really mean? According to Jorgen Elkin “free and fair” has become the catchphrase of UN officials, journalists, politicians and political scientists alike. He poses a very thought provoking question when he digs deep to try to find out what actually constitutes “a free and fair election”. He wonders whether the phrase only means that the election was “acceptable” or whether it implies something more.[3] Looked at through various ODM constituencies primary elections cannot be “free and fair” because they cannot be “accepted” if certain candidates don’t emerge the winners. To the Luos only Raila is expected to win and to the Kambas the primaries will not be deemed “free and fair” if Kalonzo Musyoka does not win.
When ODM-K leaders travel across the country holding hands like brothers and sisters they claim to be before big crowds of voters, they are only misleading the public. Each one of them wants to use the party to be reelected to parliament and, if possible, become their own people’s presidential candidate. The primary motive of all legislators, as David Mayhew so appropriately puts it, is reelection and “the pursuit of this goal affects the way they behave and the way that they make public policy.”[4] Though Mayhew was writing about congressmen and women in America, his argument is applicable in the Kenyan situation today too.
Personal ambition of the ODM candidates can be seen clearly when they visit various parts of the country. While in Kisumu, Raila is cheered much more than any of his “brothers and sisters” and in Machakos, Kalonzo is the darling and hero of the people. The conventional perceptions that ODM is Kenya’s next government are diluted quite considerably when one looks at the disunity within it. All because of lack of properly organized primary elections which are democratic and transparent.
Experts examine primary elections in a number of ways. Two among these are most popular: An open primary election that allows a large number of voters to determine who the candidates will be and a closed primary election which allows only card carrying party members to do the same. Whether the planned delegates’ conference to elect an ODM presidential candidate will be an open or closed primary it is not clear as yet. What is clear at the moment is that nothing has been agreed on. ODM has not established any meaningful party caucus yet. It is indeed even more disturbing when a president seeks reelection without even naming the political party that will be his platform. May be time has come for the constitution to be changed to demand a mandatory primary election for every political party to be supervised by the electoral commission.
[1] Namunane, Bernard. ODM Tens ion , published on the front page of Saturday Nation No. 15362 .On February 24, 2007.
[2] ODM Power Formula , Published on the front page of The Standard of February 20. No. 27730.
[3] Elkit, Jorgen Want makes Elections Free and Fair published in Journal of Democracy Volume 8, Number 3, July 1997 pp. 32- 46. Published by John Hopkins University Press.
[4] Mayhew, David. Congress: The Electoral Connection , Yale University Press (2004)
2 comments:
When governments are in transition, democracies reveal themselves as difficult. A democracy does not spring forth from the wishes of any single person or group; it takes hard work, dedication and participation by a well-informed, educated majority. The emergence of the need for party primaries in Kenyan politics is an example of the transitory nature of democracy in developing countries.
What is confusing and discouraging is the re-emergence of ethnicity as the controlling issue in party politics and national actions. Another new development is the e-publication, What has Kibaki done with your money? which must have had record readership. There also seems to be a need for all parties to publish their platforms, which should be updated for the current year. Until this is done, and until the incumbent declares his party status, potential voters remain in limbo.
I agree, we are a democracy in transition. The pace may not be quick enuogh but we are slowly getting there. The election in 2012 should be an interesting one.
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