Marende's Ruling is a Victory for Raila

The ruling by the National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende boosted Raila Odinga’s powers to challenge any decision by Mwai Kibaki. It succeeded in stopping the habit of obeying the President blindly. Kibaki’s nomination of Kalonzo Musyoka as the Leader of Government Business in the National Assembly has been shelved because it was challenged by the Prime Minister. Never before, in the history of independent Kenya, has anyone challenged any Executive Order by a sitting President and lived to talk of his success.

Those who did so in the past, including Raila’s own father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, ended up in jail without any trial. Raila himself has suffered the same fate as his father for challenging the powers of a sitting President. Others who challenged Presidential powers simply disappeared or died in very mysterious circumstances.

Marende’s ruling also saved the country for, without it, Parliament was being threatened by its total inability to perform its duty without a House Business Committee. Now the Legislature has a HBC but without its chair – a position which will temporarily be occupied by Marende himself. But Marende is, for all practical purposes, a product of ODM and for that reason even when he serves as the chairman of the HBC it is indeed another victory for Raila.

Before Marende made his historic ruling, PNU members were arguing that no one could challenge the appointment by the President as the Constitution gave him powers to do so. ODM maintained that National Accord and Reconciliation Act demanded that ODM be involved in the process. Raila’s proposal of his own name to be the Leader of Government Business was only meant to show that Kibaki could not make such an important appointment single handedly. Looked at more intently, Marende’s ruling makes Raila’s goal succeed. For Marende says the Accord and the Constitution must be looked at jointly while determining who is right between Raila and Kibaki.

Marende’s ruling has temporarily ended the dangerous confrontation between the two parties forming the coalition Government; but only the very naïve will think it has finished the feud over the leader of Government business in a permanent manner. The House may very well function for a long time without the Leader of Government Business with each Minister speaking for his or her own Ministry. That also means the Speaker is likely to be the chairman of the HBC for a very long time.

In a speech during the State Opening of the Third Session of the Tenth Parliament on April 21st Marende talked of unhealthy intrigue that sometimes threatens to overshadow the tenets of governance in Kenya. He urged MPs to move away from side shows, small talk and stop hitting below the belt to gain unfair advantage or start fresh battles. Did those prophetic words come out of the Speaker spontaneously or did he know something Kibaki didn’t? Did he , as an ODM insider, know that Raila was planning for a major battle for power both in and outside Parliament? Only Marende can give us the answer to that pertinent question. In a way his ruling did so in the most revealing manner.

In his ruling he tried to define the current Government of Kenya as the unity between Raila and Kibaki – a coalition Government as defined by the Accord. But that is not the way Marende thought on April 21st . At that time he told Kibaki this: “Your Excellency, may I conclude my brief remarks by thanking your Government for being mindful about assisting the National Assembly to access enough resources to carry out effective oversight of the Executive, particularly through the Committee system and implementation of other capital projects.” When Raila claimed the leadership of the Legislature on behalf of the coalition Government, Marende changed his mind and his definition of Government somehow is exactly the same as that of the ODM leader’s. What a coincident?

Marende’s ruling is a big loss for the PNU. In Kalonzo Musyoka they had the leadership of Government business in the Legislature. Under Marende they have lost that leadership to the ODM. Given the fact that Marende does only what Raila likes, it is obvious that the real leader of Government Business is, at the moment, the chairman of the HBC who is Marende the ODM loyalist. Under Marende the HBC will follow the ODM agenda and institute reforms that are favourable to the ODM.

The experience that Kenyans have gained out of the bitter rivalry for the control of the Legislature is that the most powerful person in Parliament at the moment is the Prime Minister. When the house begins to discuss serious business concerning urgent constitutional changes it is obvious that very major steps will be taken to change the country into a proper parliamentary democracy like Britain and India. Kibaki will soon be reduced into a figurehead President to perform various national ceremonies and live comfortably at State House as the Head of State.

The manner in which Raila has manipulated Parliament to deny both Mwai Kibaki and Kalonzo Musyoka the leadership of Government business at the Legislature is the same way he will get a list favourable to him to serve in the Interim Independent Electoral Commission. As a matter of fact that list already exists and it will never pass through Parliament if Raila does not think it is composed of pro ODM personalities.

The only headache that Raila has in the current Legislature is the threat by a number of ODM MPs to form a Grand Opposition. It will be difficult for him to allow any ODM MPs to form an Opposition in Parliament as doing so is likely to weaken his grip on the entire Legislature which he has now shown the whole country to have.

The fight for the leadership of Government business in the Legislature and the control of HBC has taught the country an important lesson – that consultations as stipulated in the Accord are extremely important otherwise neither Raila nor Kibaki can rule the country without the other. The other important lesson learnt from the ODM-PNU fights is the fact that of the two, ODM is a lot stronger in Parliament and if PNU does not watch out a vote of no confidence in President Kibaki can be passed at any time when Raila feels it is opportune.