Raila’s presidency endorsed by Kibaki

The message was as clear as daylight. Kikuyus and Luos have now sealed a formidable political pact. Raila Odinga is sure to be the next President of Kenya .Mwai Kibaki’s successful tour of Nyanza was an open endorsement of Raila Odinga’s presidency in 2012. That endorsement has catapulted Agwambo to the stratospheric political leadership in the next general election where other contenders for the high office will have no hope in hell of coming anywhere near the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the man who tried and failed to grab the leadership of Kenya. Unlike his father, Raila Odinga , has succeeded to convince the Kikuyus that they must now hand the political baton to someone from the lake – after all it has always been the people of lake who have willingly been used as stepping stones by all the Kikuyu leaders who have resided at State House.

First there was Jomo Kenyatta, who, despite all the pre-independence popularity, was still feared and therefore opposed by Daniel arap Moi’s Kalenjins, Maside Muliro’s Luhyas and Ronald Ngala’s Miji Kendas. Though he was, as usual, strongly backed by the populous Gema group, he could never have dreamt of taking over the leadership of Kanu, which formed the first independent Government of Kenya, without the support of the Luo Rightists under Tom Mboya and the more powerful Luo Leftists under Raila’s father Jaramogi. The 1963 Kikuyu- Luo political pact pushed a Kikuyu to the first presidency of Kenya. The first vice presidency of Kenya went to a Luo, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, because of that powerful political arrangement. Today, Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki are reviving that deal.

Every time Kikuyus and Luo have come together, they have easily snatched political power in Kenya. Despite the forceful and clever British opposition to the Luo-Kikuyu pact in the colonial era, the two largest tribes of Kenya came together and took over the leadership of the country under Kanu. The British organized the Maasais, Kalenjins, Miji Kendas and Luhyas to form Kadu, which principally opposed to Kikuyu-Luo leadership, but miserably failed. That was just before independence in early 1960s.

When President Daniel arap Moi came to power through the Kikuyu consent when Kenyatta appointed him Vice President, a position he held until his boss died, he changed into one of the most iron fisted despot and it was not easy to remove him from office. Even after his term of office constitutionally ended in 2002, he tried to continue ruling Kenya through his former superior’s son, Uhuru Kenyatta.

It took Kikuyu-Luo unity to defeat Uhuru Kenyatta and put Mwai Kibaki in office. That unity has now been reborn making Raila Odinga a definite successor to the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces in Kenya and the President of the Republic of Kenya, Mwai Kibaki. The latest Luo-Kikuyu pact that will ensure Raila’s victory in the next general election was not easy to detect. Kibaki was not quite prepared to go public about the agreement. Publicly, therefore, he talked about the need of unity between all Kenyans, including Luos and Kikuyus, to bring about progress and prosperity in the country. He remained extremely noncommittal when the Luo elders openly asked him to make a solemn undertaking to support Raila’s candidacy in 2012. All he could say publicly was the need for the two communities to cooperate. But examining what Kibaki really said in details clearly indicated he meant much more than what came out of his mouth.

These are the exact words of the de facto Kikuyu leader: “We have always worked together, even before independence. And each time we have worked together, Kenya has done well. Every time our two communities have fallen apart, Kenya has suffered. I appeal to you that we work together for the sake of Kenya.” Nothing could be clearer than that. The Luo elder’s request had been positively fulfilled in Kibaki’s usual diplomatic manner. Any Tom Dick and Harry could read between the lines. Those with Presidential ambitions and were planning to oppose Agwambo in 2012, were extremely disappointed. Among the most disappointed politicians was Uhuru Kenyatta who thought he was being groomed by Kibaki to step in his shoes. That is why, Uhuru and many who think like him, believe he was appointed Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Finance.

As a seasoned politician, Kibaki knows the country cannot accept another Kikuyu politician to become the fourth President of Kenya. The support for Raila was therefore not only inevitable but a guarantee that a son of an old political friend, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, will take over the leadership of the country and continue to protect his vast property acquired during his eight years as the nation’s number one boss. When Kibaki was a young man, fresh from Makerere University, where he was lecturing on economics, he became the first Executive Officer of the strongest freedom movement which had just been formed – the Kenya African National Union. In that position he became the political protégé of the dynamic Jaramogi Oginga.

Though powerful, Kanu of that time had its own political problems. The party was polarized by the Cold War with Tom Mboya championing the Western political ideology and Jaramogi coming out openly as a Socialist who is on record saying “Communism is food!” He openly received financial assistance from the Chinese and other Communist countries in Eastern Europe when Tom Mboya was also openly getting assistance from the American controlled labour movement ICFTU. The party was therefore torn apart between its President James Gichuru and Tom Mboya on one side and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Bildad Kaggia, Pio Gama Pinto and J. D. Kali on the other side.

Socially Kibaki was closer to Tom Mboya than to Oginga Odinga. Though Mboya was technically Kibaki’s boss as the Party’s Secretary General, the two ware always chasing girls and drinking together at the Africa Club , which was the only bar in the middle of the city that allowed Africans to enjoy themselves. Almost every weekend the two young men were dancing with their girlfriends at the club. Kibaki was with a beautiful girl from Nyeri called Lucy and Raila had an even more beautiful one called Pamela who was the daughter of a Member of the Legislative Council, Walter Odede. The friendship was so strong that Kibaki became Mboya’s best man when he married Pamela.

Raila’s father, Jaramogi, was the party’s Vice President so he too was Kibaki’s boss. As the Executive Officer his office was next to that of the Vice President’s and officially he was always close to him. Politically therefore, Kibaki could be said to be closer to Raila’s father. He was therefore absolutely right when he said the cooperation between the Luos and Kikuyu started long before independence. Today’s cooperation is likely to be even stronger as it is also backed by Luhyas under Musalia Mudavadi’s leadership. Uhuru’s worry about Raila-Kibaki cooperation was not only caused by Kibaki’s new collaboration with Raila but also by the fact that he is lumped together with William Ruto in the KNCHR report, which means the two may be prosecuted together as masterminds of the post election violence. Ruto and Uhuru have therefore become political birds of the same feathers and they may be flocking together either in jail or running mates in 2012. Because of his long standing enmity with Raila, Kalonzo Musyoka may join this group with the hope of being sponsored the team’s next Prime Minister.

The Ruto-Uhuru alliance is likely to bring together the Kalenjins and 25 percent of Kikuyus from Kiambu and Kambas. The 75 percent of Kikuyus from Muranga, Nyeri and Kirinyaga are likely to support Raila’s candidature with Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate. This team is likely to sponsor Martha Karua as the next Prime Minister. Needless to say Raila’s team will get a landslide victory making Agwambo the fourth President of the Republic of Kenya.