Kenyan tribes unite for referendum

Whenever Kenyans do anything political they resort to tribal methodology.With very few exceptions political parties are tribal institutions.Political candidates are nominated on tribal basis and MPs are , therefore, elected on tribal rather than party tickets. Political parties' popularities are concentrated in tribal areas and are mainly formed on ethnic rather than ideological basis. The current referendum tug-of-war between “YES” and “NO” teams are no exception. Tribal elements will play a major role in determining who the winners and losers will be.

For the time being the most conspicuous ethnic group in the two camps is the Kalenjin who have massively backed Higher Education Minister William Ruto’s “NO” camp even when they know their chances of winning are extremely slim. What then has made the Kalenjins isolate themselves from the rest of Kenyans in the forthcoming referendum? The answer to that question depends entirely on the interpretation or misinterpretation of the Proposed Constitution.

For some very strange reasons the Kalenjin people have been made to believe that their land would be very insecure when the Proposed Constitution is accepted. Despite the high numbers of highly educated Kalenjins, the ethnic group listens only to a few tribal leaders. It so happens that the two most important Kalenjin leaders , William Ruto and Daniel Toroitich arap Moi, both oppose the Proposed Constitution for some very personal reasons which are not dissimilar, despite the fact that the two leaders don’t see eye to eye on most issues.

In opposing the Proposed Constitution , Moi has put all his eggs in the Rift Valley basket, where he has concentrated all his efforts to convince the Kalenjins , even the poorest and landless amongst them, that their land is about to be nationalized . As far as Moi is concerned the Kalenjin people must unite to reject the Proposed Constitution. But the Minister for Higher education thinks a little bit differently. He would rather some other tribes also joined the Kalenjins in rejecting the Proposed Constitution. Ruto’s crusade to establish an alliance with another tribe seems to be concentrated in Ukambani where Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s leadership is unchallenged.

His frequent visits to the area have been met with confused reception as the Vice President refuses to openly back the “NO” camp though he continues to talk of tolerance and unity in the country. His lukewarm support of the “YES” camp has made many believe he secretly supports Ruto’s Ukambani visits. If Kalonzo does not step in and forcefully denounce the Ruto visits the Kamba people will go to the referendum polls completely divided, though that division will have little effect on the final results.

Ruto’s efforts to get other tribes support the Kalenjin “NO” stand has made him take his campaign to the Western Province, where the majority of the people and political leaders are firmly in the “YES” camp. His attempts to get the support of the Miji Kenda people of the Coast seem to have boomeranged when Coastal Muslims accused him of trying to stirrup animosities between Christian and Muslims. The High Education Minister has since been grilled by NCIC on suspicion of spreading hate speech.

Ruto’s desperate attempts to get other tribes to back Kalenjins in rejecting the Proposed Constitution seem to have hit a brick wall as most other ethnic groups have now united under their various tribal leaders supporting the Proposed Constitution. On top of that list are the Luo people who, as usual, are solidly behind Prime Minister Raila Odinga in favour of the Draft law. That support is so strong that there has not been any need to organize campaign meetings urging the people of Nyanza to vote “YES”.

Judging by the number of Luhya MPs led by Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi supporting the Proposed Constitution, Ruto’s efforts to get some support in Western Province also seem to be an exercise in futility. Lugari MP, Cyrus Jirongo seems to be the only powerful Luhya leader supporting Ruto’s stand. Observers believe Ruto and Jirongo have many things in common. They are both former leaders of Youth for Kanu ’92 (YK ’92) and are also believed to be owners of huge tracts of land, which they see threatened by the Proposed Constitution.

Within the Rift Valley the Maasai people led William Ole Ntimama are all sworn supporters of the Proposed Constitution. Backing the Maasai are their cousins the Samburu people led by Simeon Saimanga Lesirma who has been campaigning seriously to make sure no Samburu vote will go to the “NO” camp.

In Central Province where Uhuru Kenyatta has been accused of leading the so called “Watermelon” group which, like the fruit, is green on the outside and red in the inside, the situation is now absolutely clear. The Province is strongly supporting the Proposed Constitution. After a secret meeting of the most important leaders of the Kikuyus, Embus and Merus, it was unanimously agreed that the Gema people would vote “YES” for the Proposed Constitution. The significance of that meeting is that for the first time the leader of the Mungiki, a clandestine organization with a million followers, Maina Njenga, was brought onboard.

Past experience proves that the Central Province always votes as an ethnic bloc with a formidable control of several million voters. Given the choice of either backing the Clergy which is seeking the “NO” vote or backing the ethnic leaders, the Kikuyus, Embus and Merus would always choose the later.

Another powerful ethnic group that must not be underestimated in the forthcoming referendum is made up of the Somali Communities to be found in the North Eastern and parts of Eastern Regions. Believing that their religion, Islam, is being threatened by the Clergy that is demanding the abolishment of the Kadhi courts, almost every single registered Somali voter will support the Proposed Constitution. All opinion polls have shown that well above 80% of the voters among the Somali people support the Proposed Constitution.

Because of its land policy, which calls for correction of historical injustices, the Miji Kenda people of the Coast are overwhelmingly supporting the Proposed Constitution. Their earlier misgivings based on the misconceptions that the Draft laws don’t provide for political and economic devolution have been corrected by civic education. Led by their tribal leaders who happen to be members of Parliament, the Miji Kenda have now been convinced that the liberation of their land depends entirely on voting “YES” for the proposed Constitution.

The lone coastal Member of Parliament who opposes the Proposed Constitution is Naomi Shaban who must have some personal reasons for backing the “NO” camp. Knowing that she faces the sack from the Cabinet after the referendum , the step she has taken could cost her political future given the fact a lot of her voters are squatters who stand to benefit from the Proposed Constitution. This means she may not even see Parliament against after the 2012 elections.

Whenever William Ruto has gone he has been saying how unfair it is for the people of Lamu, who have only two parliamentary constituencies, to be given a whole county in the Proposed Constitution when other deserving Kenyans have been given none. Inadvertently, he has antagonized the Bajuni people of Lamu who, backed by their neighbors the Pokomos of Tana River, are now determined to back the Proposed Constitution.

So much has been said about the contents of the Proposed Constitution. William Ruto and his team have moved in some well chosen areas trying to get support of some specific people. Church leaders have gone round the country quoting the Bible in opposition to the Proposed Constitution. They have dwelt on two major issues which they say upsets Christians in Kenya – abortion and Kadhi courts. President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga have moved their strong contingents addressing massive rallies in various parts of the country. But when all is said and done it is the tribe that will matter in the referendum. Like all other political activities in Kenya, the referendum will see Kenyans ganging up as tribes and making their final decision on whether to vote “YES” or “NO” on tribal considerations.

If the people we see moving around campaigning for and against have any backing of their tribes, then the “YES” vote is sure to carry the day on August 4th.This is mainly because the most powerful tribes, may be for completely different reasons , are supporting the Proposed Constitution. Kenya, being a country that makes her major political decisions on tribal basis, there is no way the Kikuyus,the Embus, the Merus,the Maasai, the Pokomos, the Luos, the Luhyas, the Miji Kendas,the Bajunis,the Samburus the Taitas, a large number of Kambas and the Somalis can unite to achieve a political goal and fail.