Ousting Raila illegally is unwise

KKK is plotting to oust Raila Odinga from his position as the Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya. But they are trying to do so by circumventing the law. The plot was exposed by The Standard of February 7, 2011 which said there was a move to amend the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of 2008 “ by claiming Raila no longer commands a majority allegiance in ODM .”

The story did not indicate the specific part of the law the rebel MPs were planning to amend to deny the PM the right to claim the leadership of the party. But it said the rebels plan “to play the card of numbers, with the help of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity.” Whereas it is true that the Kalenjin MPs joined by their Kikuyu and Kamba friends form a very strong force in Parliament, that force is not legally strong enough to remove Raila from his job as the country’s Premiere.

Raila is the Prime Minister of Kenya today because Section 3 (1) of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of 2008 says there shall be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya. Section 3(2) of the Act says the person to be appointed as Prime Minister shall be an elected member of the National Assembly who is the parliamentary leader of (a) the political party that has the largest number of members in the National Assembly; or (b) a coalition of political parties in the event that the leader of the political party that has the largest number of members in the National Assembly does not command the majority in the National Assembly.

The argument by the KKK to deny Raila the Premiership is probably based on the assumption that either ODM is no longer the party that has the largest members in the National Assembly, which is not true, or that someone else, other than Raila Odinga, is the leader of a coalition of political parties that commands the majority in the National Assembly. KKK may very well be numerically superior to any other political group in the National Assembly; but that superiority cannot be officially recognized without a formal establishment of an anti Raila coalition of political parties in Parliament that is in keeping with requirements of the Standing Orders.

The only person who can give the interpretation of the legal establishment of such a coalition is Speaker Kenneth Marende who has made a name for himself for being very level headed in determining the right legal position of any standing order dispute. So far William Ruto has been telling his KKK friends at political rallies outside Parliament Building of his plan to topple Raila Odinga’s position as the Prime Minister. He has not done so officially in the Chamber. Officially Raila is still the leader of the party with the majority MPs in Parliament, because no one has officially quit the party.

According to The Standard story Ruto and his allies, who previously announced that they were planning to quit ODM, and would register or join another party, appear to have ditched that plan in favour of removing Raila as PM. If The Standard story is true then the legal way for the rebels to get rid of Raila as the Prime Minister would be to get rid of him as the ODM leader first. Whoever inherits Raila as the ODM leader would automatically become the Prime Minister of the coalition Government of Kenya.

But to get rid of Raila from the ODM, Ruto and his friends would have to go back to the party and call for a meeting of the highest organ of the party where they would challenge Raila’s leadership of the party. Short of that Raila would legitimately remain the leader of the ODM until after the next party national elections. And as long as he is the legitimate leader of the ODM he will remain the Prime Minister of Kenya unless the rebels officially pull out of the party and seek to be reelected through either PNU tickets or tickets of a political party that intends to form a parliamentary coalition with PNU.

So if Ruto wants to become the new Prime Minister after Raila, he must legally topple Agwambo in ODM first. He cannot become the Prime Minister of this country by illegally joining hands with his KKK colleagues in PNU. Before the rebels in ODM form a parliamentary coalition of political parties with PNU that will command the respect of Kenyans as well as that of the Speaker of the National Assembly, they should first sign an agreement on the principles of partnership of the new coalition Government.

After all, that will indeed be a new Government between PNU and rebel ODM members. Indeed even Raila himself had to sign such an agreement with Mwai Kibaki in the presence of Kofi Annan, and Jakaya Kikwete. It is the agreement on the principles of partnership that gave birth to both the National Accord and Reconciliation Act of 2008 and the Coalition Government itself. Failure to topple Raila in the ODM party first before thinking of forming a new coalition government the rebel ODM MPs must resign their Parliamentary seats before thinking of establishing a new coalition Government with the fellow KKK members in the PNU.

Ruto must know that the days of quitting one political party and joining another one on the basis of the side of the bread that is buttered are now gone and gone forever in Kenya. Before they think of forming a new coalition they must quit ODM as it is stipulated in Article 103. (1)(e) of the new Constitution which says the office of a Member of Parliament becomes vacant if, having been elected to Parliament as a member of a political party, the member resigns from that party or is deemed to have resigned from the party.

Besides that, Raila should probably take serious steps to discipline the rebel MPs by showing them the door though that would be risking making them come back after expensive by elections between now and next year. May be that would be a risk worth taking because it would serve the purpose of cleaning up the party and also of introducing the badly needed discipline in the party.

The Standard story said Ruto is desperately trying to become the next Prime Minister after Raila before next year because he hopes, as a Prime Minister, he will not be touched by Luis Moreno-Ocampo. Nothing could be further from the truth. Moreno-Ocampo does not care what position suspects he wants to prosecute hold. Right now he is after President Omar al Bashir of Sudan for crimes against humanity that he committed in Darfur. William Ruto becoming the Prime Minister of Kenya would not change the fact that he is a wanted suspected criminal by the ICC.

For some very strange reasons the KKK alliance believes that a local tribunal will not be able to find the Ocampo Six guilty and that is why they are sparing no efforts in trying to get the referral from the ICC. This makes it all the more important for the judicial appointments to be made in a transparent and constitutionally correct manner. If the Ocampo Six are to be tried in Kenya then they must be tried by an internationally recognized tribunal that has the respect of the ICC. Hence the importance of protecting Raila’s position as the Prime Minister of Kenya because he alone seems to be determined to fight for justice for the forgotten hundreds of thousands of suffering Kenyan IDPs.

To try and topple the Prime Minister illegally would be the most foolish thing to do because it is likely to anger the majority of Kenyans who support the ODM leader even when some of them are not even members of the party. Efforts by some PNU MPs to pull out of the coalition Government would be faced by the same predicament of forming a new coalition with the rebel ODM MPs. Without a proper legal process to establish such a coalition Raila will remain Kenya’s Prime Minister until the next general election. If Mwai Kibaki pulls out of the coalition Government , his Government will be a minority Government with no legitimacy to remain in power.