Kenyan coalition rocky but active

It is three years since Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga agreed to establish a coalition government to save the country from a downward trend towards a civil war. Today the examination of the success or failure of that Government can be done through a SWOT analysis that would indicate the strength, weakness, opportunities and threats challenging the fragile government.

Among the most significant achievements of the Kibaki-Raila Government is getting Kenyans to agree on a new Constitution with one of the best Bill of Rights in the world. The achievement of that goal, which was one of the most important objectives of Agenda Four, marks the establishment of the most noteworthy pillars of the coalition, without which there could have been no Government worth talking about in this country.

Yet the achievement of that goal was not an easy undertaking. Around both the President in PNU and the Prime Minister in ODM were political giants determined to wreck the new Constitution when it was still in its embryonic stages. Around Kibaki were Uhuru Kenyatta, John Michuki, Kalonzo Musyoka and the most powerful people who constitute the Clergy in this country. Around Raila were William Ruto and the most powerful land owners in the fertile Rift Valley.

All these people joined hands to form a formidable force opposed to the new Constitution mainly because of its Bill of Rights and Chapter Five on land. Those parts of the new Constitution threaten to take away the power concentrated in very few hands since independence and distribute it to the people on Kenya.

Long after the promulgation of the Constitution the tycoons of Kenya are still determined to torpedo it at every stage of its implementation. Yet Kibaki is still harbouring them in his kitchen cabinet. If there is any major challenge to the continued existence of the coalition Government in Kenya it is the continued presence of people determined to wreck the constitution in very important positions of the Government.

One of the strengths of the Kibaki-Raila coalition is the existence of Agenda Four as the yardstick to measure its achievements. Described as the long standing issues that have continued to pose serious social, economic and political problems in Kenya, Agenda Four suggests elaborate solutions to those problems. The regular monitoring by the international community of how Agenda Four is being implemented has given the coalition Government a collection of assignments to be achieved before its time elapses.

Every time Agenda four is reexamined the success or failure of the Kibaki Government can clearly be scrutinized. Among the most important items of Agenda Four include constitutional, legal and institutional reforms which have by and large been achieved though a lot has yet to be fulfilled. Other Agenda Four goals include tackling poverty and inequality, and combating regional development imbalances which are far from being achieved.

Tackling unemployment especially among the youth is yet another Agenda Four item that has yet to be achieved. Consolidation of national cohesion and unity can be said to have been implemented because the National Cohesion and Integration Act is in full force. The same, however, cannot be said about transparency, accountability and impunity which are still the nation’s most problematic headaches.

Another major strength of the Kibaki-Raila regime is based on the existence of a fairly educated population which is both hardworking and politically awake to its fundamental first and second generation human rights. Kenya’s integrated urban population can be said to be politically miles ahead of its leaders who are still bogged down on petty tribal rivalry. Indeed it is due to Kenyan population’s political maturity that the new Constitution was overwhelmingly supported by almost everyone across the country.

The coalition weaknesses include tribalism which still exists in the minds of parochial leaders who have always survived because of the existence of tribal animosity among various peoples of Kenya. Because of tribalism, alliances like the KKK have been established by William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka. The future of such alliances however appears to be very threatened due to political influence from the urban areas.

The most challenging weakness of the Kibaki-Raila regime will always be corruption, poverty, unemployment among the youth and greed among the so-called leaders. Though PLO Lumumba took over his anti-corruption job with a lot of vigour and dynamism that initial heartiness seems to be dwindling mainly because he started by stepping on too sensitive toes of political giants who must have hit back at him in a clandestine manner. Otherwise there is no plausible explanation for his abrupt silence which signifies unhealthy inactivity.

Among the opportunities confronting the coalition government is the fact that Kenya is the economic hub of the region. Whenever there is political stability in the country the economy improves to the advantage of many other countries in East Africa. These include Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and now South Sudan. The importance of Kenya to this part of Africa makes the international community determined to maintain the political stability of the country.

With the international goodwill for Kenya extending to both the countries of the East and the West the economic stability of this country guarantees future prosperity of the entire region. Political insecurity in the Arab world, however, threatens the rise of oil prices that could endanger the economies of Kenya and of the countries around it. But if the Middle East countries become politically stable with the expected rapidity of the departure of despotism, Kenya and indeed the entire eastern Africa region, stands to gain from boosting of traditional trade between the Middle East and East Africa.

The threats facing the Rail –Kibaki regime include lack of truly well organized political parties that would see the country move from the current transition into the future in a smooth manner. Realizing the political metamorphosis the country is going through could push them into the disappearance from the political scene, the current political leadership is desperately trying to perpetuate the status quo by creating artificial wars between tribes. The existence of KKK alliance is a desperate attempt to unite the Kikuyus, Kambas and Kalenjins between now and the next general elections.

The KKK unity, however, cannot last long because within it are leaders who all expect to be Kibaki’s successors at the State House. Political parties that don’t have meaningful manifestos that would attract a large number of educated Kenyans will have no place in future politics of this country. The Kibaki-Raila regime will most certainly last until the next general election mainly because all the leaders in the current Government love their lucrative jobs so much that they would do anything to protect them. When the time for the coalition government officially comes to an end, the political confrontation that will take place in the country will be fierce and ferociously brutal. Only the fittest will survive and it will be the fittest that will get the support of the people.