Uhuru Rocks Both Kanu and ODM

Uhuru Kenyatta is a political power to reckon with. His refusal to submit presidential nomination papers to the ODM has seriously rocked the unity in what appeared to be the strongest force against Mwai Kibaki in the forthcoming December general election. It has also clearly shown who is the real boss of the section of Kanu that has a love hate relationship with ODM, which the ODM desperately needs to remove Kibaki from power. Yet he is now threatening to pull the oldest party in Kenya from the fragile ODM unity and is also posing serious questions no one in ODM is prepared to answer.

Hence the desperate and futile attempt to cajole him back into the fold in order to use him and his massive supporters as a mere rubber stamp for the benefit of an invisible manipulator within ODM. But alas, Uhuru has seen through the whole scheme and he is now fighting with the most formidable force of oratory and immense financial power to be given an audience. The whole country is now listening to him and whatever steps he takes will have far-reaching political consequences.

If he decides to run in the next election as Kanu’s presidential candidate, ODM will have no hope in hell of forming the next government. The majority of the people who gathered at Kasarani on June 11th Kanu NDC will vote for him in the hope of at least negotiating on equal footing with whoever wins the Presidential elections in December. Uhuru’s candidature will in fact open the State House doors even wider for President Kibaki with whom Uhuru has never said he will not negotiate. The chances of ODM forming the next government will be further reduced by Kanu’s sponsorship of a parliamentary candidate in every constituency. Uhuru has decided to do both for the benefit of his party and there is plenty of evidence to show that he is not likely to change his mind easily. After all he is a political animal who believes in the survival of the fittest in the struggle for existence.

William Ruto’s attempt to disregard Uhuru’s demands and kick him out ODM will neither get the support of the real power behind ODM nor that of ordinary Kanu members who look at Uhuru with new respect as a tough leader they never knew before. The real power behind ODM knows that without Kanu the party cannot threaten Mwai Kibaki’s popularity. Without Kanu ODM will also be exposed to the people in its true colours – which is a group of disgruntled politicians who once belonged to Kanu but pulled out in 2002 to form the LDP, another party that has yet to organise its own elections. So Uhuru is more powerful than many would like to accept.

The question he poses is extremely relevant: Is ODM an umbrella organisation that brings together like mined parties or is it a political party itself? The question may sound rhetorical and he probably knows its answer but if it is indeed a political party like everyone knows it to be, then it is extremely dangerous for Kanu to join it. Doing so will indeed be committing political suicide. It will simply be the end of Kanu. The question many are bound to ask is: Isn’t Kanu already in ODM? The answer is simple. Without Uhuru the entire party cannot claim to be in ODM and those who are in it individually like Ruto have yet to know Uhuru’s future schemes. Ruto without the support of Moi and Biwott in Kanu is like a pub with no beer even if he gets the support of the likes of Dalmas Otieno who is only in ODM to win a nomination in a Luo Nyanza constituency that will take him back to parliament.

It will not be surprising at all for Uhuru to organise another NDC for Kanu to see his plans endorsed. Indeed if there was a secret ballot at Kasarani on June 11th he would have carried the day. Besides that, he seems to be the only person in the party who can afford more than thirty million shillings needed to organise such a gathering. It is obvious that Uhuru will take that step before December as he has already tested the waters.

That there is an invisible manipulator in ODM there is no doubt. Its oath of allegiance removes all constitutional rights of freedom of association from whoever takes it. Uhuru has refused. It also demands to know what role one played in the so-called second liberation. Obviously Uhuru cannot answer that question positively as indeed he was against the second liberation if at all it can be called that. All the same today he speaks with a lot of political power behind him not only because of being the most financially dominant within both Kanu and ODM, but also because of his age. In December he will most certainly be the youngest presidential candidate and the fact that the vote from the youth will be the deciding factor in the elections is yet another advantage in favour of Uhuru. His wherewithal allows him to travel far and wide seeking the vote from the youthful electorate which must now be admiring his courage to call a spade a spade both within Kanu and ODM.

In this political game of intrigue both within and between Kanu and ODM the most amused observer, if an observer indeed he is, is the retired President Daniel arap Moi. When Uhuru joined ODM he disowned him, yet when he showed some teeth and willingness to bite he hailed the son of the first president. It will not be surprising at all to find out that Moi is perhaps the brain behind Uhuru’s stubbornness. Moi’s biggest headache remains the divided Kanu; but with Uhuru back in the camp it will not be surprising at all for the former President to play the role of mediator between the two factions of Kanu. With Nicholas Biwott, Uhuru Kenyatta and Moi in one united Kanu it will be the revamped and richest party in the country with the most rejuvenated presidential candidate.

A stubborn Uhuru is only one of the many problems of ODM. The other major one is how to conduct primary elections not only for the presidential candidate but also for the parliamentary candidates. In certain parts of the country such as Luo Nyanza winning the ODM nomination will be as good as winning a seat in the Legislature. So the campaign will be tough and, unfortunately, very ethnically oriented. If Uhuru can convince the people of Kenya that his New Kanu is above tribalism then both ODM, Narc Kenya and whatever party Mwai Kibaki chooses to get the ticket from will have to take him very seriously indeed. This is a new Uhuru Kenyans are seeing and he is an Uhuru with a lot of political power behind him.