The Raila-Kalonzo unbridgeable crack

The political rope used in the ODM-K tug of war between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka has finally snapped throwing the two rivals even farther apart without any hope at all of ever working together again. But the struggle to dominate the powerful opposition party continues and sooner or later it will be divided into two when one of them succeeds in kicking out the other. Kalonzo claims the law is on his side as party executives officially registered by the government support him, while Raila claims all the officials running the party headquarters are behind him. The party is sunk in greater confusion by the fact that both men are right.

The resignation of Kalonzo Musyoka from the LDP must have been a very well calculated move not necessarily to gain popularity but to make sure that Raila will never become the next president of Kenya after the December elections. It effectively denies Raila all the Kamba votes and frees Kalonzo to look for political partnership from any other quarter including the Mwai Kibaki camp. According to Agwambo the latest move by Musyoka amounts to deserting ODM-K. Yet this does not necessarily mean that Raila will become the undisputed leader of the party. Kalonzo is not the only rival Raila is facing. Even after the departure of Kalonzo Musyoka, if indeed it can be called that, Raila will still have to face Musalia Mudavadi in another confrontation.

The chances of Luhya people in general, and Kakamegas from Vihiga in particular, accepting Mudavadi to step down for Raila Odinga are very slim indeed. Likewise the Luos will never allow Agwambo to play the second fiddle ever again. The two men are likely to end up presenting nomination papers as presidential candidates separately due to uncompromising pressure from their people. With Kalonzo out of the picture, if indeed that is the case, the animosity between Raila and Mudavadi will soon start snowballing to a level of bitterness worse than that between Kalonzo and Raila.

But even in this new confrontation between Raila and Mudavadi, Raila is likely to come out triumphant as the undisputed leaders of the ODM-K. Whereas there are a few Luhyas who believe in Raila’s effective leadership, Mudavadi cannot claim to have any support what so ever in the entire Nyanza. ODM-K as a party therefore is beginning to take the shape of an individual’s property and that individual is without a doubt Raila Odinga.

As a lawyer, Kalonzo Musyoka knows the dispute between him and Raila may end up in court where the real battles will be fought giving him time to mobilize and test his forces. If the court favours him then he will be the undisputed ODM-K presidential candidate without the support of Raila Odinga. On the other hand if Raila wins the legal battle then, he too, will most certainly be the undisputed ODM-K candidate without the support of Kalonzo Musyoka and may be without the support of Musalia Mudavadi also. Either way ODM-K will be considerably weakened with the only hope of forming a very strong opposition in the next parliament.

In his heart of hearts Kalonzo would rather lose the legal battle and contest presidential elections as a third force with the hope of forming the next government with Mwai Kibaki. In this way he will make sure his Kamba people will be very powerful partners in Kibaki’s second term government. This must be the only strategy that gives him the strength to claim the ownership of ODM-K now, even though he knows the overwhelming majority of rank and file members back Raila Odinga.

If this scenario comes to reality the most puzzling question will be: What happens to Professor Julia Ojiambo of the Labour Party? The answer could be an assured nomination seat in the next Parliament. After all that is really all that the academic turned politician actually wants to be – something similar to what she is at the moment – a nominated MP. A mere nominated MP! That may sound too low a position for her but actually it is not. Parliament today is a gold mine particularly for nominated MPs who do not need to spend a penny for any campaign and not a cent for the development of any constituency. The lady knows she is being used to play a very major role in reducing the powers of Raila Odinga and if the plan succeeds both Kalonzo and Kibaki will be more than pleased to reward her with a nominated seat in the new Parliament after December.

Whatever way one looks at the agony in the ODM-K, it does not paint a rosy picture for the party’s future. Apart from the Raila – Kalonzo feuds there are bitter parliamentary nominations to be undertaken throughout the country. It is not difficult to imagine losers in the nominations ether joining the Kalonzo or Uhuru camps or any of the political parties which will be out for sale. Though the incumbent MPs are making so much noise in support of ODM-K, they will be the first to jump out of the party when they lose party nomination to go back to parliament.

Today there is a very large number of MPs who see ODM-K as an easy way to get reelected. Yet these MPs are more of a liability than an asset to the party. Their greed as MPs which started with putting up their salaries to be among the highest in the world, to making an attempt to get a golden handshake before they embark on election campaigns, have meant they have actually committed political suicide. Not even ODM-K will be able to save them from the people’s determination to throw them into the dustbin of history. As a matter of fact the easiest way for ODM to lose the next election is to nominate the current MPs to be its candidates in the next election.

Mwai Kibaki’s mysterious silence about which party to choose as his stepping stone back to power is obviously based on the fact that he is not eager at all to be associated with the current MPs. All the parties that back him have their own internal problems but none of these problems are serious enough to demand a new presidential candidate. In fact the war in these parties is based on who is more sincere and closer to Mwai Kibaki. Parliamentary nominations in these parties will also see very many losers trying to join either ODM-K or any of the more 200 political parties up for sale. The result will simply mean more of the current MPs losing their seats.

One of the MPs in very serious danger of losing their seats in Parliament is Charity Ngilu who is seen by the Kamba people as a traitor. If she joins Raila’s ODM-K, as most people expect, she will be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. But she too knows what she is doing as backing Raila means an assured nominated seat in Parliament.

In the final analysis the present fighting in almost all the major parties in the country may end up with only Raila and Mwai Kibaki fighting out to the bitter end. In that fight Kibaki is not as weak as he was during the referendum because today the issues dividing the people of Kenya are very different. The Orange’s strength has considerably weakened. If things do not change from what they are today the fight in December will be very bitter between those two candidates and Kibaki may end up in State House for the second time. His majority however will be considerably smaller this time compared to the votes he got in 2002.