No winner in the fight between two ODMs!

The acceptance of the original ODM by Raila Odinga from Mugambi Imanyara poses a number of questions: Has he surrendered ODM-K to Kalonzo? Will he still organize a delegate’s conference to endorse his leadership and pave the way to straightforwardly getting a presidential ticket? Was he all the time the real owner of Imanyara’s ODM? Will his game plan be accepted by the voters outside Nyanza Province? Has everyone supporting him read and understood the constitution of ODM?

As Raila will not be able to own two ODM parties, it is obvious he has surrendered ODM-K to Kalonzo, who has all the time claimed the law was on his side. This, in actual fact, means Kalonzo will indeed be the ODM-K presidential candidate. One major advantage he has is that his symbol and the very word ODM-K have now sunk in many a voter’s heads, to an extent that it will not be surprising at all for him to get votes outside Ukambani, as many people think ODM-K is still the most popular party.

On the other hand Raila and his group will now have an uphill task of disowning ODM-K which they will probably call “ODM-Kalonzo” and trying to popularize Mugambi’s ODM which they had earlier on condemned as Mwai Kibaki’s brain child intended to divide the Opposition. Kalonzo will also, most likely, call the original ODM “Odinga ODM” making Mwai Kibaki laugh all the way back to State House.

Organizing a delegates’ conference at a cost of at least four million shillings just to endorse Raila now looks unnecessary; but without a delegates conference people like Musalia Mudavadi may be accused by his people of Kakamega of cowardice, costing him a parliamentary seat as indeed happened in 2002 when he was the country’s Vice President. To Mudavadi accepting to be Raila’s Vice President can be extremely risky.

Apart from Musalia Mudavadi, who would like a delegate’s conference in order to take part in some form of contest before losing to Raila and accepting the Vice Presidency after missing the Presidency, people like William Ruto, Najib Balala, and Joseph Nyagah will back a delegates conference so as to be part of the pact that may offer them some powerful positions in Raila’s Government. The offer will then be used as a campaign platform to go back to Parliament. Other MPs backing Raila are only after ODM tickets to make them also go back to Parliament. To avoid both unnecessary expenses and getting his hand tied up in a memorandum of understanding, Raila may also avoid a delegates’ conference.

The question of whether or not Raila was all the time the man behind Mugambi’s ODM did not appear to bother anyone at a Press Conference on 14th August when the former was handing over the party to the later; but eyebrows must have risen quite considerably when Mugambi declared, without being asked by anyone, that he was not an extortionist. Had he in fact sold his party to Raila? That will always remain a secret between the two. All that Kenyans can remember is that Raila was one of the people who once called Mugambi a Government project to weaken the real ODM which at that time was ODM-K. Was Mugambi in fact all this time a Raila project? That, again, only Mugambi and Raila can tell, but will they ever do so? Time alone will tell.

Raila’s latest game plan will be most welcome in the whole of Luo Nyanza where the majority of the people want to see their man ending up at State House; but how many supporters of the politicians who attended the Raila- Mugambi Press conference will accept that real democracy took place in ODM on August 14th? Again time alone will tell but the real threat of the original ODM still remains a primary election to nominate ODM candidates. That is when Raila will come out in his true colours and back only those who have been genuinely elected by the people. Raila knows his political survival, as a powerful ODM presidential candidate, depends on a properly organised primary election throughout the country except in Nyanza, where he will still handpick his party candidates.

If Kalonzo organises a genuine delegates’ conference and allows his supporters to conduct a democratic election before conducting a truly democratic primary election, then the old ODM will be faced by a very strong challenger in ODM-K. Parties backing President Kibaki will only survive if they too conduct primary elections. Primary elections in Kenya will be forced on politicians, who have survived through decades by owning political parties.

Now the people are demanding the ownership of all political parties that claim to be popular. The process of conducting genuine primary elections will see many political heads rolling and may very soon have to be officially taken over by the Electoral Commission. Unfortunately the new Political Parties Bill 2007 does not make that recommendation though the Bill has gone through First and Second Reading.

As the leader of ODM-K, which he claims is a party of parties; Kalonzo obviously hopes Kanu and LPK will join him and form a formidable group. It is very doubtful whether Uhuru Kenyatta will back the move due to the influence of retired President Daniel arap Moi who wants to keep the independence party away from both ODMs. Uhuru’s plan, which is more or less the same as that of the Shirikisho Party, is to join whoever wins the next Presidential election and be in the next Government.

The constitution of the original ODM has not been made public but it is obvious the party belongs to Raila and he has already chosen party leaders who will never oppose him now or in the future. The idea of creating national positions to be distributed along tribal lines has always been Raila’s tactic to gain the support of the non Luos, but, this time, it is faced with a Herculean problem of changing the country’s constitution, which must be supported by at least a two third majority of members of Parliament in the National Assembly. Paradoxically Members of Parliament are now boycotting the Assembly until the Government approves their ridiculous golden handshake that will amount to stealing billions from the taxpayers of Kenya. Getting the Constitution of Kenya changed to create various national positions Raila needs to keep his party strong is like building castles in the air.