The error of ignoring Moi

Retired President Daniel Arap Moi’s open support for Mwai Kibaki is a serious blow to both ODM’s Raila Odinga and ODM-K’s Kalonzo Musyoka. The move is most certainly likely to win Kibaki a huge pile of Kalenjin votes which he desperately needs. To the Tugens, Elgeyos, Marakwet and Saboats, Moi is still a powerful leader. He is also an extremely respected elder of the African Inland Church which has a huge following in the Rift Valley. All these groups will obediently comply with Mio’s directive to vote for Kibaki. Raila is likely to get the Nandi and Kipsigis votes which he will still have to share with Kalonzo.

As a consummate politician of the old school party discipline which helped him stay in power for 24 years, Moi is bound to be among the first to smell a rat in the manner in which both ODMs’ presidential nominations were organized. The most conspicuous abnormality of the two parties was the fact that they had no manifestos to talk about. Instead they had individual leaders’ policies which they have marketed on personal basis. Each party has leaders who claim to be united yet they openly differ ideologically. These abnormalities will most likely be trumpeted by Moi when he starts campaigning for Kibaki.

Moi’s suspicion was corroborated by the ODM-K's presidential nominations on August 31st and that of ODM on September 1st when the two parties conducted nominations without elected national officials holding any office. Whereas ODM-K could claim its delegates were made up of party elected branch officials, ODM delegates were merely handpicked and those suspected of not agrees with the party owner were simply locked out of the entire exercise. Yet the media gave the two incidents maximum publicity with minimum criticism.

When Moi hits the road to start real active campaigning for Mwai Kibaki, he is likely to point these anomalies out in a language the people will understand . He will therefore easily prove that the two parties are indeed personal properties of the candidates who won the nominations. The highly publicized presidential nomination exercises were no more than circuses which will give Moi a lot of ammunition to tear them into pieces. During the so called secret balloting at Kasarani the leaders kept talking about the high standard of democratic transparency in the two parties which was mysteriously achieved without national elections in both parties and in the case of ODM without even a constitutionally accepted list of members or delegates.

The two exercises must have had an arm and a leg as their price tags yet no one knows who actually footed the bills though it is not heard to imagine. The more spectacular the show was, the more expensive it must have become and Moi will have a field day in describing how a handful of sycophants were transported to Nairobi to endorse predetermined leaders in the name of nomination through secret ballot. This is a road Moi has traveled for more than two decades and will be quick to identify those who try to emulate him .

To a keen observer of the events of the two ODM presidential nominations, serious attempts were made to bring about the 2005 referendum euphoria and change it into a mob force against Mwai Kibaki. The only problem is the fact that the two groups are this time divided into bitter enemies that can only benefit Kibaki’s side. Besides, this time there are no powerful church groups which helped to swell the numbers of the referendum Orange group which, incidentally, was made even more powerful by Moi’s backing .

Being the shrewd politician he is, Moi is likely to use his Luhya friends to magnify the “loss” of the community at the ODM nomination and challenge the Raila’s offer of the number two position to Musalia Mudavadi. Like it has been suggested before, Moi will urge his Luhya loyalists to reject the offer which the Luhyas already have in Moody Awori. Right from the beginning Mudavadi did not seem very eager to oppose Raila and he actually participated in the nomination in the most lackadaisical manner – a tactic that ended up making Raila reap maximum benefit; but which may cause Mudavadi a very heavy damage back home in Western Province.

As the architect of the mlolongo voting system and an excellent manipulator of both the Electoral Commission and the Provincial Administration during elections, Moi will be an extremely useful advisor to Mwai Kibaki this time. Executive powers will most certainly be used by Kibaki to create huddles for both Raila and Kalonzo when the final race for the Presidency reaches its final stages. Samuel Kivuitu’s term of office as the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, for example, comes to an end in December, just before Kenyans go to the polls and the role Moi will play in advising Kibaki on how to fill the post will be sure to pose a great danger to free and fair elections.

So far Raila has survived by the use of clever tactics which were perfected by Moi when he was in office. These include the manipulation of the mass media and maximum use of ethnic loyalty which Kibaki will now learn to make use of from the master tactician which Moi happens to be. It was therefore not for nothing that a lot of Opposition politicians cried foul when Moi made his announcement to back Kibaki.

During the referendum, areas that were dominated by either banana or orange returned ridiculous 100 per cent support for whatever stand they took, which means ballot boxes somehow were filled up by returning officers. Unless some very drastic steps are taken in the proper organization of the electoral process during the December polling, a similar tactic is bound to be repeated and when that happens Moi will be handy to advice Kibaki on what steps to take to remain in power.

As Musalia Mudavadi warned at Kasarani, this time there are 14 million registered voters and in a situation like that the Opposition has to work extra hard to make sure something unbecoming does not take place in the remote areas. With Moi sitting next to Kibaki during these elections it would be foolhardy to write off the former President’s influence in having an effect on the results.