PNU: A Formidable One-Man Party

The launching of the Party of National Unity as a platform to provide President Mwai Kibaki with a ticket to contest the next presidential elections seems to be a very well calculated scheme to bring together five political parties that are sure to win parliamentary seats in specific areas where the two ODMs will find it difficult to penetrate. These areas are a huge part of the Rift Valley, the entire Central Province, the Miji Kenda, Taita and Taveta areas of the Coast Province, large areas of Eastern Province, a section Western Province and a number of constituencies in the North Eastern Province where Kanu is still popular.

The decision is also likely to minimize the Kikuyu stigma that has been attached to almost every political party formed by Kibaki and his friends. When he formed the Democratic Party before the first multi-party elections 1992 his opponents accused him of establishing a tribal party for the people of the Mount Kenya region. The stigma was inherited by Nark Kenya which is still very popular in the region. Now it is Kibaki’s turn to accuse the two ODMs of being tribal political parties. Whereas ODM-K is mainly a party of the Kamba people, ODM too can be said to be a party of tribal leaders. It was in fact an outcome of a joint endeavour by tribal elders from Luo, Kalenjin and Luhya ethnic groups. Former President Daniel arap Moi openly says he supports Kibaki mainly because ha cannot, after leading this nation for 24 years, back any tribal political institution.

Kibaki is likely to be the only candidate that will seek election through the PNU ticket baked by Kanu, Ford Kenya, Ford People, Shirikisho and Narc-Kenya which will all sponsor candidates for both parliamentary and local government elections. Long before official campaigning has started the five parties seem to have established specific areas of the country where they are popular and likely to win. Though there are a lot of parties claiming to back Mwai Kibaki’s reelection, the five seem to have been carefully selected because of their popularity in their regions.

The clever move is also bound to keep Mwai Kibaki away from the internal wangles that are likely to erupt during the civic and parliamentary nominations in all the political parties including ODM and ODM-K. If the nominations will be free and fair, a number of the incumbent MPs will be shown the door by the voters and will never get their previous parties’ tickets that won them parliamentary and civic seats. Indeed Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka will be better off in their campaigns without the current MPs whom the people despise, disrespect and even loathe.

The choice by Mwai Kibaki of the five parties to sponsor him, rather than well over a dozen of them, will serve to reduce the chaos that was beginning to take shape in the scramble for the support for the President. Indeed a number of the parties that are singing the “Kibaki Tena” song do not exist beyond the briefcases in which their registration certificates are kept.

Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu has the majority of seats in the opposition benches and, with the support of retired President Daniel arap Moi, the party is still capable of winning a number of seats in the Rift Valley and North Eastern provinces; Simion Nyachae’s Ford People , is bound to win some seats in the Kisii area; Musikari Kombo’s Ford Kenya , is sure to win some seats in the Western Province ; Ali Makwere’s Shirikisho Party, which is proving to be very popular in the Coast, may win the majority of seats in that province and Raphael Tuju’s Nark Kenya is bound to win a number of seats in both the Central Province and a number of urban areas.

With a reduced number of presidential candidates and an increased number of political parties many voters will have quite a headache in choosing the next MP ; but as far as presidential candidates are concerned many Kenyans have already made up their minds. Today it is extremely difficult to criticize some of the presidential candidates in certain parts of the country as the people have already made their choice. But for parliamentary seats parties will do as well as they conduct their nominations in the next general elections. Those that handpick their candidates, as has been the case in the past, may live to regret it this time as the people are getting wiser and more educated about their political rights.

Of all the Kibaki supporters none has caused more damage to Raila Odinga’s ODM than Uhuru Kenyatta who has moved with the larger part of the party used by his father, Jomo Kenyatta, to fight for Kenya’s independence. He has been accused of abdicating his position as the leader of the Opposition in Parliament and thus betraying the anti Kibaki wave in the country; but Uhuru support for the President’s candidature does not in any manner indicate that he intends to quit the leadership of the Opposition in Parliament. As far as he is concerned he has taken the controversial step only to make his party be in the next Government to be formed by Kibaki after the elections, but not the current one.

In an effort to disintegrate PNU, ODM leaders have accused Uhuru of backing Kibaki only because he hopes to succeed him in 2012 when the Constitution will demand the PNU leader to step down. So far a number of leaders including George Saitoti, Martha Karua, George Saitoti and Kiraitu Murungi have declared their interest to succeed Kibaki and if Uhuru appears like the anointed son then the others are supposed to be annoyed with Kibaki. This propaganda however is not likely to be taken seriously by anyone since all political parties, including Kanu, will be interested in occupying State House after Kibaki.

As Kibaki, Raila and Kalonzo prepare for the final battle, one prominent politician who appears to have a lot of difficulties to determine who to support is Charity Ngilu, who is in fact, torn between the three contestants. Whereas she serves in Kibaki’s Cabinet her heart is with Raila Odinga while her constituents demand that she either supports Kalonzo or face the wrath of the voters. If she gets a strong opponent who obtains Kalonzo’s backing she may very well lose her elected seat in Parliament.

All in all, the PNU appears to have been formed after all the possible consequences and all the potential harmful pitfalls likely to pull it apart have been examined and avoided. It is a formidable party likely to pave the way back to State House for Mwai Kibaki.