Majimboism is a Time Bomb!

Majimboism is a time bomb about to explode. When it does, heads will role and someone is bound to lose the race to State House. To Mwai Kibaki and former President Daniel arap Moi, Majimboism is a recipe for tribal clashes that may even snowball into something more serious. They give examples of Rwanda and Biafra ethnic wars which literally saw rivers of blood flowing due to xenophobic bigotry.

To Raila Odinga and supporters of ODM, Majimboism is the answer to most of the economic problems caused by the concentration of political powers into few hands thus creating a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots. Leaders of ODM-K don’t seem to have a common stand on Majimboism. Whereas the party’s presidential candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, has been talking in favour of the policy, his spokesman and the party Secretary General, Mutula Kilonzo, has described it as a snake pit.

Whether the voters accept or reject Majimboism, the result will be a painful rejection of a major party’s policy. If it is rejected the bomb will explode on ODM and if it is accepted, PNU will sink with its policy of unitary and powerful central government. Whatever the case may be, the three major parties will have to explain in an unambiguous and quite convincing language, the stand they take on Majimboism in the manifestos they have yet to launch. The fact that the country is divided between the three political parties along regional lines, long before any manifesto has been launched, means ethnicity will play a major role in determining whether or not to accept Majimboism.

Though they will not publicly accept it, almost all the political parties in Kenya are made up of powerful tribal leaders who command immense despotic powers in the areas of their origin. Indeed the genesis of ODM was an open tribal meeting between Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin elders representing Raila Odinga , Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto who agreed to cooperate in order to snatch political power from the people from Mount Kenya region. The idea of Majimboism is popularized by the notion that it will encourage the distribution of the national cake more equitably throughout the country, as opposed to the perception that the present day government financially benefits a small Mount Kenya group of tycoons close to Mwai Kibaki, more than it benefits the people outside the Central Province.

When thinking of economic benefits that can come out of Majimboism, as it is preached by the ODM, many Kenyans support the policy; but when they think of tribal clashes that could possibly originate from the same policy, they don’t want to touch it with a barge pole. The success or failure of Majimboism as a policy in Kenya will depend entirely on the manner in which its two conflicting interpretations are delivered to the people. So far all sorts of propaganda are spread by both camps and the powerful Catholic Church has openly decided to condemn it.

Among the most lethal tales told about Majimboism is that it will give the current provinces so much autonomy that some of them, like the North Eastern Province, may opt to introduce Islamic Sheria Law as soon as the new policy is introduced. The very thought of the introduction of Sheria Law in Kenya is bound to make the majority of Kenyans automatically reject Majimboism.

While backing the policy, Raila Odinga claims it is among the Bomas constitutional proposals rejected by the Kibaki regime, but supported by the majority of the people of Kenya. That argument is likely to bring into close examination the Bomas constitutional proposals and make them an election issue to the advantage of ODM, which hopes to get the 2005 Orange referendum crowd on its side. Unfortunately the powerful Churches, which influenced that crowd two years ago, this time, seem to be opposed to Majimboism and they are preaching against it from the pulpit.

The other story told against Majimboism is that its implementation will create xenophobic feeling which will make Kenyans call other Kenyans “foreigners” simply because they come from a different part of the country. Indeed that kind of feeling has caused serious tribal clashes in the Rift Valley and at the Coast provinces. The memory of those two clashes is bound to harbour very negative feelings about Majimboism among Kenyans. Today there are many Kenyans who were born and bred outside the regions of their ancestors, and if all of a sudden they were asked to go back home; only trouble could be the outcome of that eventuality.

In favour of Majimboism are stories of economic prosperity that will be spread across the country benefiting all citizens. Politicians backing Majimboism talk of the creation of new jobs throughout the country because of devolution of political and economic powers. They give many examples of countries where federalism has worked successfully such as India and United States. Supporters of Majimboism normally presuppose that the country unanimously accepted the Bomas constitutional proposals. They hardly ever talk about constitutional huddles to be cleared before such a constitution is introduced in the country. To them the Bomas constitution has been accepted by the people and it will be implemented as soon as Kibaki is out of power.

As the country becomes preoccupied with the debate on Majimboism another highly sensitive election issue seems o have been temporarily forgotten. And that is the inevitable nomination for both parliamentary and local government candidates. So far candidates have shown interest in the three major political parties – ODM, ODM-K and PNU. Of the three PNU seems to have a much bigger problem because within it are a number of political parties such as Shirikisho and New Ford-Kenya that seem to be rather reluctant to participate in a joint nomination process.

With rivalry within PNU threatening to tear the party into pieces before it has even crystallized, Mwai Kibaki seems to be sailing in very troubles waters. That, however, does not mean that all is well in the two ODM parties. They too have to face primary elections in the form of nomination of parliamentary and civic candidates. They have to come up with acceptable manifestos that simplify the policy of Majimboism to the voters. Whatever happens, this year’s general elections promises to be a battle of giants which could be quite bloody. And the war will be fought in the battlefields of tribalism and Majimboism.