Kenya in a Cesspool of Tribalism

At long last, Kenya has plunged into a cesspool of banana republics so ubiquitous in Africa that the continent today seems to deserve the title “Dark Continent” without sounding as derogatory as it used to. Like most African countries, Kenya can no longer pride itself of being an island of peace in a sea of turmoil. Neither can it claim to be capable of conducting a transparent, free and fair election. Very much like the majority of African countries, it has proved to be quite accomplished in staging bloody conflicts that come close to ethnic cleansing. Today it is quite clear that, similar to the majority of African countries, Kenya has such ambitious political leaders who are quite willing to sacrifice lives of their own people for the sake of political power.

The country is torn between ODM and PNU followers ready to die for their political parties without caring much about the fact that none of the two are more than personal properties of Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki. The two “political parties” have never held any elections and can hardly claim to be democratic. They both came into existence just before elections as cheap vehicles to State House. PNU is a party that basically brings together Kikuyus, Embus and Merus from around Mount Kenya whereas ODM brings together Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas for the sole purpose of removing Kikuyus from power.

Soon after Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the hotly contested Presidential elections, the tribes that back ODM literally started slaughtering the tribes that belong to the PNU. Paradoxically the clashes mainly took place in the slums of the city of Nairobi, Kisumu, Mombasa, Eldoret and Kericho. Peasants who were settled in the Rift Valley from Central Province were also targeted and finally reduced to internally displaced people. In areas of the city and other towns where middleclass Kenyans of all ethnic groups live harmoniously, there were hardly any disturbances at all. To these Kenyans it did not matter much whether Raila or Kibaki became the president of the country though there exits a latent xenophobic nationalism among each one of them.

No one knows what would have happened if Raila had been declared the winner. The Kikuyus do not appear to have been prepared for any clashes in that eventuality though ODM has claimed those doing the slaughtering in the city slums are members of the outlawed Mugiki, which is a Kikuyu terror gang. An agreement between leaders of tribes in the ODM had specifically indicated that Musalia Mudavadi, the Luhya leader, would have been the Vice President and William Ruto, the Kalenjin leader, would have been the Prime Minister. With the three holding the highest positions in the Government many top jobs within the Government would have gone to members of their tribes. Kibaki’s victory is therefore seen as a missed opportunity to get top jobs by the Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas, hence the revolt in the slums where feelings cannot be submerged.

Mwai Kibaki’s efforts to form a Government of National Unity (GNU) is seen by ODM as the continuation of status quo where the majority of most important positions in the Government are held by members of Kikuyu , Embu or Meru. A GNU would still give Kibaki a lot of powers constitutionally. He would still be in a position to hire, fire, promote and demote. Due to international pressure ODM seems to be getting closer to agreeing to the formation of a coalition government that would give them powers to select any position in Kibaki’s government.

A coalition government would also give ODM the right to walk out at any time rendering Kibaki a political cripple. In parliament PNU is already a cripple. It has only 43 out of 207 seats. As a Government it needs the cooperation of Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-K which has 16 seats. In a GNU Musyoka could easily become a Vice President and the Leader of Government Business in Parliament. Even then PNU would still desperately need the support of Kanu which has 14 seats, which mean another important position for Uhuru Kenyatta, the party’s leader. Safina, which has five seats, is allowed to nominate one MP who most likely will be Paul Muite, the party chairman.

If Kibaki does not appoint Muite a Minister, the Safina leader’s rebellious tendencies are likely to benefit ODM more than PNU in Parliament. All other parliamentary parties – Nark-K (with four MPs), Narc (with three MPs), Ford-P (with three MPs), CCP (with two MPs), PICK (with two MPs), New Ford-K (with two MPs), DP (with two MPs), Sisi kwa Sisi (with two MPs) and PPK, Mazingira, Kenda, UDM, Kaddu, Ford-K, PDP, NLP, Kadu-A, Ford-A ( with an MP each) – will demand to be in the Cabinet to keep the Government alive.

If ODM does not join the Government, Kibaki’s second term will have the weakest regime in the recent political history of Kenya. A vote of no confidence could force the country to have another election in an extremely short time. Whether the country can afford or is ready for such an election is anyone’s guess. Besides anything else, there will be a need to establish a credible electoral commission to organize such an election. The current commission’s chairman Samuel Kivuitu will have to be replaced as he no longer commands the countrywide respect he used to before he declared Kibaki the winner.

If, on the other hand, ODM agrees to either join Kibaki’s government of national unity or form a coalition one with him, it will still be an extremely unstable administration made up of bitter enemies out to politically eliminate one another. Ethnicity will be rampant and xenophobia widespread. So what are the chances of Majimboism? ODM will say that that is obviously the answer and PNU will say we have just tasted the dangers of Majimboism. Nothing short of genuine dialogue devoid of ethnic nationalism can save Kenya from the terrible pit it happens to be in at the moment.