Kibaki in a Tight Corner

Mwai Kibaki is in a tight political corner. He rejects Raila Odinga at his own peril. The country expects the two to unite and avoid another bloodbath. Yet he accepts to form a coalition government with the ODM leader at the risk of being outmaneuvered and outshined by the master of political intrigue in Kenya. Whenever the two decide to form a coalition government, however, they will provide a great weight lift off the people who are on the verge of going back to the tragedy of last year’s disputed presidential election. The people are growing more and more impatient as they wait for a new Cabinet acceptable to the two leaders.

To save this nation the two will have to be guided by the Constitution which has, for more than four decades, continued to authenticate the various authorities that have symbolized the Government’s legitimacy and its acceptability to the people. In matters of governance the Constitution is so important that it had to be changed to accommodate Raila Odinga as a powerful Prime Minister.

That notwithstanding, Section 23 of the Constitution clearly says the executive authority of the Government of Kenya shall vest in the President and may be exercised by him either directly or through officers subordinate to him. One of those people subordinate to the President who will be enjoying and exercising executive authority will be the Prime Minister who under Section 4(1) a, b, and c of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, shall have the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, including those of Ministries.

Obviously there is a lot of jealousy within Mwai Kibaki’s PNU because in the final analysis Raila becomes the most powerful person in Kenya after the President. Yes, indeed the Constitution is also clear in Section 15 about the Vice President being the principal assistant of the President in the discharge of his functions. With the existence of a Prime Minister, however, the functions of the Vice President cannot include the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, technically making the Prime Minister extremely powerful in the entire Government.

There is a clique within PNU which is extremely uncomfortable with that state of affairs. The clique tried to distribute leaflets to Members of Parliament to make them reject the Constitutional amendment to create the office of the Prime Minister, but the whole exercise aborted when it was quite clear that the majority of the legislators did indeed back Raila Odinga as the most suitable person to hold that high office. The clique is obviously trying another method – that of diluting the significance of portfolios to be held by ODM ministers. The clique does not mind Kalonzo Musyoka holding the office of the Vice President.

Though the Vice President will continue to be the Leader of Government Business in Parliament, it is the Prime Minister who will always garner more political limelight due to his charismatic personality and actual powers given to him by the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008. His self confidence has always boosted his ego in whatever political camp he joins and whatever he does in the game. These characteristics of Raila Odinga make many in the PNU scared of him and therefore continue to plan for his downfall. Part of the strategy is to keep him as far away from President Kibaki as it is possible.

One of the reasons for the desperate campaign against Raila Odinga becoming a powerful Prime Minister is the fact that once he is in power the corrupt will never continue to swindle the Government through bogus contracts as theft from the Government will be more likely to be controlled if not eliminated altogether. In the midst of Raila’s political enemies are extremely powerful and rich people .Among the ministries they do not want to surrender to the ODM are geese that lay golden eggs.

When the ODM make a tough demand of setting very hard conditions to be fulfilled before they join Kibaki’s Government in a coalition, the happiest people are Raila’s enemies in PNU because they know the stiffer the conditions the less likely for Kibaki to accept them, hence keeping Raila out of Premier’s office for a long time. Accepting Kibaki’s offer as it stands may be a tactical calculation to get into the Government in order to clean it up from within.

But Raila’s problems are not in the PNU only. Some of them are to be found in the ODM itself. There are some very ambitious people in the ODM who would not only want to be ministers in the coalition Government but also high officials of the party itself. So far the party has not held any elections as such. Members of the so called Pentagon were hand picked by Raila himself and they know if they are not careful they could be shown the door. Despite the tough stand taken by the party, Raila could join hands with Kibaki any time he so wishes without anyone’s permission. This was exemplified by his spokesman’s announcement that he is still willing to negotiate with Mwai Kibaki despite his party’s official announcement rejecting such negotiations.

The greedy in ODM are also hoping to get top jobs within the Government including ambassadorial positions and powerful Permanent Secretaries’ posts. This they cannot legally achieve as Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says in subsection 2 that the powers to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Ambassador, High Commissioner or other principal representative of Kenya in another country, and to remove from office a person holding or acting in any such office, shall vest in the President.

Portfolio balance suggested by Section 4(3) of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, seems to concern itself only with political positions held by elected politicians appointed to ministerial positions. It also does not seem to include Permanent Secretaries as some ODM leaders would like us to believe. Subsection one of Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says the power to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Permanent Secretary, Secretary to the Cabinet or Director of Personnel shall vest in the President.

ODM may very well have a valid point when they claim that Francis Muthaura, as the current Secretary to the Cabinet, does not appear to be eager to see the coalition government taking over power in the country. Indeed that could be quite suicidal for him. But the Orange party can do nothing about Muthaura as only the President can fire him. If and when Raila becomes the Prime Minister, however, Muthaura’s powers will have to be reduced as he will have to work under the Prime Minister who presumably will also be the Minister for Cabinet Affairs.

One of the reasons the PNU is calling for a general election is to deny Raila Odinga the opportunity to take over the powerful position of the country’s Prime Minister. Many of the jealous people in the PNU claim that the unions between their party, Kanu and ODM-K plus a number of small parties could, after an election, constitute the majority in Parliament if they conduct a joint campaign. Be that as it may, going back to the people could be an extremely dangerous thing for Kibaki to do , as his team may very well be rejected by the people who see the lot them as a major obstacle in the formation of the Cabinet , which the whole country is now eagerly waiting for. An election may give the people the opportunity to reelect Raila Odinga as the leader of this country with an even bigger majority. Besides that, Kibaki may not take the risk of dissolving the current Parliament as he may not be allowed by the law to run for a third time.