Kibaki wins Raila-Kalonzo battle!

In the Raila-Kalonzo fight for seniority only Mwai Kibaki is the winner. Just about five months ago both Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka were calling President Kibaki all sorts of names and asking the voters to reject him for being too old, incompetent and chauvinistic. Today the former ODM partners accept Kibaki as the undisputed President of the Republic and therefore the number one leader in Kenya. All that the two are fighting for now is the number two position after Mwai Kibaki.

The paradoxical mystery is that the two fighting politicians seem to have totally forgotten that to win the bitter presidential race between all the three them, Kibaki used clever and unorthodox manipulation of the Electoral Commission, the Judiciary, the police force and Mungiki. And now he seems to be using his Vice President and Prime Minister to remain in power without anyone questioning his legitimacy.

Yes, a lot of water has flown under the bridge since last year’s elections. Before the country arrived at the current political situation, blood of the innocent was poured, homes of the guiltless were destroyed, and more than half a million blameless people are still spending nights in the bitter cold of the rainy season. Besides that, a shocked international community had to intervene to frame up an acceptable peace accord which has made Kenyans lay down their arms without really arriving at any peaceful solution to the problems created by the flawed presidential election. Was all this spontaneous or did Kibaki plan the whole scenario that ended up in him getting accepted as the country’s undisputed leader for the rest of his term?

To begin with, he must have twisted Samuel Kivuitu’s arm to announce the doubtful presidential results when the country was not sure who had actually won. He must have used the Judiciary to swear him in at the speed of lightening. He must have also known that that would have led to a countrywide bloodshed, as indeed it did, so he used the police to contain the situation; and when matters got really out of hand, the Mungiki stepped it. To date there are no Mungiki killers who have appeared in court as a result of the post election conflicts, yet police cells are full of people who are suspected of planning and executing the anti Kikuyu ethnic cleansing that took place in the Rift Valley during that sad part of Kenya’s history.

How much influence did Kibaki have in the drafting of the National Accord and Reconciliation Bill, 2008? If he had any influence then he must have been responsible for Section 3(1) which describes the appointment of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers in such a manner as to make them Government rather than national figures. The Section says there shall be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya and two Deputy Prime Ministers who shall be appointed by the President. On the other hand Section 15(1) of the Constitution of Kenya says there shall be a Vice President of Kenya, who shall be appointed by the President. The Government of Kenya is not the same thing as the Republic of Kenya. Looking at these two makes the position of the Prime Minister appear to be a little bit inferior to that of the Vice President.

Yet it is the Accord that gives the Prime Ministers powers that the Vice President can only dream of. Section 4(2) of the Accord, for example, gives the Prime Minister powers to nominate Ministers and Assistant Ministers from political parties that are partners in the coalition Government. The Accord gives Raila more powers than Kalonzo by suggesting in Section 4(3) that the composition of the coalition Government shall at all times reflect the relative parliamentary strength of the respective parties and shall at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance. Looking at the number of Ministries controlled by ODM, which is controlled by Raila Odinga , makes the Prime Minister an extremely powerful person who can bring the whole Government to an end if he so wishes.

The other argument in favour of the Prime Minister is the fact that the accord was signed between two parties- the ODM and PNU. When Kibaki signed the accord he was doing so on behalf of Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-K as much as Raila signed it on behalf of Charity Ngilu’s Narc. The equal partnership the Accord talks about is between Raila and Kibaki. So looking at the Accord alone without the Constitution, Raila is the obvious number two to Kibaki.

An issue that has still got cobwebs, which need to be cleared, is whether or not the Accord is superior to the Constitution or vice versa because the manner in which the Constitution was changed to include the Prime Minister obviously lists the new position after that of the Vice President making Kalonzo Musyoka constitutionally the number two man in the political scene of Kenya. Section 11 of the Constitution, which talks of the exercise of President’s functions during absence or illness, also gives the Vice President an upper hand.

On the other hand the accord, which has Raila’s signature and not Kalonzo’s, talks of “real power sharing” as partners in coalition Government and also clearly says the agreement is to create an environment conducive to such partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence.

As the Vice President fights the Prime Minister to get recognized as the country’s second most powerful political leader, Kenya is once again torn between two groups made up of either Raila’s supporters or his enemies. Those supporting him use the National Accord and Reconciliation Bill, 2008, which, by and large, recognizes him as Kibaki’s equal partner in the formation of a coalition Government. Those opposing him have a tendency to look at the amended Constitution of Kenya, which lists the position of the Prime Minister after those of the President and the Vice President.

Raila’s friends are hoping that he will be the man to take over from Kibaki after 2012 when the old man constitutionally steps down. These include the majority of the voters of Kenya for the simple reason that during the disturbances and negotiations for peace, Raila came out as the real statesman who was willing to turn the other chick, when others won’t, for the sake of the country’s peace and stability. Secondly, it also comes out clearly that Raila was not putting all his eggs in the basket of the country’s presidency. He was willing to become the country’s Prime Minister and possibly prepare for a much simpler battle to win in 2012. Much simpler because almost the whole country, including the ordinary voters in the Central Province this time, seems to be behind him. Thirdly, Raila is obviously ahead of everyone else’s strategy because, as the Prime Minister, he has a greater opportunity of changing Kenya into a fully fledged parliamentary system which will give him unchallenged political power for unlimited time. All depends on Parliament changing the Constitution and getting rid of the present set up which still gives the President a lot of powers.

This, however, cannot be done with a large group of rebellious MPs still angry for not getting any position in the Kibaki- Raila cabinet and still threatening to form a Grand Opposition. The Grand Opposition planned by, among others, Ababu Namwamba and Chris Okemo, is therefore more dangerous to Raila than Kalonzo Musyoka, who cannot harm the Prime Minister politically in any way, shape or form, even if the VP is given the constitutional number two position he claims to have.

The war between Kalonzo and Raila may look petty, but it makes Kibaki comfortably happy as the unchallenged President till his term comes to an end. And, unfortunately, it puts the country into another uncalled for cold war.

May be the most important food for thoughts for all the fighting leaders, plus President Mwai Kibaki, comes from the preamble of the Accord which says the agreement was not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole.

The Accord says it “provides the means to implement a coherent and far reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure prosperous Kenya for all.” Is it so difficult for Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga to put those noble words into practice?