The launching of the Party of National Unity as a platform to provide President Mwai Kibaki with a ticket to contest the next presidential elections seems to be a very well calculated scheme to bring together five political parties that are sure to win parliamentary seats in specific areas where the two ODMs will find it difficult to penetrate. These areas are a huge part of the Rift Valley, the entire Central Province, the Miji Kenda, Taita and Taveta areas of the Coast Province, large areas of Eastern Province, a section Western Province and a number of constituencies in the North Eastern Province where Kanu is still popular.
The decision is also likely to minimize the Kikuyu stigma that has been attached to almost every political party formed by Kibaki and his friends. When he formed the Democratic Party before the first multi-party elections 1992 his opponents accused him of establishing a tribal party for the people of the Mount Kenya region. The stigma was inherited by Nark Kenya which is still very popular in the region. Now it is Kibaki’s turn to accuse the two ODMs of being tribal political parties. Whereas ODM-K is mainly a party of the Kamba people, ODM too can be said to be a party of tribal leaders. It was in fact an outcome of a joint endeavour by tribal elders from Luo, Kalenjin and Luhya ethnic groups. Former President Daniel arap Moi openly says he supports Kibaki mainly because ha cannot, after leading this nation for 24 years, back any tribal political institution.
Kibaki is likely to be the only candidate that will seek election through the PNU ticket baked by Kanu, Ford Kenya, Ford People, Shirikisho and Narc-Kenya which will all sponsor candidates for both parliamentary and local government elections. Long before official campaigning has started the five parties seem to have established specific areas of the country where they are popular and likely to win. Though there are a lot of parties claiming to back Mwai Kibaki’s reelection, the five seem to have been carefully selected because of their popularity in their regions.
The clever move is also bound to keep Mwai Kibaki away from the internal wangles that are likely to erupt during the civic and parliamentary nominations in all the political parties including ODM and ODM-K. If the nominations will be free and fair, a number of the incumbent MPs will be shown the door by the voters and will never get their previous parties’ tickets that won them parliamentary and civic seats. Indeed Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka will be better off in their campaigns without the current MPs whom the people despise, disrespect and even loathe.
The choice by Mwai Kibaki of the five parties to sponsor him, rather than well over a dozen of them, will serve to reduce the chaos that was beginning to take shape in the scramble for the support for the President. Indeed a number of the parties that are singing the “Kibaki Tena” song do not exist beyond the briefcases in which their registration certificates are kept.
Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu has the majority of seats in the opposition benches and, with the support of retired President Daniel arap Moi, the party is still capable of winning a number of seats in the Rift Valley and North Eastern provinces; Simion Nyachae’s Ford People , is bound to win some seats in the Kisii area; Musikari Kombo’s Ford Kenya , is sure to win some seats in the Western Province ; Ali Makwere’s Shirikisho Party, which is proving to be very popular in the Coast, may win the majority of seats in that province and Raphael Tuju’s Nark Kenya is bound to win a number of seats in both the Central Province and a number of urban areas.
With a reduced number of presidential candidates and an increased number of political parties many voters will have quite a headache in choosing the next MP ; but as far as presidential candidates are concerned many Kenyans have already made up their minds. Today it is extremely difficult to criticize some of the presidential candidates in certain parts of the country as the people have already made their choice. But for parliamentary seats parties will do as well as they conduct their nominations in the next general elections. Those that handpick their candidates, as has been the case in the past, may live to regret it this time as the people are getting wiser and more educated about their political rights.
Of all the Kibaki supporters none has caused more damage to Raila Odinga’s ODM than Uhuru Kenyatta who has moved with the larger part of the party used by his father, Jomo Kenyatta, to fight for Kenya’s independence. He has been accused of abdicating his position as the leader of the Opposition in Parliament and thus betraying the anti Kibaki wave in the country; but Uhuru support for the President’s candidature does not in any manner indicate that he intends to quit the leadership of the Opposition in Parliament. As far as he is concerned he has taken the controversial step only to make his party be in the next Government to be formed by Kibaki after the elections, but not the current one.
In an effort to disintegrate PNU, ODM leaders have accused Uhuru of backing Kibaki only because he hopes to succeed him in 2012 when the Constitution will demand the PNU leader to step down. So far a number of leaders including George Saitoti, Martha Karua, George Saitoti and Kiraitu Murungi have declared their interest to succeed Kibaki and if Uhuru appears like the anointed son then the others are supposed to be annoyed with Kibaki. This propaganda however is not likely to be taken seriously by anyone since all political parties, including Kanu, will be interested in occupying State House after Kibaki.
As Kibaki, Raila and Kalonzo prepare for the final battle, one prominent politician who appears to have a lot of difficulties to determine who to support is Charity Ngilu, who is in fact, torn between the three contestants. Whereas she serves in Kibaki’s Cabinet her heart is with Raila Odinga while her constituents demand that she either supports Kalonzo or face the wrath of the voters. If she gets a strong opponent who obtains Kalonzo’s backing she may very well lose her elected seat in Parliament.
All in all, the PNU appears to have been formed after all the possible consequences and all the potential harmful pitfalls likely to pull it apart have been examined and avoided. It is a formidable party likely to pave the way back to State House for Mwai Kibaki.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Monday, September 3, 2007
The error of ignoring Moi
Retired President Daniel Arap Moi’s open support for Mwai Kibaki is a serious blow to both ODM’s Raila Odinga and ODM-K’s Kalonzo Musyoka. The move is most certainly likely to win Kibaki a huge pile of Kalenjin votes which he desperately needs. To the Tugens, Elgeyos, Marakwet and Saboats, Moi is still a powerful leader. He is also an extremely respected elder of the African Inland Church which has a huge following in the Rift Valley. All these groups will obediently comply with Mio’s directive to vote for Kibaki. Raila is likely to get the Nandi and Kipsigis votes which he will still have to share with Kalonzo.
As a consummate politician of the old school party discipline which helped him stay in power for 24 years, Moi is bound to be among the first to smell a rat in the manner in which both ODMs’ presidential nominations were organized. The most conspicuous abnormality of the two parties was the fact that they had no manifestos to talk about. Instead they had individual leaders’ policies which they have marketed on personal basis. Each party has leaders who claim to be united yet they openly differ ideologically. These abnormalities will most likely be trumpeted by Moi when he starts campaigning for Kibaki.
Moi’s suspicion was corroborated by the ODM-K's presidential nominations on August 31st and that of ODM on September 1st when the two parties conducted nominations without elected national officials holding any office. Whereas ODM-K could claim its delegates were made up of party elected branch officials, ODM delegates were merely handpicked and those suspected of not agrees with the party owner were simply locked out of the entire exercise. Yet the media gave the two incidents maximum publicity with minimum criticism.
When Moi hits the road to start real active campaigning for Mwai Kibaki, he is likely to point these anomalies out in a language the people will understand . He will therefore easily prove that the two parties are indeed personal properties of the candidates who won the nominations. The highly publicized presidential nomination exercises were no more than circuses which will give Moi a lot of ammunition to tear them into pieces. During the so called secret balloting at Kasarani the leaders kept talking about the high standard of democratic transparency in the two parties which was mysteriously achieved without national elections in both parties and in the case of ODM without even a constitutionally accepted list of members or delegates.
The two exercises must have had an arm and a leg as their price tags yet no one knows who actually footed the bills though it is not heard to imagine. The more spectacular the show was, the more expensive it must have become and Moi will have a field day in describing how a handful of sycophants were transported to Nairobi to endorse predetermined leaders in the name of nomination through secret ballot. This is a road Moi has traveled for more than two decades and will be quick to identify those who try to emulate him .
To a keen observer of the events of the two ODM presidential nominations, serious attempts were made to bring about the 2005 referendum euphoria and change it into a mob force against Mwai Kibaki. The only problem is the fact that the two groups are this time divided into bitter enemies that can only benefit Kibaki’s side. Besides, this time there are no powerful church groups which helped to swell the numbers of the referendum Orange group which, incidentally, was made even more powerful by Moi’s backing .
Being the shrewd politician he is, Moi is likely to use his Luhya friends to magnify the “loss” of the community at the ODM nomination and challenge the Raila’s offer of the number two position to Musalia Mudavadi. Like it has been suggested before, Moi will urge his Luhya loyalists to reject the offer which the Luhyas already have in Moody Awori. Right from the beginning Mudavadi did not seem very eager to oppose Raila and he actually participated in the nomination in the most lackadaisical manner – a tactic that ended up making Raila reap maximum benefit; but which may cause Mudavadi a very heavy damage back home in Western Province.
As the architect of the mlolongo voting system and an excellent manipulator of both the Electoral Commission and the Provincial Administration during elections, Moi will be an extremely useful advisor to Mwai Kibaki this time. Executive powers will most certainly be used by Kibaki to create huddles for both Raila and Kalonzo when the final race for the Presidency reaches its final stages. Samuel Kivuitu’s term of office as the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, for example, comes to an end in December, just before Kenyans go to the polls and the role Moi will play in advising Kibaki on how to fill the post will be sure to pose a great danger to free and fair elections.
So far Raila has survived by the use of clever tactics which were perfected by Moi when he was in office. These include the manipulation of the mass media and maximum use of ethnic loyalty which Kibaki will now learn to make use of from the master tactician which Moi happens to be. It was therefore not for nothing that a lot of Opposition politicians cried foul when Moi made his announcement to back Kibaki.
During the referendum, areas that were dominated by either banana or orange returned ridiculous 100 per cent support for whatever stand they took, which means ballot boxes somehow were filled up by returning officers. Unless some very drastic steps are taken in the proper organization of the electoral process during the December polling, a similar tactic is bound to be repeated and when that happens Moi will be handy to advice Kibaki on what steps to take to remain in power.
As Musalia Mudavadi warned at Kasarani, this time there are 14 million registered voters and in a situation like that the Opposition has to work extra hard to make sure something unbecoming does not take place in the remote areas. With Moi sitting next to Kibaki during these elections it would be foolhardy to write off the former President’s influence in having an effect on the results.
As a consummate politician of the old school party discipline which helped him stay in power for 24 years, Moi is bound to be among the first to smell a rat in the manner in which both ODMs’ presidential nominations were organized. The most conspicuous abnormality of the two parties was the fact that they had no manifestos to talk about. Instead they had individual leaders’ policies which they have marketed on personal basis. Each party has leaders who claim to be united yet they openly differ ideologically. These abnormalities will most likely be trumpeted by Moi when he starts campaigning for Kibaki.
Moi’s suspicion was corroborated by the ODM-K's presidential nominations on August 31st and that of ODM on September 1st when the two parties conducted nominations without elected national officials holding any office. Whereas ODM-K could claim its delegates were made up of party elected branch officials, ODM delegates were merely handpicked and those suspected of not agrees with the party owner were simply locked out of the entire exercise. Yet the media gave the two incidents maximum publicity with minimum criticism.
When Moi hits the road to start real active campaigning for Mwai Kibaki, he is likely to point these anomalies out in a language the people will understand . He will therefore easily prove that the two parties are indeed personal properties of the candidates who won the nominations. The highly publicized presidential nomination exercises were no more than circuses which will give Moi a lot of ammunition to tear them into pieces. During the so called secret balloting at Kasarani the leaders kept talking about the high standard of democratic transparency in the two parties which was mysteriously achieved without national elections in both parties and in the case of ODM without even a constitutionally accepted list of members or delegates.
The two exercises must have had an arm and a leg as their price tags yet no one knows who actually footed the bills though it is not heard to imagine. The more spectacular the show was, the more expensive it must have become and Moi will have a field day in describing how a handful of sycophants were transported to Nairobi to endorse predetermined leaders in the name of nomination through secret ballot. This is a road Moi has traveled for more than two decades and will be quick to identify those who try to emulate him .
To a keen observer of the events of the two ODM presidential nominations, serious attempts were made to bring about the 2005 referendum euphoria and change it into a mob force against Mwai Kibaki. The only problem is the fact that the two groups are this time divided into bitter enemies that can only benefit Kibaki’s side. Besides, this time there are no powerful church groups which helped to swell the numbers of the referendum Orange group which, incidentally, was made even more powerful by Moi’s backing .
Being the shrewd politician he is, Moi is likely to use his Luhya friends to magnify the “loss” of the community at the ODM nomination and challenge the Raila’s offer of the number two position to Musalia Mudavadi. Like it has been suggested before, Moi will urge his Luhya loyalists to reject the offer which the Luhyas already have in Moody Awori. Right from the beginning Mudavadi did not seem very eager to oppose Raila and he actually participated in the nomination in the most lackadaisical manner – a tactic that ended up making Raila reap maximum benefit; but which may cause Mudavadi a very heavy damage back home in Western Province.
As the architect of the mlolongo voting system and an excellent manipulator of both the Electoral Commission and the Provincial Administration during elections, Moi will be an extremely useful advisor to Mwai Kibaki this time. Executive powers will most certainly be used by Kibaki to create huddles for both Raila and Kalonzo when the final race for the Presidency reaches its final stages. Samuel Kivuitu’s term of office as the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, for example, comes to an end in December, just before Kenyans go to the polls and the role Moi will play in advising Kibaki on how to fill the post will be sure to pose a great danger to free and fair elections.
So far Raila has survived by the use of clever tactics which were perfected by Moi when he was in office. These include the manipulation of the mass media and maximum use of ethnic loyalty which Kibaki will now learn to make use of from the master tactician which Moi happens to be. It was therefore not for nothing that a lot of Opposition politicians cried foul when Moi made his announcement to back Kibaki.
During the referendum, areas that were dominated by either banana or orange returned ridiculous 100 per cent support for whatever stand they took, which means ballot boxes somehow were filled up by returning officers. Unless some very drastic steps are taken in the proper organization of the electoral process during the December polling, a similar tactic is bound to be repeated and when that happens Moi will be handy to advice Kibaki on what steps to take to remain in power.
As Musalia Mudavadi warned at Kasarani, this time there are 14 million registered voters and in a situation like that the Opposition has to work extra hard to make sure something unbecoming does not take place in the remote areas. With Moi sitting next to Kibaki during these elections it would be foolhardy to write off the former President’s influence in having an effect on the results.
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