In the Raila-Kalonzo fight for seniority only Mwai Kibaki is the winner. Just about five months ago both Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka were calling President Kibaki all sorts of names and asking the voters to reject him for being too old, incompetent and chauvinistic. Today the former ODM partners accept Kibaki as the undisputed President of the Republic and therefore the number one leader in Kenya. All that the two are fighting for now is the number two position after Mwai Kibaki.
The paradoxical mystery is that the two fighting politicians seem to have totally forgotten that to win the bitter presidential race between all the three them, Kibaki used clever and unorthodox manipulation of the Electoral Commission, the Judiciary, the police force and Mungiki. And now he seems to be using his Vice President and Prime Minister to remain in power without anyone questioning his legitimacy.
Yes, a lot of water has flown under the bridge since last year’s elections. Before the country arrived at the current political situation, blood of the innocent was poured, homes of the guiltless were destroyed, and more than half a million blameless people are still spending nights in the bitter cold of the rainy season. Besides that, a shocked international community had to intervene to frame up an acceptable peace accord which has made Kenyans lay down their arms without really arriving at any peaceful solution to the problems created by the flawed presidential election. Was all this spontaneous or did Kibaki plan the whole scenario that ended up in him getting accepted as the country’s undisputed leader for the rest of his term?
To begin with, he must have twisted Samuel Kivuitu’s arm to announce the doubtful presidential results when the country was not sure who had actually won. He must have used the Judiciary to swear him in at the speed of lightening. He must have also known that that would have led to a countrywide bloodshed, as indeed it did, so he used the police to contain the situation; and when matters got really out of hand, the Mungiki stepped it. To date there are no Mungiki killers who have appeared in court as a result of the post election conflicts, yet police cells are full of people who are suspected of planning and executing the anti Kikuyu ethnic cleansing that took place in the Rift Valley during that sad part of Kenya’s history.
How much influence did Kibaki have in the drafting of the National Accord and Reconciliation Bill, 2008? If he had any influence then he must have been responsible for Section 3(1) which describes the appointment of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers in such a manner as to make them Government rather than national figures. The Section says there shall be a Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya and two Deputy Prime Ministers who shall be appointed by the President. On the other hand Section 15(1) of the Constitution of Kenya says there shall be a Vice President of Kenya, who shall be appointed by the President. The Government of Kenya is not the same thing as the Republic of Kenya. Looking at these two makes the position of the Prime Minister appear to be a little bit inferior to that of the Vice President.
Yet it is the Accord that gives the Prime Ministers powers that the Vice President can only dream of. Section 4(2) of the Accord, for example, gives the Prime Minister powers to nominate Ministers and Assistant Ministers from political parties that are partners in the coalition Government. The Accord gives Raila more powers than Kalonzo by suggesting in Section 4(3) that the composition of the coalition Government shall at all times reflect the relative parliamentary strength of the respective parties and shall at all times take into account the principle of portfolio balance. Looking at the number of Ministries controlled by ODM, which is controlled by Raila Odinga , makes the Prime Minister an extremely powerful person who can bring the whole Government to an end if he so wishes.
The other argument in favour of the Prime Minister is the fact that the accord was signed between two parties- the ODM and PNU. When Kibaki signed the accord he was doing so on behalf of Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-K as much as Raila signed it on behalf of Charity Ngilu’s Narc. The equal partnership the Accord talks about is between Raila and Kibaki. So looking at the Accord alone without the Constitution, Raila is the obvious number two to Kibaki.
An issue that has still got cobwebs, which need to be cleared, is whether or not the Accord is superior to the Constitution or vice versa because the manner in which the Constitution was changed to include the Prime Minister obviously lists the new position after that of the Vice President making Kalonzo Musyoka constitutionally the number two man in the political scene of Kenya. Section 11 of the Constitution, which talks of the exercise of President’s functions during absence or illness, also gives the Vice President an upper hand.
On the other hand the accord, which has Raila’s signature and not Kalonzo’s, talks of “real power sharing” as partners in coalition Government and also clearly says the agreement is to create an environment conducive to such partnership and to build mutual trust and confidence.
As the Vice President fights the Prime Minister to get recognized as the country’s second most powerful political leader, Kenya is once again torn between two groups made up of either Raila’s supporters or his enemies. Those supporting him use the National Accord and Reconciliation Bill, 2008, which, by and large, recognizes him as Kibaki’s equal partner in the formation of a coalition Government. Those opposing him have a tendency to look at the amended Constitution of Kenya, which lists the position of the Prime Minister after those of the President and the Vice President.
Raila’s friends are hoping that he will be the man to take over from Kibaki after 2012 when the old man constitutionally steps down. These include the majority of the voters of Kenya for the simple reason that during the disturbances and negotiations for peace, Raila came out as the real statesman who was willing to turn the other chick, when others won’t, for the sake of the country’s peace and stability. Secondly, it also comes out clearly that Raila was not putting all his eggs in the basket of the country’s presidency. He was willing to become the country’s Prime Minister and possibly prepare for a much simpler battle to win in 2012. Much simpler because almost the whole country, including the ordinary voters in the Central Province this time, seems to be behind him. Thirdly, Raila is obviously ahead of everyone else’s strategy because, as the Prime Minister, he has a greater opportunity of changing Kenya into a fully fledged parliamentary system which will give him unchallenged political power for unlimited time. All depends on Parliament changing the Constitution and getting rid of the present set up which still gives the President a lot of powers.
This, however, cannot be done with a large group of rebellious MPs still angry for not getting any position in the Kibaki- Raila cabinet and still threatening to form a Grand Opposition. The Grand Opposition planned by, among others, Ababu Namwamba and Chris Okemo, is therefore more dangerous to Raila than Kalonzo Musyoka, who cannot harm the Prime Minister politically in any way, shape or form, even if the VP is given the constitutional number two position he claims to have.
The war between Kalonzo and Raila may look petty, but it makes Kibaki comfortably happy as the unchallenged President till his term comes to an end. And, unfortunately, it puts the country into another uncalled for cold war.
May be the most important food for thoughts for all the fighting leaders, plus President Mwai Kibaki, comes from the preamble of the Accord which says the agreement was not about creating positions that reward individuals. It seeks to enable Kenya’s political leaders to look beyond partisan considerations with a view to promoting the greater interests of the nation as a whole.
The Accord says it “provides the means to implement a coherent and far reaching reform agenda, to address the fundamental root causes of recurrent conflict, and to create a better, more secure prosperous Kenya for all.” Is it so difficult for Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga to put those noble words into practice?
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
Dealing With Mungiki the Raila Way
Soon after he was sworn in as the country’s Prime Minister, Raila Odinga extended a hand of friendship to the dreaded Mungiki by inviting them to a peace talk and describing them as “ndugu zetu” – our brothers and sisters! To many who have yet to understand Raila’s mastery of political tactics, his friendly attitude towards the feared terror gang was mystifying because the terrorists have killed more Luos than any other group of Kenyans since the mess of the presidential elections of last year.
Before Raila joined the Government the security forces believed in eliminating Mungiki through guns and bullets or the use of force which has been proved wrong by history time after time. If the forceful or the most powerful had their way Americans would not have lost the Korean War, neither would they have ended up the losers in Vietnam or the Bay of Pigs.
Today it is quite obvious that the use of force is not providing an answer in Iraq. Yet the approach by Raila is not new at all. It is centuries old. It was the great Chinese thinker, Sun Tzu, who said, more than two thousand years ago, that the supreme act of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. That is what Raila is trying to do without using a single bullet .So far the Mungiki’s urban guerrilla tactics have been very successful because the Government has chosen to confront them physically and make the gangsters not only go underground but use the most heinous methods to establish their presence and invincibility .No matter what the State does to reassure the people about their safety, the Mungiki seem to be able to strike their targets at any place and time they want without the knowledge of the police.
Whatever the authorities say about the gangster organization, obeying or disobeying their orders in certain areas where they have established a foothold is a matter of life and death. So when they want all the shops closed in Muranga, the shops are indeed closed. When they want to extract some money from matatu owners, money does indeed exchange hands. When John Michuki was in charge of the security and ordered the people to disobey the Mungiki, they chose to disobey him instead. Whether we like it or not the Mungiki are a power to reckon with. This is so particularly in the Central Province and in some urban areas where the majority of the inhabitants come from around Mount Kenya. They all shake in their boots when they hear the word Mungiki.
No matter what we say about the Mungiki, they seem to enforce their own moral laws among the Kikuyu people very much the same way the Mau Mau did more than half a century ago. Their commanders on the ground are mysterious and so are their methods of spreading, inexplicable. But their discipline is just as visible as the end results of their bloody deeds are shockingly conspicuous. The method used by Raila to penetrate them could probably demystify the organization’s ability to mobilize so many people and make them blindly follow orders that compel them to engage in dangerous activities without any fear of death.
As a militia, Mungiki was obviously used in Nakuru and Naivasha to stop the advancing Kalenjins from slaughtering Kikuyus soon after the disastrous presidential elections results were announced last year. Whoever hired the Mungiki at that time must have been both rich and powerful. This means some very important personalities from the Mount Kenya areas, who are around Mwai Kibaki’s inner circles, know the leadership of the Mungiki very well. The unconfirmed story is that the gangsters have not been paid for the job they did in Nakuru and Naivasha, hence the extended revolt.
If Raila was to hold talks with the Mungiki, the cat would be out of the bag very soon. And if it was also true that the Mungiki were hired to perpetuate the Kikuyu domination after the 2007 general election, why would whoever hired them refuse to pay them now? Could it be that whoever hired them to terrorize Naivasha and Nakuru in 2007 wants the gangsters to spread the same terror now that the Kikuyu domination seems to be threatened by the formation of a coalition Government?
There are no easy answers to these questions but one thing is sure to happen – Raila’s efforts to build bridges with the Mungiki will be frustrated by some people very powerful within the new coalition, which leads me to pose the next most obvious questions: How united are these people in the coalition Government ? Are there some them who are out to wreck it from within? Time alone will tell.
Before Raila took the Prime Minister’s oath, the security authorities had requested the media not to give the Mungiki widespread publicity. Whereas it is true that all terrorists desperately depend on publicity, the adage “when it bleeds, it leads” would lose its meaning in Kenyan journalism if journalists were to sweep the Mungiki story under the carpet. The fact that Raila is now in the same journalistic radarscope as the Mungiki means the story is likely to dominate front pages for a long time to come.
The days when the Government could police the media and force them into an unholy secrecy and total blackout of the most vital events in the country, are long gone. So the Mungiki story will still be with us despite attempts to muzzle the media. No one in the media today will allow anyone, however powerful, to veto any story, particularly the juicy one about Raila and the Mungiki. Obviously there will be many in the Government who will be up in arms against Raila’s suggestion to talk to the Mungiki. Any attempt to keep Raila and the Mungiki apart, however, arouses intense suspicion that someone would like to hide the truth, particularly when the terror gang leadership is willing to talk about their Naivasha and Nakuru assignments.
The desired objectives of the Mungiki differ from those of the security forces. The former want to be paid for the duty they performed and the later want to silence them in order to protect someone powerful who is about to be exposed by both the terror gang and Raila. The security forces’ heavy-handedness around the Pentagon House when the Mungiki were about to present a memorandum to the Prime Minister is a major indicator of the degree to which the Gema henchmen are prepared to use force to silence the aggrieved Mungiki leaders and keep the public in total darkness about the bloodbath of Naivasha and Nakuru.
On paper, the Prime Minister has powers to supervise the Minister for Security and Provincial Administration, George Saitoti and the Police Commissioner and order both of them to leave the Mungiki members alone when they seek to have an audience with him. On the other hand, Saitoti would like to show the Gema community publicly that he can stubbornly disobey and defy the Prime Minister and get away with it. What Saitoti, as the Minister in charge of security, is actually doing is to test the waters to find out whether Raila has really got the backing of the President and the powers to order him around.
If Raila wants to talk with the Mungiki leadership there is actually nothing to stop him. Unlike Saitoti, who can be fired by Mwai Kibaki at any time, Raila can, in fact, do as he pleases and get away with it. Short of a vote of no confidence by Parliament, no one can fire him. And the Parliament does not dare take such a risky step which is likely to dissolve the coalition Government and probably send everyone back to the people with the most disastrous result for Saitoti, rather than for Raila. If the people of Kenya are given a chance to elect members of Parliament all over again they would probably get rid of all the chauvinistic arrogance exhibited by the Gema leadership of the old guards in the Central Province, which Saitoti represents, though his constituency is in the Rift Valley.
The idea from the Prime Minister to have a dialogue with the Mungiki will easily be accepted by most people in Kenya because the concept of dialogue has now also been accepted by most wananchi as it seems to work. Raila is only extending the dialogue offer to the Mungiki because the people believe in it even if the one with Mungiki is bound to take place amid appalling atrocities by their members. The terrorists have succeeded in getting their propaganda into the mass media. Secret talks with the Prime Minister are guaranteed to silence them and bring about lasting peace to our beloved country.
Before Raila joined the Government the security forces believed in eliminating Mungiki through guns and bullets or the use of force which has been proved wrong by history time after time. If the forceful or the most powerful had their way Americans would not have lost the Korean War, neither would they have ended up the losers in Vietnam or the Bay of Pigs.
Today it is quite obvious that the use of force is not providing an answer in Iraq. Yet the approach by Raila is not new at all. It is centuries old. It was the great Chinese thinker, Sun Tzu, who said, more than two thousand years ago, that the supreme act of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. That is what Raila is trying to do without using a single bullet .So far the Mungiki’s urban guerrilla tactics have been very successful because the Government has chosen to confront them physically and make the gangsters not only go underground but use the most heinous methods to establish their presence and invincibility .No matter what the State does to reassure the people about their safety, the Mungiki seem to be able to strike their targets at any place and time they want without the knowledge of the police.
Whatever the authorities say about the gangster organization, obeying or disobeying their orders in certain areas where they have established a foothold is a matter of life and death. So when they want all the shops closed in Muranga, the shops are indeed closed. When they want to extract some money from matatu owners, money does indeed exchange hands. When John Michuki was in charge of the security and ordered the people to disobey the Mungiki, they chose to disobey him instead. Whether we like it or not the Mungiki are a power to reckon with. This is so particularly in the Central Province and in some urban areas where the majority of the inhabitants come from around Mount Kenya. They all shake in their boots when they hear the word Mungiki.
No matter what we say about the Mungiki, they seem to enforce their own moral laws among the Kikuyu people very much the same way the Mau Mau did more than half a century ago. Their commanders on the ground are mysterious and so are their methods of spreading, inexplicable. But their discipline is just as visible as the end results of their bloody deeds are shockingly conspicuous. The method used by Raila to penetrate them could probably demystify the organization’s ability to mobilize so many people and make them blindly follow orders that compel them to engage in dangerous activities without any fear of death.
As a militia, Mungiki was obviously used in Nakuru and Naivasha to stop the advancing Kalenjins from slaughtering Kikuyus soon after the disastrous presidential elections results were announced last year. Whoever hired the Mungiki at that time must have been both rich and powerful. This means some very important personalities from the Mount Kenya areas, who are around Mwai Kibaki’s inner circles, know the leadership of the Mungiki very well. The unconfirmed story is that the gangsters have not been paid for the job they did in Nakuru and Naivasha, hence the extended revolt.
If Raila was to hold talks with the Mungiki, the cat would be out of the bag very soon. And if it was also true that the Mungiki were hired to perpetuate the Kikuyu domination after the 2007 general election, why would whoever hired them refuse to pay them now? Could it be that whoever hired them to terrorize Naivasha and Nakuru in 2007 wants the gangsters to spread the same terror now that the Kikuyu domination seems to be threatened by the formation of a coalition Government?
There are no easy answers to these questions but one thing is sure to happen – Raila’s efforts to build bridges with the Mungiki will be frustrated by some people very powerful within the new coalition, which leads me to pose the next most obvious questions: How united are these people in the coalition Government ? Are there some them who are out to wreck it from within? Time alone will tell.
Before Raila took the Prime Minister’s oath, the security authorities had requested the media not to give the Mungiki widespread publicity. Whereas it is true that all terrorists desperately depend on publicity, the adage “when it bleeds, it leads” would lose its meaning in Kenyan journalism if journalists were to sweep the Mungiki story under the carpet. The fact that Raila is now in the same journalistic radarscope as the Mungiki means the story is likely to dominate front pages for a long time to come.
The days when the Government could police the media and force them into an unholy secrecy and total blackout of the most vital events in the country, are long gone. So the Mungiki story will still be with us despite attempts to muzzle the media. No one in the media today will allow anyone, however powerful, to veto any story, particularly the juicy one about Raila and the Mungiki. Obviously there will be many in the Government who will be up in arms against Raila’s suggestion to talk to the Mungiki. Any attempt to keep Raila and the Mungiki apart, however, arouses intense suspicion that someone would like to hide the truth, particularly when the terror gang leadership is willing to talk about their Naivasha and Nakuru assignments.
The desired objectives of the Mungiki differ from those of the security forces. The former want to be paid for the duty they performed and the later want to silence them in order to protect someone powerful who is about to be exposed by both the terror gang and Raila. The security forces’ heavy-handedness around the Pentagon House when the Mungiki were about to present a memorandum to the Prime Minister is a major indicator of the degree to which the Gema henchmen are prepared to use force to silence the aggrieved Mungiki leaders and keep the public in total darkness about the bloodbath of Naivasha and Nakuru.
On paper, the Prime Minister has powers to supervise the Minister for Security and Provincial Administration, George Saitoti and the Police Commissioner and order both of them to leave the Mungiki members alone when they seek to have an audience with him. On the other hand, Saitoti would like to show the Gema community publicly that he can stubbornly disobey and defy the Prime Minister and get away with it. What Saitoti, as the Minister in charge of security, is actually doing is to test the waters to find out whether Raila has really got the backing of the President and the powers to order him around.
If Raila wants to talk with the Mungiki leadership there is actually nothing to stop him. Unlike Saitoti, who can be fired by Mwai Kibaki at any time, Raila can, in fact, do as he pleases and get away with it. Short of a vote of no confidence by Parliament, no one can fire him. And the Parliament does not dare take such a risky step which is likely to dissolve the coalition Government and probably send everyone back to the people with the most disastrous result for Saitoti, rather than for Raila. If the people of Kenya are given a chance to elect members of Parliament all over again they would probably get rid of all the chauvinistic arrogance exhibited by the Gema leadership of the old guards in the Central Province, which Saitoti represents, though his constituency is in the Rift Valley.
The idea from the Prime Minister to have a dialogue with the Mungiki will easily be accepted by most people in Kenya because the concept of dialogue has now also been accepted by most wananchi as it seems to work. Raila is only extending the dialogue offer to the Mungiki because the people believe in it even if the one with Mungiki is bound to take place amid appalling atrocities by their members. The terrorists have succeeded in getting their propaganda into the mass media. Secret talks with the Prime Minister are guaranteed to silence them and bring about lasting peace to our beloved country.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tribal Structure of Kibaki's Cabinet
Kenyans become real tribalists when they look at the Cabinet and the choice of Ministers in it. Tribes claim the ownerships of whole ministries when their son or daughter heads it. That is why Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga had a complex task of creating a Cabinet that considered every region. The exercise went beyond party differences despite the provisions of Section 17 (3) of the Constitution which says the Cabinet shall be collectively responsible to the National Assembly for all the things done by or under the authority of the President or the Vice-President or any other Minister in the execution of his office. That collective responsibility is a smoke screen Kenyans look at as they consider individual Ministers in terms of the tribes they come from.
Yet in an effort to form an all inclusive government of the people, Mwai Kibaki has succeeded in arm-twisting taxpayers of Kenya who will have to pay through their noses to maintain the new Cabinet. To have people from all corners of the country join the powerful Kikuyu elite in ruling Kenya, will cost an arm and a leg and the victims are ordinary Kenyans. Yet, this time, it will be almost impossible for the traditional Kibaki critics from the Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces to continue accusing Kikuyus of political hegemony when a huge number of them have agreed to serve in the President’s Government.
The Cabinet named by Kibaki has no less than five powerful Luos in it. Both the Kalenjins[1] and Luhya[2] political leaderships are heavily represented in the new set up. Though the Gema community will continue to hold a lot of powers in the Government including the ministries of Finance, Energy, Justice and Constitutional Affairs, a major transformation has taken place by surrendering Medical Services, Lands, Immigration, Registering of Persons and Public Services to Luo leaders from ODM.[3]
Kalenjins from the same party will now control Agriculture, Industrialization, Roads, Higher Education, Science and Technology. Apart from the Attorney General’s Office, Luhyas from both PNU and ODM will control Forestry and Wildlife, Housing, Fisheries Development, Regional Development, Foreign Affairs and Local Government. With Kikuyus, Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas backing the new Kibaki Administration, its survival may last longer than many anticipated. To begin with all the top politicians from these communities have prominent positions in the Government and all of them would obviously like to keep their jobs for as long as possible.
Besides that the Kamba people back Kibaki’s Government for simply appointing Kalonzo Musyoka the Vice President. The small group in the tribe that opposes Musyoka normally supports Charity Ngilu who is also a Minister in Kibaki’s Government. So the Kamba people as a whole support the new Kibaki regime.
All the MPs who missed Kibaki’s boat in the formation of the new Cabinet are likely to form a formidable opposition led by politicians like Gitobu Imanyara and Ababu Namwamba. Because Kibaki made changes in his Government on the basis of the strength of various ethnic groups, Kenya’s political development will have to embark on an era of another serious tribal campaign for his succession. The appointment of Uhuru Kenyatta as a Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Trade clearly shows the President would like to groom Uhuru to be the next tenant at State House.
The new position provides Kenyatta with both local and international platforms to popularize himself for the next five years before he confronts Raila and Kalonzo in the next presidential race in 2012. The winner of that tough contest will depend on how successfully political parties will be reorganized to introduce democracy in them. It seems like the voters of that time will have little respect for any political party that is a personal property of an individual politician, tribal nationalism notwithstanding.
In the new power structure the party with ministries closer to the people and therefore with the greatest opportunity to have an upper hand in 2012 is ODM. For example as Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will have the opportunity to travel across the country on Government expenses as the Minister for Local Government popularizing ODM to the converted controlling the majority of local governments in the country. As the most powerful politician in the Rift Valley, William Ruto is likely to strengthen his political status through his Ministry of Agriculture which all the farmers now desperately need to return the country to the pre-election resemblance of prosperity.
Following the post election conflicts which made hundreds of thousands homeless the Ministry of Land will play a major role in bringing about real peace in the country through resettling the IDPs in either the old homes or new ones. That responsibility will be handled by the ODM under James Orengo who will most probably waste little time in making both his party and leader Raila Odinga popular. The newly settled people will most likely be very loyal to whoever gives them back their lost land.
Looking at the Cabinet from an ethnic point of view reveals two disgruntled groups that feel their tribes have not had a fair deal in the establishment of the grand coalition. One of these groups is, paradoxically, made up of young Kikuyus from Kiambu and Muranga. As soon as the new Cabinet was announced, young, newly elected MPs from the area publicly claimed Kibaki had forgotten them. They include, Tito Nguyai, the new MP for Kikuyu constituency, Jamleck Kamau, MP for Kagumo, Maina Kamau, MP for Kandara, Elias Mbau, MP for Muranga, Peter Mwathi, MP for Limuru and Ngoyo Kioni, the MP for Ndaragwa.
What kind of impact their complaints will have on Prime Minister Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki is not clear yet, but it is strange that their complaints come at a time when Mungiki terror gangsters from Muranga and Kiambu have caused mayhem and death of scores of people in the city and constituencies represented by the complaining MPs. How much influence the young MPs from Central Province have on the Mungiki gangsters or whether the two are connected at all is not easy to tell.
The fact that Mungiki is made up of young people who recently elected the complaining MPs adds weight to the suspicion that the two are connected and that the real reason the Mungiki are protesting is the fact that their MPs are not in the Cabinet. Another reason could be the perception that Kibaki has surrendered too much power to non Kikuyus making the Gema community much weaker in the Government.
The second group that is opposing the new Cabinet for ethnic reasons is the Kipsigis group of MPs from the Rift Valley. Comprising of the MP for Kuresoi, Zakayo Cheruiyot, the MP for Konoin, Dr. Kipyegon Kones, the MP for Buret, Franklin Bett, the MP for Belgut, Charles Keter and the MP for Kipkelion, Makarer Langat the group has publicly condemned the Kibaki/Raila Cabinet for not including more Kipsigis people in it. So far only Kipkaliya Kones, who is a prominent Kipsigis, sits in the new Cabinet as the Minister for Roads. The other is Lorna Loboso who is only an assistant minister.
The anger of the Kipsigis people will make it extremely difficult to resettle the displaced people on their former farms in the Rift Valley. As a matter of fact they have threatened to pull out of ODM, the party they supported in the last general and presidential elections. Almost all the Kalenjins in the new cabinet, including the powerful Minister for Agriculture William Ruto, are Nandis. Though the Nandis and Kipsigis are both Kalenjins, they can be divided on political matters particularly in the distribution of influential positions in the Government.
The political reality in Kenya is that to belong to the Cabinet one has to have a silent sponsorship of his or her tribe. The positions are exclusively reserved for people who command respect in their own tribes. How they will collectively exercise governmental authority under Raila and Kibaki remains to be seen.
[1] The Kalenjins in the Cabinet include William Ruto (Agriculture), Henry Kosgey (Industrialization) Kipkaliya Kones (Roads) Sally Kosgei (Higher Education Science and Technology). With the exception of Kones all the others are Kalenjin Nandis. He is a Kipsigis.
[2] The Luhyas from PNU are Moses Wetangula ( Foreign Affairs) Soita Shitanda ( Housing) and Nosh Wekesa ( Forestry and Wild Life ) and from PNU there are Deputy Prime Minister Moses Mudavadi ( Local Government), Wycliffe Oparanya ( National Development), Fred Gumo ( Regional Development) and Paul Otuoma ( Fisheries Development)
[3] Apart from Raila himself other Luos in the Cabinet include Anyang Nyongo who is the new Minister for Medical Services, James Orengo (Lands), Dalmas Otieno (Public Service) and Otieno Kajwang (Immigration and Registration of Persona). Raila’s own brother, Dr. Oburu Odinga is the Assistant Minister at the Treasury.
Yet in an effort to form an all inclusive government of the people, Mwai Kibaki has succeeded in arm-twisting taxpayers of Kenya who will have to pay through their noses to maintain the new Cabinet. To have people from all corners of the country join the powerful Kikuyu elite in ruling Kenya, will cost an arm and a leg and the victims are ordinary Kenyans. Yet, this time, it will be almost impossible for the traditional Kibaki critics from the Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces to continue accusing Kikuyus of political hegemony when a huge number of them have agreed to serve in the President’s Government.
The Cabinet named by Kibaki has no less than five powerful Luos in it. Both the Kalenjins[1] and Luhya[2] political leaderships are heavily represented in the new set up. Though the Gema community will continue to hold a lot of powers in the Government including the ministries of Finance, Energy, Justice and Constitutional Affairs, a major transformation has taken place by surrendering Medical Services, Lands, Immigration, Registering of Persons and Public Services to Luo leaders from ODM.[3]
Kalenjins from the same party will now control Agriculture, Industrialization, Roads, Higher Education, Science and Technology. Apart from the Attorney General’s Office, Luhyas from both PNU and ODM will control Forestry and Wildlife, Housing, Fisheries Development, Regional Development, Foreign Affairs and Local Government. With Kikuyus, Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas backing the new Kibaki Administration, its survival may last longer than many anticipated. To begin with all the top politicians from these communities have prominent positions in the Government and all of them would obviously like to keep their jobs for as long as possible.
Besides that the Kamba people back Kibaki’s Government for simply appointing Kalonzo Musyoka the Vice President. The small group in the tribe that opposes Musyoka normally supports Charity Ngilu who is also a Minister in Kibaki’s Government. So the Kamba people as a whole support the new Kibaki regime.
All the MPs who missed Kibaki’s boat in the formation of the new Cabinet are likely to form a formidable opposition led by politicians like Gitobu Imanyara and Ababu Namwamba. Because Kibaki made changes in his Government on the basis of the strength of various ethnic groups, Kenya’s political development will have to embark on an era of another serious tribal campaign for his succession. The appointment of Uhuru Kenyatta as a Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister for Trade clearly shows the President would like to groom Uhuru to be the next tenant at State House.
The new position provides Kenyatta with both local and international platforms to popularize himself for the next five years before he confronts Raila and Kalonzo in the next presidential race in 2012. The winner of that tough contest will depend on how successfully political parties will be reorganized to introduce democracy in them. It seems like the voters of that time will have little respect for any political party that is a personal property of an individual politician, tribal nationalism notwithstanding.
In the new power structure the party with ministries closer to the people and therefore with the greatest opportunity to have an upper hand in 2012 is ODM. For example as Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will have the opportunity to travel across the country on Government expenses as the Minister for Local Government popularizing ODM to the converted controlling the majority of local governments in the country. As the most powerful politician in the Rift Valley, William Ruto is likely to strengthen his political status through his Ministry of Agriculture which all the farmers now desperately need to return the country to the pre-election resemblance of prosperity.
Following the post election conflicts which made hundreds of thousands homeless the Ministry of Land will play a major role in bringing about real peace in the country through resettling the IDPs in either the old homes or new ones. That responsibility will be handled by the ODM under James Orengo who will most probably waste little time in making both his party and leader Raila Odinga popular. The newly settled people will most likely be very loyal to whoever gives them back their lost land.
Looking at the Cabinet from an ethnic point of view reveals two disgruntled groups that feel their tribes have not had a fair deal in the establishment of the grand coalition. One of these groups is, paradoxically, made up of young Kikuyus from Kiambu and Muranga. As soon as the new Cabinet was announced, young, newly elected MPs from the area publicly claimed Kibaki had forgotten them. They include, Tito Nguyai, the new MP for Kikuyu constituency, Jamleck Kamau, MP for Kagumo, Maina Kamau, MP for Kandara, Elias Mbau, MP for Muranga, Peter Mwathi, MP for Limuru and Ngoyo Kioni, the MP for Ndaragwa.
What kind of impact their complaints will have on Prime Minister Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki is not clear yet, but it is strange that their complaints come at a time when Mungiki terror gangsters from Muranga and Kiambu have caused mayhem and death of scores of people in the city and constituencies represented by the complaining MPs. How much influence the young MPs from Central Province have on the Mungiki gangsters or whether the two are connected at all is not easy to tell.
The fact that Mungiki is made up of young people who recently elected the complaining MPs adds weight to the suspicion that the two are connected and that the real reason the Mungiki are protesting is the fact that their MPs are not in the Cabinet. Another reason could be the perception that Kibaki has surrendered too much power to non Kikuyus making the Gema community much weaker in the Government.
The second group that is opposing the new Cabinet for ethnic reasons is the Kipsigis group of MPs from the Rift Valley. Comprising of the MP for Kuresoi, Zakayo Cheruiyot, the MP for Konoin, Dr. Kipyegon Kones, the MP for Buret, Franklin Bett, the MP for Belgut, Charles Keter and the MP for Kipkelion, Makarer Langat the group has publicly condemned the Kibaki/Raila Cabinet for not including more Kipsigis people in it. So far only Kipkaliya Kones, who is a prominent Kipsigis, sits in the new Cabinet as the Minister for Roads. The other is Lorna Loboso who is only an assistant minister.
The anger of the Kipsigis people will make it extremely difficult to resettle the displaced people on their former farms in the Rift Valley. As a matter of fact they have threatened to pull out of ODM, the party they supported in the last general and presidential elections. Almost all the Kalenjins in the new cabinet, including the powerful Minister for Agriculture William Ruto, are Nandis. Though the Nandis and Kipsigis are both Kalenjins, they can be divided on political matters particularly in the distribution of influential positions in the Government.
The political reality in Kenya is that to belong to the Cabinet one has to have a silent sponsorship of his or her tribe. The positions are exclusively reserved for people who command respect in their own tribes. How they will collectively exercise governmental authority under Raila and Kibaki remains to be seen.
[1] The Kalenjins in the Cabinet include William Ruto (Agriculture), Henry Kosgey (Industrialization) Kipkaliya Kones (Roads) Sally Kosgei (Higher Education Science and Technology). With the exception of Kones all the others are Kalenjin Nandis. He is a Kipsigis.
[2] The Luhyas from PNU are Moses Wetangula ( Foreign Affairs) Soita Shitanda ( Housing) and Nosh Wekesa ( Forestry and Wild Life ) and from PNU there are Deputy Prime Minister Moses Mudavadi ( Local Government), Wycliffe Oparanya ( National Development), Fred Gumo ( Regional Development) and Paul Otuoma ( Fisheries Development)
[3] Apart from Raila himself other Luos in the Cabinet include Anyang Nyongo who is the new Minister for Medical Services, James Orengo (Lands), Dalmas Otieno (Public Service) and Otieno Kajwang (Immigration and Registration of Persona). Raila’s own brother, Dr. Oburu Odinga is the Assistant Minister at the Treasury.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Kibaki in a Tight Corner
Mwai Kibaki is in a tight political corner. He rejects Raila Odinga at his own peril. The country expects the two to unite and avoid another bloodbath. Yet he accepts to form a coalition government with the ODM leader at the risk of being outmaneuvered and outshined by the master of political intrigue in Kenya. Whenever the two decide to form a coalition government, however, they will provide a great weight lift off the people who are on the verge of going back to the tragedy of last year’s disputed presidential election. The people are growing more and more impatient as they wait for a new Cabinet acceptable to the two leaders.
To save this nation the two will have to be guided by the Constitution which has, for more than four decades, continued to authenticate the various authorities that have symbolized the Government’s legitimacy and its acceptability to the people. In matters of governance the Constitution is so important that it had to be changed to accommodate Raila Odinga as a powerful Prime Minister.
That notwithstanding, Section 23 of the Constitution clearly says the executive authority of the Government of Kenya shall vest in the President and may be exercised by him either directly or through officers subordinate to him. One of those people subordinate to the President who will be enjoying and exercising executive authority will be the Prime Minister who under Section 4(1) a, b, and c of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, shall have the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, including those of Ministries.
Obviously there is a lot of jealousy within Mwai Kibaki’s PNU because in the final analysis Raila becomes the most powerful person in Kenya after the President. Yes, indeed the Constitution is also clear in Section 15 about the Vice President being the principal assistant of the President in the discharge of his functions. With the existence of a Prime Minister, however, the functions of the Vice President cannot include the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, technically making the Prime Minister extremely powerful in the entire Government.
There is a clique within PNU which is extremely uncomfortable with that state of affairs. The clique tried to distribute leaflets to Members of Parliament to make them reject the Constitutional amendment to create the office of the Prime Minister, but the whole exercise aborted when it was quite clear that the majority of the legislators did indeed back Raila Odinga as the most suitable person to hold that high office. The clique is obviously trying another method – that of diluting the significance of portfolios to be held by ODM ministers. The clique does not mind Kalonzo Musyoka holding the office of the Vice President.
Though the Vice President will continue to be the Leader of Government Business in Parliament, it is the Prime Minister who will always garner more political limelight due to his charismatic personality and actual powers given to him by the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008. His self confidence has always boosted his ego in whatever political camp he joins and whatever he does in the game. These characteristics of Raila Odinga make many in the PNU scared of him and therefore continue to plan for his downfall. Part of the strategy is to keep him as far away from President Kibaki as it is possible.
One of the reasons for the desperate campaign against Raila Odinga becoming a powerful Prime Minister is the fact that once he is in power the corrupt will never continue to swindle the Government through bogus contracts as theft from the Government will be more likely to be controlled if not eliminated altogether. In the midst of Raila’s political enemies are extremely powerful and rich people .Among the ministries they do not want to surrender to the ODM are geese that lay golden eggs.
When the ODM make a tough demand of setting very hard conditions to be fulfilled before they join Kibaki’s Government in a coalition, the happiest people are Raila’s enemies in PNU because they know the stiffer the conditions the less likely for Kibaki to accept them, hence keeping Raila out of Premier’s office for a long time. Accepting Kibaki’s offer as it stands may be a tactical calculation to get into the Government in order to clean it up from within.
But Raila’s problems are not in the PNU only. Some of them are to be found in the ODM itself. There are some very ambitious people in the ODM who would not only want to be ministers in the coalition Government but also high officials of the party itself. So far the party has not held any elections as such. Members of the so called Pentagon were hand picked by Raila himself and they know if they are not careful they could be shown the door. Despite the tough stand taken by the party, Raila could join hands with Kibaki any time he so wishes without anyone’s permission. This was exemplified by his spokesman’s announcement that he is still willing to negotiate with Mwai Kibaki despite his party’s official announcement rejecting such negotiations.
The greedy in ODM are also hoping to get top jobs within the Government including ambassadorial positions and powerful Permanent Secretaries’ posts. This they cannot legally achieve as Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says in subsection 2 that the powers to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Ambassador, High Commissioner or other principal representative of Kenya in another country, and to remove from office a person holding or acting in any such office, shall vest in the President.
Portfolio balance suggested by Section 4(3) of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, seems to concern itself only with political positions held by elected politicians appointed to ministerial positions. It also does not seem to include Permanent Secretaries as some ODM leaders would like us to believe. Subsection one of Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says the power to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Permanent Secretary, Secretary to the Cabinet or Director of Personnel shall vest in the President.
ODM may very well have a valid point when they claim that Francis Muthaura, as the current Secretary to the Cabinet, does not appear to be eager to see the coalition government taking over power in the country. Indeed that could be quite suicidal for him. But the Orange party can do nothing about Muthaura as only the President can fire him. If and when Raila becomes the Prime Minister, however, Muthaura’s powers will have to be reduced as he will have to work under the Prime Minister who presumably will also be the Minister for Cabinet Affairs.
One of the reasons the PNU is calling for a general election is to deny Raila Odinga the opportunity to take over the powerful position of the country’s Prime Minister. Many of the jealous people in the PNU claim that the unions between their party, Kanu and ODM-K plus a number of small parties could, after an election, constitute the majority in Parliament if they conduct a joint campaign. Be that as it may, going back to the people could be an extremely dangerous thing for Kibaki to do , as his team may very well be rejected by the people who see the lot them as a major obstacle in the formation of the Cabinet , which the whole country is now eagerly waiting for. An election may give the people the opportunity to reelect Raila Odinga as the leader of this country with an even bigger majority. Besides that, Kibaki may not take the risk of dissolving the current Parliament as he may not be allowed by the law to run for a third time.
To save this nation the two will have to be guided by the Constitution which has, for more than four decades, continued to authenticate the various authorities that have symbolized the Government’s legitimacy and its acceptability to the people. In matters of governance the Constitution is so important that it had to be changed to accommodate Raila Odinga as a powerful Prime Minister.
That notwithstanding, Section 23 of the Constitution clearly says the executive authority of the Government of Kenya shall vest in the President and may be exercised by him either directly or through officers subordinate to him. One of those people subordinate to the President who will be enjoying and exercising executive authority will be the Prime Minister who under Section 4(1) a, b, and c of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, shall have the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, including those of Ministries.
Obviously there is a lot of jealousy within Mwai Kibaki’s PNU because in the final analysis Raila becomes the most powerful person in Kenya after the President. Yes, indeed the Constitution is also clear in Section 15 about the Vice President being the principal assistant of the President in the discharge of his functions. With the existence of a Prime Minister, however, the functions of the Vice President cannot include the authority to co-ordinate and supervise the execution of the functions and affairs of the Government, technically making the Prime Minister extremely powerful in the entire Government.
There is a clique within PNU which is extremely uncomfortable with that state of affairs. The clique tried to distribute leaflets to Members of Parliament to make them reject the Constitutional amendment to create the office of the Prime Minister, but the whole exercise aborted when it was quite clear that the majority of the legislators did indeed back Raila Odinga as the most suitable person to hold that high office. The clique is obviously trying another method – that of diluting the significance of portfolios to be held by ODM ministers. The clique does not mind Kalonzo Musyoka holding the office of the Vice President.
Though the Vice President will continue to be the Leader of Government Business in Parliament, it is the Prime Minister who will always garner more political limelight due to his charismatic personality and actual powers given to him by the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008. His self confidence has always boosted his ego in whatever political camp he joins and whatever he does in the game. These characteristics of Raila Odinga make many in the PNU scared of him and therefore continue to plan for his downfall. Part of the strategy is to keep him as far away from President Kibaki as it is possible.
One of the reasons for the desperate campaign against Raila Odinga becoming a powerful Prime Minister is the fact that once he is in power the corrupt will never continue to swindle the Government through bogus contracts as theft from the Government will be more likely to be controlled if not eliminated altogether. In the midst of Raila’s political enemies are extremely powerful and rich people .Among the ministries they do not want to surrender to the ODM are geese that lay golden eggs.
When the ODM make a tough demand of setting very hard conditions to be fulfilled before they join Kibaki’s Government in a coalition, the happiest people are Raila’s enemies in PNU because they know the stiffer the conditions the less likely for Kibaki to accept them, hence keeping Raila out of Premier’s office for a long time. Accepting Kibaki’s offer as it stands may be a tactical calculation to get into the Government in order to clean it up from within.
But Raila’s problems are not in the PNU only. Some of them are to be found in the ODM itself. There are some very ambitious people in the ODM who would not only want to be ministers in the coalition Government but also high officials of the party itself. So far the party has not held any elections as such. Members of the so called Pentagon were hand picked by Raila himself and they know if they are not careful they could be shown the door. Despite the tough stand taken by the party, Raila could join hands with Kibaki any time he so wishes without anyone’s permission. This was exemplified by his spokesman’s announcement that he is still willing to negotiate with Mwai Kibaki despite his party’s official announcement rejecting such negotiations.
The greedy in ODM are also hoping to get top jobs within the Government including ambassadorial positions and powerful Permanent Secretaries’ posts. This they cannot legally achieve as Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says in subsection 2 that the powers to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Ambassador, High Commissioner or other principal representative of Kenya in another country, and to remove from office a person holding or acting in any such office, shall vest in the President.
Portfolio balance suggested by Section 4(3) of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, 2008, seems to concern itself only with political positions held by elected politicians appointed to ministerial positions. It also does not seem to include Permanent Secretaries as some ODM leaders would like us to believe. Subsection one of Section 111 of the Constitution also clearly says the power to appoint a person to hold or act in the office of Permanent Secretary, Secretary to the Cabinet or Director of Personnel shall vest in the President.
ODM may very well have a valid point when they claim that Francis Muthaura, as the current Secretary to the Cabinet, does not appear to be eager to see the coalition government taking over power in the country. Indeed that could be quite suicidal for him. But the Orange party can do nothing about Muthaura as only the President can fire him. If and when Raila becomes the Prime Minister, however, Muthaura’s powers will have to be reduced as he will have to work under the Prime Minister who presumably will also be the Minister for Cabinet Affairs.
One of the reasons the PNU is calling for a general election is to deny Raila Odinga the opportunity to take over the powerful position of the country’s Prime Minister. Many of the jealous people in the PNU claim that the unions between their party, Kanu and ODM-K plus a number of small parties could, after an election, constitute the majority in Parliament if they conduct a joint campaign. Be that as it may, going back to the people could be an extremely dangerous thing for Kibaki to do , as his team may very well be rejected by the people who see the lot them as a major obstacle in the formation of the Cabinet , which the whole country is now eagerly waiting for. An election may give the people the opportunity to reelect Raila Odinga as the leader of this country with an even bigger majority. Besides that, Kibaki may not take the risk of dissolving the current Parliament as he may not be allowed by the law to run for a third time.
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