United PNU weaker than divided ODM

PNU is trying to unite before the 2012 general elections. In the party, however, are bitter rivals, all interested in the seat at State House after the next general elections. The just ended Mombasa meeting showed a possible coalition between Kiraitu Murungi and Kalonzo Musyoka, who are likely to be PNU’s running mates. The unity between the two politicians will probably bring together all the Kambas and the Meru’s as a powerful voting bloc. The team is also likely to be joined by a section of rich Kiambu Kikuyus under the leadership of Beth Mugo and Njenga Karume.

The most conspicuous absentee at the Mombasa meeting was the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta who is said to be contemplating some form of unity with the Agriculture Minister William Ruto. Uhuru can be very unpredictable when forming coalitions with other leaders. In the last elections he tried to team up with Raila without much success. Behind Uhuru are most of the young Kikuyu voters from Kiambu who are said to be Mungiki followers. If , by some miracles, Uhuru manages to bring Ruto and his Nandi and Kipsigis supporters into this camp, the problem will be how to divide posts if , in the unlikely event , they form the government after the 2012 elections.

If they can agree to make Kalonzo their Presidential candidate with Kiraitu as his running mate and Ruto as the Prime Minister, this will be a very strong team for Raila to beat. The team will have Uhuru Kenyatta to satisfy and it may be quite likely that the first President’s son may accept to hold the same position of deputy Prime Minister as he does today. To try and get some votes from the Coast, the team may consider Chirau Ali Mwakwere as the second Deputy Prime Minister. This shaky arrangement is likely to be opposed by George Saiototi, whose presidential ambitions have never been quite removed from his head. If all these leaders can agree to back Kalonzo in 2012 then Raila will have quite a strong team to fight to succeed Kibaki as the country’s next President.

Despite the threat by William Ruto to pullout all the Kalenjins from ODM, the party is still strong throughout the country and remains in the forefront as the sole institution to form the next government without any coalition. For that to happen, however, Raila will not only have to keep a very close relationship with Musalia Mudavadi, who will most likely be his running mate, but he will also have to cajole Martha Karua and her Narc Kenya to accept the position of the next Prime Minister with Danson Mungatana as the next Deputy Prime Minister and a Minister in charge of Youth Employment.

As the most popular politician in the country Raila is likely to disband tribal grouping in political parties; but that step can only be taken when he is already the President of the country with a lot of Executive powers after 2012. For the time being, he will have to join the bandwagon of tribal political leadership of indispensable leaders in his new ODM after the departure of William Ruto, who is most likely going out of the party with rich Kalenjins from his own Nandi tribe and highly enlightened Kipsigis tycoons. The rest of the Kalenjin communities, particularly the Elgeyos, the Endorois, the Marakwet, the Pokots, the Saboat, the Terik and the Tugens, who have all not benefited much from Ruto’s present tribal leadership, are likely to remain in the ODM. When he pulls out of the ODM, Ruto cannot possibly move with all the three million voters that the Kalenjin ethnic group controls.

According to the Wikipedia encyclopedia, most of these people are pastoralists and very much like Raila’s own Luo people are said to have migrated to their present location from Sudan more than 2,000 years ago. If Kalonzo Musyoka’s dream of uniting PNU comes true the country is likely to end up with a fight between two , rather than three , political parties . It so happens that his own ODMK did not particularly differ constitutionally with Raila’s ODM. The two parties’ manifestos were also more or less the same as the PNU manifesto.

If tribal political parties have to end in Kenya then Political Parties Act has to be amended to prohibit political parties from copying constitutions of other political parties. The law should make sure that the country’s two major political parties actually stand for distinctly different ideologies from which the people can choose. It is common knowledge that the PNU stands for a unitary State of Presidential system of Government while ODM stands for Majimbo federal government structured in a Parliamentary system. No matter what type of the Constitution Nzamba Kitonga drafts the final decision about whether Kenya will be a federal State or will have a unitary Government will be determined by the people through a referendum.

After that the country will still have to choose between PNU, which will probably be fighting for a strong president and a weak Prime Minister and ODM, which has always fought for a strong Prime Minister and a figurehead President. Whereas the two parties will have to abide by the new Constitution, they have to come up with very different philosophies which don’t confuse the electorate.

According to Section 12 (1) of the Political Parties Act, parties are formed in Kenya to further purposes which are not contrary to the Constitution or any written law. Subsection Two says any citizen of Kenya who has attained the age of 18 years, subject to the provisions of this Act, has the right to form a political party. I believe this section needs to be amended to prohibit people from forming political parties that are ideologically similar. The duplication of political parties that are more or less the same ideologically has encouraged the formation of many tribal political parties that are similar except for their leadership.

Such political parties should be discouraged in Kenya. Steps to arrive at a situation where the voters of Kenya will stop thinking it terms of their tribe should be taken now that the leaders are thinking of electoral reforms. As far as possible the 2012 elections should be organized in such a manner as to have leaders who seek voter from the people based on the differences in political philosophies rather than differences in tribal or clannish origins. That however is building castles in the air, which is the wishful thinking of many Kenyan idealists.
The truth of the matter is, very sadly, that the 2012 election will be as tribal as most Kenyan elections. This will mean that the Kambas, Merus, Nandis, Kipsigis and rich Kiambu Kikuyus will vote for the PNU and the rest of the country will vote for Raila Odinga’s ODM which will form the next Government in this country.