Raila-Kalonzo wars won’t wreck the Greens

The current hot war between the Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will have little effect on the growing strengths of the Greens, as the supporters of the Proposed Constitution are wont to be known following IIEC’s decision to allocate that colour as their symbol during the referendum. As fellow Greens the two leaders may go separate ways while championing the cause of the “YES” vote but their parting will have very little negative consequences to the might of the camp.

Superficially Raila and Kalonzo are in the Green coalition to make sure the Proposed Constitution is accepted by the majority of Kenyans; but in reality they are both in the “YES” camp for very different reasons. The Vice President is in that camp mainly to protect his high office which is arguably the second most prestigious job in the country. According to Section to Section 15 (3) of the current Constitution the Vice President is the principal assistant of the President in the discharge of his functions. No matter how glamorous Kalonzo feels while occupying that office he is at the mercy of Mwai Kibaki who can fire him at any time.

Naturally there must have been some agreement between Kibaki and Kalonzo before the later was appointed the VP at a crucial time soon after the bloody 2007 elections. The two desperately needed each other to remain in politics so they solidified the unity between themselves. But that unity left Kalonzo vulnerable all the time because Section 15 (2) of the same Constitution says the President shall appoint the Vice President from among the Ministers who are elected members of the National Assembly. Which means the Vice President can be fired any time by the President no matter what secret agreement exists between them.

To remain in that top office therefore, Kalonzo must always try to be in the good books of Mwai Kibaki, who this time is determined to get the country a new Constitution. To please his boss and safely keep his job Kalonzo must dance to Mwai Kibaki’s tune no matter what his inner feelings about the Proposed Constitution are. Left to himself he would obviously rather be with William Ruto in the Reds’ camp so as to nurture the KKK ambition of forming the next Government. The Reds support the current Constitution because it can be manipulated to create three top jobs for the Kikuyu leader, the Kamba leader and the Kalenjin leader. Uniting the three tribes under the current Constitution, therefore, would have provided a President, a Vice President and a Prime Minister to the KKK leadership.

Kibaki’s determined willpower to give the Proposed Constitution to Kenyans as his legacy has actually torn the KKK plan apart. Uhuru Kenyatta has been forced to back Kibaki in his support for the Proposed Constitution because the Mungiki are in the Greens’ camp for completely different reason. The Mungiki supports the Proposed Constitution because it is the only hope of bringing about justice in Kenya on the land issue for which the Mungiki’s forefathers poured blood as Mau Mau freedom fighters in early 50s. Without Mungiki’s support Uhuru Kenyatta’s political future would come to an abrupt end.

Raila Odinga is, on the other hand, in the Greens’ camp because he believes in justice not only being done but seen to be done. Raila genuinely believes the Proposed Constitution is the best possible thing that could possibly happen to Kenya. As a political Machiavellian he sees the support of the Proposed Constitution as a stepping stone to future Presidency of Kenya.

Raila’s calculations are not far fetched because with the disintegration of the KKK, tribal politics will have very little role to play in the 2012 elections. The none-tribal unity that is likely to be the outcome of the adoption of the Proposed Constitution is likely to midwife a new brand of politics in Kenya in which ones’ tribe will be of little significance.

That eventuality is seen as a very big threat to all the political leaders who depend on ethnic nationalism to get into high offices. Such leaders can all be seen in the Reds’ camp where they are openly seeking to unite their supporters ethnically to promote the “NO” vote.

Raila Odinga is not in the Greens’ camp to please Kibaki though by being there he does so by default. He is not supporting the “YES” team because he wants to protect his job like Kalonzo Musyoka. Indeed Agwambo’s job is secure. He is holding the country’s second most powerful position because Section 15A (1) of the current Constitution creates the job of the Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya.

Though Section 3 (1) of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act gives the powers of appointing the Prime minister to the President, Subsection 2 says the person to be appointed as Prime Minister shall be an elected member of the National Assembly who is the parliamentary leader of -(a) the political party that has the largest number of members in the National Assembly; or (b) a coalition of political parties in the event that the leader of the political party that has the largest number of members in the National Assembly does not command the majority in the National Assembly.

Raila Odinga is therefore the Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya because, among other things, he is the leader of the largest political party in the Legislature. According to the First Schedule of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act, the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Ministers can only be removed if the National Assembly passes a motion of no confidence with a majority vote. The principles of partnership between Raila and Kibaki were signed on February 28, 2008 following the crisis triggered by the 2007 disputed presidential elections which brought to the surface deep-seated and long-standing divisions within Kenyan society. Unlike Kalonzo, Raila has absolutely nothing to fear about his job. Kibaki cannot, even if he wants to, fire the Prime Minister.

Looked at in this manner it is clear that Kalonzo Musyoka and Raila Odinga are in the Greens’ camp for very different reasons. Though they now puddle in the same canoe, they are intrinsically miles apart politically. And that has always been the case whenever the two were brought together by circumstances beyond their individual control. Before Raila and Kalonzo became birds of the same feather Kalonzo was a loyal servant of President Daniel arap Moi in Kanu where Raila joined in 2002 when he brought his National Development Party (NDP)to corporate with Moi’s Kanu.

At that time Moi thought he would destroy the NDP by making Raila Kanu’s Secretary General. Instead he created a Frankenstein who destroyed Kanu from within. For a short time Raila was in Kanu as the party’s Secretary General, Kalonzo felt betrayed by Moi who established a quick friendship with a “stranger” and made him Kalonzo’s boss in the party.

When Raila pulled out of Kanu to form the Liberal Democratic Party after Moi anointed Uhuru Kenyatta as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2002 general elections, Kalonzo, together with Saitoti followed him. But while in the LDP Kalonzo was always challenging Raila’s leadership and the two never saw eye to eye on any issue. Even when they finally won the election under the National Rainbow Coalition they never warmed to each other in the first Kibaki Cabinet where they both belonged. The two politicians found themselves in the same camp again in the 2005 referendum. After that there was a tug-of-war between the two over the leadership of ODM-K which saw Raila’s pulling out and establishing ODM just before the 2007 elections.

The current rivalry between the two leaders will never end soon because it is extremely deep rooted. Kalonzo thinks Raila, as the unchallenged leaders of the Greens, is sure to win the country’s Presidency in the next elections in 2012. Raila’s supporters think they can destroy Kalonzo politically by heckling him at all the “YES” rallies. That way, they think, they can succeed in painting him as a “traitor” who cannot be trusted. All in the name of the 2012 elections. But the animosity between the two leaders will not in anyway affect the strength of the Greens who will from now become even more formidable before the deadline of August 4th.