Raila-Kibaki peace plan after referendum

There is hope that Kenya will be a peaceful country after the referendum. The amount of work that needs to be done to fulfill the aspirations of the Proposed Constitution will inevitably solidify the Raila-Kibaki unity brought about by the two leaders’ congruent beliefs in reforms. But that rosy picture will only come to fruition if the country votes “YES” on August 4th when the destiny of this nation will be determined by ordinary people whose future will depend entirely on the decision they make on that crucial day.

The campaign for the “YES” solution to the constitutional problem in Kenya by President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has given the country the opportunity to see for the first time since the formation of the coalition Government, soon after the bloody 2007 elections, that the two leaders can indeed work together for a common goal. Many are the sad times when the coalition government faced the danger of breaking up due to internal squabbles. But the referendum seems to have solved that problem which has made the ODM and PNU leaders realize that the country prefers them united rather than parochially separated.

Whenever Kibaki and Raila clash the entire government comes to a standstill. The disagreements between the two have seen Cabinet meetings postponed and important decisions swept under the carpet to the detriment of progress and stability in the entire country. Whenever the squabbles take place there has always been a secret hand manipulating the antagonistic rivalries for very selfish reasons. It so happens that those who have benefited from the Kibaki- Raila wrangles are now all in the “NO” camp campaigning for the rejection of the Proposed Constitution.

The rich tycoons who have always surrounded the President and made him make the most unpopular decisions against the people of Kenya such as the invasion of the Standard newspaper group in 2006, are all in the “NO” camp. One such person is John Michuki who was the first to defend the State terrorist action against the media by claiming that rattling a snake would always lead to a bite. William Ruto is yet another person in the “NO” camp who always took an uncompromising stand against Kikuyus in general and Mwai Kibaki in particular.

Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the Kibaki-Raila unity during the current campaign is bound to bring about far-reaching political change in the relationship between PNU and ODM. Indeed it is the thought of these changes that make some in the PNU feel so scared of Raila Odinga that they have become “watermelons” while supporting the Proposed Constitution. The realization of the fact that the majority of Kenyans are determined to have a new constitution after the referendum has considerably weakened the “watermelon” strength to the detriment of the “NO” camp.

The latest Raila-Kibaki political cooperation is likely to bring about an inevitable Cabinet reshuffle whatever the outcome of the referendum. It is with this reshuffle in mind that Uhuru Kenyatta is now mobilizing the Gema community in favour of the “YES” camp following what was tagged the "Limuru Declaration" which was soon to be followed by the so-called "Machakos Declaration". The Limuru Declaration was born when the Central Province MPs joined hands with the GEMA leaders including the Mungiki leadership and vowed to bring five million votes in support of the “YES” camp. The purpose of the declaration was to boost the image of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as the leading light of the campaign for the “YES” vote in Central Province, rather than the Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

On the other had the Machakos Declaration was also born when the Kamba MPs joined hands with the community’s top civil servant to deliver the “YES” vote in the Kambaland. At the meeting the Minister for Water, Charity Ngiu, openly told her tribesmen that backing the “NO" camp was the surest way of losing the Vice Presidency now held by a fellow Mkamba Kalonzo Musyoka. The two declarations prove that the Kikuyus and Kambas realize that the Raila-Kibaki unity is bound to bring about the desired peace in the country which will call for loyalty in the new structure of the Government after the referendum.

Whatever happens after the referendum Mwai Kibaki will remain the President of the Republic of Kenya and Raila Odinga will remain the Prime Minister of the Government of Kenya. The task before them will be either to try and get a new constitution in Kenya if the Proposed Constitution is rejected, or to implement a number of plans suggested by the new constitution, if it is accepted by the people. Either way some heads must roll to create room for a new loyal team the Prime Minister and the President can work with. Among the first group of people to be shown the door will be the so called watermelons who by that time will be trusted by no one. The “NO” camp will have made enough use of them and the “YES” camp will have realized they are only a bunch of traitors.

According to the latest polls conducted by the South Consulting on behalf of the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation (KNDR) half of the registered voters have already decided to vote “Yes” for the Proposed Constitution and a quarter have already decided to vote “NO”. This group is mostly made up of churchgoing Christians who are obviously influenced by the Clergy. The quarter that is still undecided will determine which side will carry the day. It is a group that is most likely to be influenced by the side that is likely to create a more stable and peaceful Kenya. With Raila and Kibaki united, Kenya is likely to be more stable and peaceful. The Kibaki- Raila unity therefore is likely to attract more people from the group that has not made up its mind yet.

The undecided group is likely to be influenced by the truth-telling “YES” camp that can easily substantiate all the claims made by their leaders in the campaign trails. Untruthful allegations made against the Proposed Constitution by the “NO” camps are so easily rebutted by the CoE and the civil society backing the Proposed Constitution , that more and more people are joining the “YES” camp everyday. Though hampered by the lack of money, civic education has helped many Kenyans make up their minds about the Proposed Constitution.

The role played by the Fourth Estate in making the people understand the contents of the Proposed Constitution is very crucial. Media Houses that seem to be unprofessional in the coverage of the referendum are likely to be exposed before the referendum day. Addressing journalists at a workshop recently, the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Information and Communication, Dr. Bitange Ndemo challenged the Media Council to work with the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) to expose journalists who engage in hate speech. Whether the Media Council takes the challenge seriously it seems the Government will not allow the media to be used by anyone to disturb the peace of the country this time.

Whatever the case may be the people of Kenya have realized the importance of peace and stability in their country. If that peace will come about as a result of Raila-Kibaki cooperation then that cooperation, which is the core of the “YES” camp, is likely to attract more people in the "YES" camp. It is also likely to lay the foundation stone for a new slogan of peace and unity that will be the clarion call for all Kenyans after the referendum.