Referendum: Polls point to the truth

Two more opinion polls show that the “YES” camp will win on August 4th. Yet church leaders are still adamantly determined to tear this country apart by insisting on telling their flock to vote “NO”. History will be extremely unkind to them unless they come to their senses now and mobilize the country to unite for the sake of peace and stability. It is not too late for the Clergy to insist on a MoU with the Government to ensure that their desire to amend the Proposed Constitution's contentious issues will be given the first priority after the adaptation of the Draft law.

The Prediction by Synovate that the “YES” team ill win by 58% and by Infotrak Harris that it will win by 65% give the average figure of a win by 61% as the most likely indicator of a true picture on the ground. The remaining period of slightly more than a week can make that figure go even higher. This simply means the Clergy in this nation is about to lose face among its flock. Kenyans have decided that they only take their religious leaders seriously on spiritual matters of prayers and divinity. But on temporal and particularly political issues they know the expert knowledge is not to be found with the noisy church leaders.

The interdenominational prayer for next Friday, therefore, should be devoted to seeking remedies to the ailment of disunity in the country. So far all the church leaders have realized that their adamant stand against the Proposed Constitution has been rejected by their own flock and instead of waiting to lose face on August 4, they should now do something not only to save face but also to engage in a noble duty of damage control that the entire nation desperately needs. Swahilis have a wonderful saying: Asiyekubali kushindwa sio mshindani. This means the same thing as the English one which says: He who fights and runs away may live to fight another day.

The Clergy should now start running away from the chaos they have created in the country and embark on preparing for an even more honourable fight for peace and stability in this nation. This is the time for them to answer to their true calling of men and women of God who seek peace, unity and justice rather than being the instruments of promoting injustice and disunity that will only bring about animosity and bloodshed in the country. The Clergy should be the first to know that the Proposed Constitution aims at ending injustices that have always favoured the rich against the poor.

The Clergy should also know that their adamant “NO” stand has made it extremely difficult for some people to make the right decision on the Proposed Constitution. Among the majority of the undecided voters are people who know the Proposed Constitution is good for their country; but fear to go against the word of church leaders who symbolize the God they worship. Little do these people know that the Clergy is only backing the “NO” camp for monetary gains from the American conservative rightist churches of fundamentalist persuasion fighting President Barack Obama on his own fatherland.

The latest opinion polls show that the number of people supporting the Proposed Constitution is steadily increasing after dropping very fast following a rejuvenated campaign by church leaders using the Christian gospel and crusades as their disguised platform for the “NO” campaign. But that trend is changing and changing very fast. The only plausible reason can either be the fact that people have learnt to see through the camouflaged image of deceitful church leaders, or that there is a new force that has helped them see the light in the Proposed Constitution . That new force can only be the introduction of senior civil servants as a new brigade for the “YES” campaigners.

The decision by President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga to unleash the Civil Servants to join the “YES” camp of the campaign is the most controversial administrative order to be made by the two since they took over the joint leadership of this nation. Condemnation against that decision has come from many quarters including the IIEC which is mandated to ensure that the referendum is carried out in a free and fair manner.

The IIEC is also backed by the Cap 183 of the Laws of Kenya which is also known as the Public Officer Ethics Act whose Section 16 (1) says clearly that a public officer shall not , in or in connection with the performance of his duty as such (a) act as an agent for , or so as to further interest of, a political party, or act as an agent for, or so as to further the interest of, a political party; or (b) indicate support for or opposition to any political party or a candidate in an election .Section 16 (2) of the Act says a public officer shall not engage in political activity that may compromise the political neutrality of his office .

The big question that must be answered by the Head of the Civil Service, Francis Kirimi Muthaura, is whether participating in the campaigns for the “YES” camp is engaging in political activities. There are many political pundits who believe the entire exercise of selling the Proposed Constitution to the people is a Government project that must be propagated by everyone in the Government whether civil servants or politicians. Supporters of this point of view argue that the implementation of Agenda Four would be impossible without the Proposed Constitution and the people in the forefront for that implementation are the civil servants. Hence the importance of involving them in the “YES” campaigns.

Fearing that the political limelight in their constituencies is about to be stolen by the top civil servants in the campaign trail, members of Parliament have belatedly decided to adjourn Parliamentary sittings to take part in the campaign for or against the Proposed Constitution. The majority of them are backing the “YES” camp. But many of them are doing so for very selfish reasons knowing very well voters will probably be absolutely ruthless with any political leader opposed to the Proposed Constitution. The willingness of MPs to adjourn the National Assembly, instead of using the august House as a campaign platform for higher pay, means they have read the writing on the wall which shows the mood of the people is totally opposed to their greed.

The return of MPs to their constituencies to participate in the referendum campaigns will also means the “YES” teams will now have the top civil servants backed by MPs plus a number of clerics and pastors who are likely to change from “NO” to “YES” camps due to their opportunistic tendencies. This is extremely bad news for the opponents of the Proposed Constitution who must be closely observed by everyone lest they decide to change their anger into violence.

As the country approaches the voting day security in some areas traditionally associated with election violence has been beefed up. This is the correct way of dealing with the situation. If ever there will be any danger to the security of the country, it is most likely to occur in areas dominated by “NO” supporters. These are the people who will be disappointed and as was the case after the 2007 election, the disappointed people may resort to illegal demonstrations and destruction of property. Security forces in these areas have correctly been beefed up. But when it comes to security matters it is the ordinary people who must be the eyes and ears of the Government. Anyone plotting against the outcome of the referendum must be exposed right now before the first vote is cast.