Referendum: Michuki’s “watermelon” betrayal

The Defection of John Michuki to the “YES” camp is a serious blow to the “NO” group. William Ruto depended entirely on the support of the so-called “watermelons” to win support of the Eastern and Central provinces. The most important man in the Central Province “watermelon” group was Michuki who can easily be regarded as the most powerful politician in the entire Muranga District.

Michuki’s departure from the “NO” camp means big money is moving to the “YES” group which was beginning to feel the shortage of funds to conduct its campaigns. Following the decision to stop using Government funds in the campaigns, the “RED” camp with so much money from American extremist churches has appeared to have “more money than God” to spend in their campaigns. The chances of Kikuyu tycoons contributing to the “YES” camp’s funds,however, are still very remote because among them are some people who feel threatened by the prospects of a new constitution challenging the sources of their wealth.

John Michuki and his friends are, in that case, backing the President in the “YES” camp to protect their wealth rather than to make sure the “NO” camp is defeated. As prominent business people they stand to gain while they remain in the President’s good books instead of antagonizing him. The bottom line of the entire exercise means the “watermelons” will be more subterranean than before; but as they will now be forced to operate like a clandestine organization, they are bound to be considerably weakened as they can no longer try to recruit supporters openly.

The close relationship between the President and the Prime Minister has also been a major threat to the Mount Kenya Mafia surrounding Mwai Kibaki. The group, which has always been a major threat to the coalition Government, has been operating under the leadership of the Head of the Civil Service Francis Muthaura who now has to take orders from Raila Odinga as the chief campaigner of the “YES” camp. The decision to have the Permanent Secretaries in the Government campaign for the “YES” camp has only strengthened Raila Odinga’s position in the coalition Government, which is perceived as a major blow to the Mount Kenya Mafia.

Raila Odinga’s undisputed stewardship of the “YES” camp, which has the total backing of the President, has made the Mount Kenya Mafia feel completely outmaneuvered by the Prime Minister at a time a Cabinet reshuffle is just around the corner soon after the referendum. If Muthaura and Michuki are to have any influence at all in that Cabinet reshuffle which will involve promotions and demotions of many top civil servants as well as Ministers and Assistant Ministers, then the time to start influencing Mwai Kibaki towards winning that goal is now. There could be no better way of doing so than to prove to the President to be absolutely loyal to the Head of State by remaining in or coming back to the “YES” camp.

One of the major reasons for John Michuki coming back to the “YES” camp is the fact that every dirty movement to make the “NO” camp triumph has been reported to the President and the Prime Minister by the National Security Intelligence Service (NSIS). Having been the boss of this institution as the former Minister for Internal Security, John Michuki knows the operations of the NSIS. Engaging in any anti Kibaki clandestine organization in whatever form would only end up jeopardizing his status as a top businessman in the country. It did not take long for Michuki to realize that he was in the “NO” camp at his own peril.

With John Michuki, Francis Muthaura, Uhuru Kenyatta, Njenga Karume, Maina Njenga, Martha Karua, Kiraitu Murungi, Gitobu Imanyara and Wangari Maathai backing the “YES” camp more than 70 per cent of the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru voters in the forthcoming referendum are likely to support the Proposed Constitution. Yet the relationship between Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, which disturbs the Mount Kenya Mafia so much, is not likely to breakup soon as the two leaders have just realized what a formidable force, both within and outside the Government, their cooperation amounts to.

The newly found political alliance between Kibaki and Raila has given each one of them an excellent opportunity to get rid of their enemies in their two political parties PNU and ODM. The incompetent Ministers from these two parties, who could not be fired because of the important positions they held in the pre-coalition Government days, can now be shown the door without any fear of unpleasant political upheavals. These include Naomi Shaban, William Ruto and Samuel Poghisio.

A major outcome of a new Constitution after the referendum is the fact that the Coalition Government will be more powerful and united with very few Ministries occupied by competent politicians and technocrats. Given the fact that Kenyans have an insatiable desire for top public jobs, a new trend of exhibiting total loyalties to Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga as well as to the PNU and ODM will gain momentum in the last two weeks of the referendum campaigns swelling the numbers of the “YES” camp to the amazement of the Clergy and William Ruto. Kalonzo Musyoka is also likely to take advantage of the situation and strengthen his ODM-K by firing out of the party the rebels he has always wanted to get rid of.

Very soon the “NO” camp will start crying foul as the full force of top civil servant’s campaign for the “YES” begin to bare fruits. Already an extremely powerful advertisement which shows the atrocities of bloodbath following the post 2007 election violence and reminding the viewers that such blood bath could be avoided by voting “YES” , have changed thousands of the undecided voters to support the Proposed Constitution for the sake of peace. The advertisement is likely to make the “NO” camp complain that it paints them as people who want no peace in the country.

The complaint they have made against the American President Barrack Obama supporting the “YES” camp has had an opposite reaction as Obama is an extremely popular leader in Kenya. Kenyans accept him as a fellow countryman who is entitled to openly say which side of the Proposed Constitution he backs. Many political observers have also wondered why the “NO” camp is complaining of American intervention at this stage when top leaders from that powerful nation were openly welcome to the country soon after the 2007 clashes to help us solve our problem at that time.

Long before the 2007 elections Americans seemed to have been involved in Kenyan politics. At that time they supported the ODM and William Ruto thought it was OK. Then they supported the peace process after we started slaughtering one another, and the Clergy thought it was OK. Now the Americans are supporting both the “YES” camp and the “NO” group. Obama may be backing the Raila-Kibaki side but the American Christian fundamentalists are also supporting the “NO” camp financially and they have publicly accepted that. William Ruto has no problem with the American funds for the “NO” camp.

The contest between the “YES” and “NO” camp has reached a Darwinian stage of survival of the fittest in the struggle for existence. As all is fair in love and war, the fight is going to be even rougher. Fortunately with Michuki firmly in the “YES” camp some of the most dangerous tycoons who could have financed dirty tricks will now work for the peaceful conclusion of the referendum. The struggle for political power within the ODM and PNU new structure under the leadership of united Raila-Kibaki cooperation will take a new turn which may be beneficial to the country. We are in for some very dramatic change in the whole campaign which will see the Proposed Constitution being accepted by well over 70 per cent of Kenyan voters.