Friday, November 20, 2009

Draft Constitution boosts Raila’s chances

The Draft Constitution is the closest Kenya has come to establishing a truly democratic society. It obviously favours those who have been struggling to establish such a society where political leadership is transparent and accountable to the people. One such person is Raila Odinga. His long struggle to demolish an imperial presidency has been fulfilled by Nzamba Kitonga’s success in coming up with a document that eradicates all the past despotic evils of dictatorial presidents. The evils came in the form of concentrating too much power in the hands of the demigod Presidents.

In a country where political survival has, for a long time, depended on tribal hegemony of ethnic supremacists, Nzamba Kitonga and the Minister for Constitutional Affairs, Mutula Kilonzo, as the two people who steered the formulation of the Draft, would have been accused of boosting their own tribe if Raila Odinga was a Kamba. The fact that both Mutula and Nzamba happen to be Kambas is a sheer coincidence. Similarly the accusations of the Draft Constitution appearing to support Raila are misconceived perceptions based on ignorance and lack of understanding of recent political development in Kenya.

An unbiased examination of those developments will clearly reveal that political parties in Kenya are by and large ethnic institutions under the leadership of ambitious tribal chiefs camouflaged as national leaders. That is with the exception of the Raila’s Orange Democratic Party which, though personally controlled by the Prime Minister, is a national party with leaders from all corners of the country. Sure enough, the most powerful political position in Kenya, if the draft Constitution is accepted by the people, will be that of the Prime Minister. But no one can dream of becoming a Prime Minister in Kenya if he or she does not lead a powerful political party capable of winning the majority of seats in the Legislature.

The only way to make sure that Raila does not become the first powerful executive Prime Minister after the 2012 elections is to remove him from the leadership of the ODM in a democratic manner. The other way is to establish a powerful non tribal political party to rival the ODM in every part of the country before 2012. Such an undertaking would be an uphill task for leaders who are already stigmatized as both tribal and hegemonic monsters.

Given the fact that there have been two Presidents from the Central Province there is little wonder that MPs from that area are still lamentably calling for an imperial President. Arguing that because the Draft Constitution demands that the President gets the mandate of the people before occupying State House, and therefore the elected President deserves to have more powers than what they call “unelected” Prime Minister, the MPs’ hope is to confuse Kenyans and make them reject Nzamba’s proposals. In that confusion may be a man from Central Province, hopefully Uhuru Kenyatta, could end up the third Kikuyu President for Kenya. Such a wishful thinking is building castles in the air. It would take an unusually clever conjurer’s trick to convince Kenyans that the next executive President should come from Kiambu.

The claim that the Draft Constitution favours a Prime Minister who is not elected by the people is as misleading as it is malicious. To qualify to be a Prime Minister one has to be the leader of the largest political party or coalition parties represented in the national assembly. Political parties don’t become the largest parties in the national assembly without the consent of the people. As a matter of fact to achieve that goal, a political party has to be national and acceptable to diverse people of Kenya, which is far more difficult than receiving more than half of all the vote cast in the presidential election even though it also requires at least twenty five percent of the vote cast in the majority of the regions.

It is also wrong and most misleading to claim that the Draft Constitution crates an office of a figurehead President. The elected President of Kenya after 2012 would be a very powerful person with very well elaborated State functions as well as Legislative functions which can hardly be described as duties of an impotent Head of State. For anyone to exercise those powers he or she should rightly get the consent of the people. By getting his or her many candidates win elections in the majority of the constituencies in various parts of the country the Prime Minister would have demonstrated clearly to have the support of the people.

There are many possible positive outcomes of the Draft Constitution. One of them would be the establishment of national political parties that are not parochially tribal. These would be parties that would compete on ideological differences rather than ethnic diversity. Briefcase political parties will be a thing of the past. The demand by the Draft Constitution to have regular elections in political parties would also introduce badly needed internal democracy in political parties. Being the most favoured person by the new Draft, Raila is likely to spend more time revamping and strengthening the ODM. Holding the already powerful position of Prime Minister he is likely to perform that duty so magnificently that very soon ODM will have offices where there will be long queues of people seeking party membership.

Knowing very well the power of the Kikuyu vote in any election in Kenya, a special recruitment ODM team is likely to be formulated in Central Province to fish for Kikuyu membership, particularly among the Kikuyu youth and even among the members of the Mungiki clandestine organization. Raila’s friendly approach in dealing with the Mungiki menace is a very well calculated political maneuver which Agwambo is a master of.

Despite its popularity ODM has its own internal problems caused by the rebellious William Ruto and Najib Balala. Their departure from the party means Raila will pay special attention to the party development in both the Rift Valley and the Coast provinces. In both places the Prime Minister has identified people who can easily step into Ruto and Balala’s shoes. Raila’s job in doing this will be made very easy by national mobilization against tribal politics. Stigmatizing Ruto as a tribal leader, however, may be a lot easier than disgracing the non tribal Arab Balala who can only be fought by reminding the coastal Mijikenda people of the dishonorable historical role of the Arabs in that part of the world. That Raila can do most effectively through his charismatic public attraction.

To get the massive support of the Luhya people Raila is likely to groom Musalia Mudavadi as the country’s next President. It will not be surprising at all if Raila starts grooming some young man or woman for the position of Deputy President. Very much like Moi, Raila will soon start using top Government positions, including that of the Deputy Prime Minister as political baits to win popular support from all parts of the country. This method is likely to work wonders for Raila who is sure to be the Prime Minister of Kenya from 2012 for a very long time to come because, unlike the position of the President, there is no limited term of office for the premier.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Carson should have hit harder

Johnnie Carson’s ban on a senior Kenyan official is both timely and effective. The official has been stopped from visiting America. The US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs’ threat to 15 prominent Kenyans in September to ban them from visiting the US unless they stopped their systematic opposition to political reforms in Kenya, has now started to work. Since then the 15 have gone underground and don’t want to talk about the issue in public. They feel like lepers isolated from the rest of the community.

The Carson tactic could work wonders. When African politicians are stopped from traveling to Europe or America they feel completely disoriented and absolutely insulted. What good is money if it can’t buy all the goodies to be found in Western capitals? That is why many of them send their children to America and Western Europe for both secondary and university education though Kenya has more universities today than at any other time in history. A lot of our leaders have no trust in the country they lead. That is why many of them have their real bank accounts in either America and or in Western Europe.

Carson should therefore not only have banned a nameless influential individual Kenyan official, but he should also have named all the other 15 he had written to a month ago. And what is more he should have frozen all their bank accounts which contains money they have looted from the people of Kenya. Furthermore he should have announced that the children and other relatives of the named people now living in America were going to be deported back to Kenya. That is the language our leaders understand.

More than anyone else, Carson, who has served his country as the Ambassador in Nairobi, understands all the tricks in subterfuge that Kenyan leaders engage in while dealing with the international community. He knows, for example, when Kofi Annan visited the country recently, attempts were made to mislead him and make him believe the country was really serious in implementing Agenda Four reforms. Carson knows Annan found a lot of rotten skeletons in Kenyan leaders’ cupboards.

The visit by Kafi Annan to review reform progress, Carson knows, exposed Kenyan leaders as the most hypocritical people who can go as far as spending public funds to cheat and hoodwink wananchi into believing that the coalition Government was serious about Agenda Four. On October 4th when the former UN Secretary General landed on Kenya, the Government chose to shamelessly tell the people a complete lie through an advertisement in all the national newspapers by the Government spokesman, Dr. Alfred Mutua, who must obviously be underestimating the intelligence of the people of Kenya.

As if he was addressing primary school kids, Mutua imprudently told Kenyans that the Government had achieved what he called a “reform performance” Grade “A” or 90 per cent. The very thought of coming up with such a wicked propaganda, and in such thoughtless format, proved that the Government spokesman, and the people he speaks for, live in a completely different world from that in which the wananchi of this country dwell.

It took Kofi Annan a very short time to realize that the so called leaders of Kenya were planning for yet another bloodbath in the Rift Valley where Kikuyu Mungiki hooligans and Kalenjin militias are collecting dangerous military guns in preparation for another confrontation between them in 2012. Depending on a South Consulting report the former UN Secretary General warned that serious crimes in Kenya were going up and that warlords, who have always won elections in Kenya through threats and bloodshed, hadn’t gone to sleep, but were indeed still preparing to kill more Kenyans in three year’s time.

The South Consulting October report says although post-election violence ended with the signing of the National Accord in February 2008, new forms of crime have arisen in different parts of the country. In areas affected by post election violence, threats against certain communities perceived as ‘outsiders’ persist. Kenyans must be wondering why it took Kofi Annan to come all the way from Europe to expose a heinous plot by our leaders to remain in power through mass murders.

Carson is also aware that on October 6th Raila and Kibaki tried to sanitize Mutua’s dirty propaganda by paying for full page advertisements in all the national papers, and telling the people a story closer to the truth regarding the progress Kenya was making in achieving Agenda Four reforms. But up and above Agenda Four, Carson is likely to raise the issue of insecurity in the country, with the two principals. It is amazing that neither President Kibaki nor Prime Minister Odinga has come up with convincing truth about the security situation in the country. None of them has come up with a clear condemnation on the preparation for war between Kikuyus and Kalenjins in the Rift Valley.

While in Kenya, Carson will most certainly raise the issue with the two principals and demand that the two become more open to the people about the dangerous issue. He must have read the South Consulting October report which says there is a continuation of old illegal armed groups and the emergence of new ones. According to the report some of the new ones have mutated from the old groups. Further, the report says, the groups are emboldened by the failure to successfully prosecute members suspected to have taken part in criminal activities in the past. As reported in the past reports, says the report, lack of policy guidelines on how to deal with organized crime and the fact that some groups enjoy the backing of powerful political leaders have combined to limit actions that would eliminate these groups. This notwithstanding, adds the report, criminal groups have no support among Kenyans -- many people prefer the police to these groups.

The news about constant meetings among Kalenjin Leaders must be extremely worrying. They claim to be meeting about “social and cultural issues”. If that is the case then why are the agendas of these meetings not made public? Why are journalists not invited to the meetings? Another group of leaders engaged in clandestine meetings is that from the Central Province. They claim to be planning “one man one vote” in the next general election. The relationship between the Kalenjins and the Kikuyus has been disturbingly cool ever since the last general election when the two ethnic groups were virtually engaged in a civil war. What is the Government doing to harmonize the relationship between these vital ethnic groups in the country? When Kofi Annan warns of planned conflict in 2012 whom exactly did he have in mind? And why do journalists not write exposes on these national stories? What has happened to investigative journalism in this country?

Monday, September 7, 2009

Raila’s silence on Ringera baffling

The Prime Minister has been mysteriously quiet on the Ringera controversy. His silence is puzzling the whole country. The enigmatic manner in which Raila Odinga is treating the Ringera affair means Agwambo has something up his sleeve, on which he is probably still working and, when he is ready to let the cat out of the bag, it will be quick and punchy. His first reaction will come with such a big explosion that it will shock both Aaron Ringera and Mwai Kibaki, who has had the impudence to unilaterally give the retired judge a new contract, at the risk of angering the whole nation. The manner in which the Ringera debate has been conducted so far indicates the majority of Kenyans have had enough of the old lawyer; not because he is not qualified for the controversial job, but because of the perception of his sluggish pace to expose the big fish among the corrupt and his apparent lack of enthusiasm to prosecute them.

Having once been falsely accused by a section of the community of being involved in maize scandal, that is said to have included his son Fidel, Raila must be extremely careful before he openly attacks the man who, ostensibly, would have investigated the Prime Minister and his son following the false allegations. Indeed there are some people who believe Agwambo should have called for an inquiry to investigate both his family and himself to prove that he undeniably was not involved in any corrupt activities. Now that a lot of time has passed since the allegations, Raila does not want to appear to be rejoicing at the misery of the man who was supposed to probe him. Hence the deliberate silence. But there are many other reasons that could have made the Prime Minister buy his time before commenting on the hottest issue of the day.

First the Prime Minister must be enjoying the embarrassment the President is going through for acting unilaterally without consulting the right people. Strangely, the President’s imprudent act came about only when Francis Muthaura returned to his office after a long absence caused by ill health. Inevitably, people will wonder why Kibaki deliberately ignores Agwambo only when Muthaura is around. This time, however, he has done so at his own peril. For taking the thoughtless action of single handedly renewing Ringera’s contract, the President is paying heavily, even though many respected lawyers believe he did nothing illegal. Raila must be enjoying seeing Kibaki against the wall for preferring to consult Muthaura rather than his equal in the coalition Government.

Secondly the Prime Minister must be enjoying seeing the President being chased around the political field of intrigue by Parliamentarians who seem to have very little respect for the Head of State. The cat and mouse game between the President and the Legislature proves that Kibaki has neither full control of the Executive, to which Raila belongs and controls a very substantial share, nor the Parliament, which is fully controlled by Agwambo. The fight between Kibaki and Parliament also proves that ignoring the Prime Minister in making major decisions in the country can be extremely costly for the President. The continued silence by Raila keeps Kibaki in the torture chamber for a longer period, where the Prime Minister hopes the President can learn a lesson of his lifetime.
The current confrontation between the Executive and the Legislature can probably be sorted out in court, but before then, Parliament can do something to remove the ambiguity in the Anti Corruption and Economic Crimes Act, which has landed the country in a political quagmire. The warring parties do not disagree on the manner in which the Director and his assistants should be appointed. The bone of contention is on how the Directors’ contracts can be renewed. The President, and the people who back him, seem to think the law empowers the Head o State to renew the Directors’ contracts without consulting anyone.

His opponents seem to think the President has no such powers without consulting the Advisory Board and getting the approval of Parliament. As the debate continues the whole issue has been politicized and old political wounds have been reopened. Parliament should take the fastest step possible to amend the Act and remove the ambiguities. Either the President has the powers to unilaterally renew Ringera’s contract or he doesn’t and the law should be clear about that issue.

Now the debate has taken a new turn with ODM insisting the President broke the law and PNU explaining that no law has been broken by the reappointment of Ringera. The old ODM-PNU rivalries on governance issues are at play in pulling the country apart in political confusion at taxpayer’s expenses. MPs continue to draw fat allowances when all they are debating on is whether or not Ringera was properly reappointed to serve his second term.

Meanwhile the MPs and Ministers, whose files Ringera had opened while investigating graft, wish the debate will never end before Ringera is sent home and corruption cases against them can finally be swept under the carpet. Some MPs are even suggesting that the entire ACCK should be disbanded and Ringera and his complete team should be sent packing. If that happens, it will be the most irresponsible act by Kenya’s Legislature in recent history. No matter how lackadaisical people may think Ringera has been, he has started some very vital investigations which cannot be wished away because some MPs think his reappointment has been done irregularly.

Before MPs send Ringera away and maybe even disband the KACC, the people who pay Ringera and sustain the institution he heads must be told the nature and content of the 498 files which he has handed to the Attorney General for prosecution. A lot of MPs are probably in those files and they would not like Ringera to talk about them. There are eight Ministers who Ringera has recommended for prosecution for corruption. Five of these Ministers served in the former Kenyan Governments and three of them are still Minister in the Kibaki-Raila Government. Wananchi would obviously like to know who these Ministers are and what nature of corruption Ringera is accusing them of. Arguing about the manner in which Ringera’s contract has been renewed will not change the situation. Eight Ministers are still being accused by Ringera. The big question is: Do Kenyans want to back Ringera on this particular issue or do they want to back eight corrupt politicians now hitting so hard against Ringera?

In a Press Statement issued by Nicholas M. Simani, the KACC principle Public Relations and Protocol Officer, the anti corruption body shows that Ringera has made major pro-active interventions that have saved this nation billions of shillings which would have ended up in top corrupt public officials’ pockets .These include a 2.2 billion shilling mis-procurement in the Kenya Sugar Board, one billion shillings mis-procurement of cranes at the Kenya Ports Authority and many other proven cases which mysteriously have been given a total blackout by the local media. What is of greater significance to Kenyan journalists, the vanishing billions that end up with corrupt officials, who Ringera has exposed, or the manner in which his contract is being renewed? What has happened to the news values of Kenyan journalists? What about their own ethical principles of accuracy, impartiality and fair play? The world is watching the misbehaviour of the Fourth Estate in Kenya with a lot of interest.

Friday, September 4, 2009

Corruption is fighting Ringera back

The countless enemies of Aaron Ringera are up in arms. Daggers have been drawn against the KACC boss for more reasons than meets the eye. His invisible, yet extremely powerful, enemies include tribalism, party politics, professional jealousy and, last but not least, corruption itself. For the whole week now the entire country, led by the Fourth Estate, has buried its head in the sand and totally declined to listen to reason on the need to renew Ringera’s contract. Making more noise than anyone else, Parliament itself has condemned the retired Judge’s reappointment as illegal. That, despite the fact that the august House is full of lawyers, who simply refused to be logical and instead became so openly partisan, tribal and unreasonable.

The claim that the reappointment of Ringera was illegal was based on either the ignorance of the law or a deliberate misinterpretation of it. The relevant part of the Anti Corruption and Economic Crimes Act, under which the KACC comes, was expertly discussed in a well written article in the Daily Nation by the Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Mutula Kilonzo, who reveals that no law was broken by Mwai Kibaki when he reappointed Ringera to serve the second five year term. What is shocking is the number of lawyers, including the KACC Board Chairman, Okongo Omogeni, who have ganged up to oppose the reappointment of Ringera. Did these lawyers tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth? Facts don’t support their case.

The fact that Mwai Kibaki broke no law does not mean he behaved in the most upright, decent or honest manner. His act of ignoring the KACC Board simply means he is an extremely stubborn, pigheaded and may be very obdurate old man who is drunk with power and does not hesitate to exhibit it. Doing so, however, does not mean he is breaking any law. So the Board members have every reason to be upset, but they should not do so by exposing their ignorance of the very law that puts them there. Parliament is making a lot of noise and getting very disconcerted for nothing.

The law does not say that the Legislature has to be consulted before the Director is reappointed to serve a second term. According to the law Parliament is only involved in approving candidates to be hired by the Commission. Ringera had already gone through that procedure before he was hired. Something is seriously very wrong when the whole Parliament becomes embarrassingly so worked up at the taxpayers expense. The LSK is taking the matter to Court but Mutula has already interpreted the law for them.

For the short time that the KACC Director has served Kenya he has made very many powerful enemies including Minister in the current Government. Among the people he has recommended to the Attorney General for persecution are three Ministers in the Kibaki-Raila Government and 58 Chief Executives of Public Corporations. Ringera should now publicly announce the names of the people he wants the Attorney General to prosecute. That way we shall know who his enemies really are. The biggest problem with Ringera is that he has no prosecutorial powers and without those powers he will always appear to be incompetent whereas in fact the man is indeed being frustrated by the big sharks he is trying to expose and prosecute. There are very many Kenyans who believe Ringera should be given more powers to prosecute rather than being shown the door.

Among the people who would like Ringera to lose his job is Rashmi Chamalal Kamani who is involved in the Anglo Lasing scandal including some wanting security related contracts. This man is so crafty that not even Ringera can trace him. All that Ringera can do is to offer an award of 100,000/- to anyone with useful information about Kamani. Whereas Kamani has been forced by Ringera to go underground it is not conceivable that the later is sitting on his laurel waiting for the Anglo Leasing scandal to vanish in thin air. Obviously Kamani is fighting back and he is fighting back using the most powerful men and women in and outside the Government and Parliament.

The next powerful man who can easily do Ringera in is Yagnesh Mohanlal Devani whom Ringera exposed as the man behind the Triton scandal involving more than seven billion shillings. The amount of money is so staggering that any of the beneficiaries exposed by Ringera would do anything to make sure the retired Judge is sent home as soon as possible. There is little doubt that Ringera has achieved more than the Fourth Estate in Kenya would like to acknowledge. Indeed rather than joining forces with those who would like to get rid of Ringera, journalists should support him as the one man always ready to help them do exposes that would put crooks in trouble.

Big money in the hands of crooks is not the only enemy fighting Ringera. Tribalism is also fighting him. Many tribal chiefs look at Ringera’s job as a feather in Gema people’s cap. Jobs in Kenya are so “tribalised” that it is almost a shame to hear even the most highly educated people talking of how many ministers their tribes have, or how many judges and how many heads of parastatals their tribes have. The larger the tribe the more top public official bosses it is supposed to have. Ringera’s job happens to be the most lucrative public office of the land.

Every tribe with anyone on the bench thinks it is time for their son or daughter to occupy that office. Ringera’s achievements notwithstanding, he will always be opposed by tribalists trying to get their own people at the KACC helm. The other reason Ringera is opposed by tribalists is the perception that he is there to protect his own people from facing the long arm of the law no matter how corrupt they are. Tribalists therefore want their own man or woman in that important office to be protected from the law as they continue engaging in corrupt activities.

Besides big money and tribalism, Ringera’s enemies include party rivalries. Ringera is perceived to be a PNU supporter regardless of his real political conviction. This makes him the dart board of the ODM missiles. No matter what he does, he will be always a victim of the most lethal attacks from ODM MPs. This trend will continue until the office is occupied by an ODM candidate. How beneficial that candidate will be to the party is not easy to imagine. But ODM is made up of Kenyan politicians who suffer from the same societal weakness as the rest of the country. Many of them are as corrupt as PNU leaders. Professional jealousy is yet another enemy facing Ringera. The only way he can fight that is to be even more competent. But first he has to keep his job.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Without Muthaura Raila is ruling Kenya

Francis Muthaura is an incapacitated man. As the Permanent Secretary in the Office of the President, the Secretary to the Cabinet and the Head of the Public Service, he is an extremely powerful man. But his health has let him down and he had to be flown to South Africa for an urgent heart surgery followed by an inevitable bed rest that has kept him away from his office for well over a month. Meanwhile Prime Minister Raila Odinga, apparently with the full backing of President Mwai Kibaki, has moved in full force to reduce Muthaura to his proper protocol size of a civil servant who is obviously quite subordinate to the Executive Prime Minister.

The move was celebrated by an astounding pomp and pageantry of public launching of the Strategic Plan for the Office of the Prime Minister 2009-2012. Spearheaded by no less a person that President Mwai Kibaki himself, the fanfare that marked the occasion was an elaborate endorsement by the Head of State of the of Raila’s undisputed Constitutional powers to guide Kenya through the most sensitive endeavors since the establishment of a coalition Government. The only person who would have challenged the constitutionality of the whole exercise is Francis Muthaura, who, very soon, is about to be relegated to the position similar to that of the Permanent Secretary in the Office of the Prime Minister, Dr. Mohammed Isahakia.

Though The Standard newspaper saw the whole exercise as a clever move by Kibaki to set political traps for Agwambo, Raila clearly explained during the launch of the plan, that he had directed his officials to draw up a Strategic Plan that gave Kenya the strongest possible opportunity to make sure serious reforms took place. He explained that it all started with his Constitutional mandate of coordination and supervision of the operations of Government. In view of what many people thought about Government, that was a huge task which he took “very seriously”. He further elaborated that the quality and efficiency of Government affected Kenya’s prosperity. It also influenced how the people cared for each other, and the services were received. According to the Prime Minister the citizens needed to know that Government was there for them when they needed it most. This was why it was so important that the public sector worked smoothly and effectively.

Could The Standard Newspaper by any chance be correct in suggesting that Kibaki wanted to make “political minced meat” out of Raila through the plan? Is it possible that all of a sudden the President is outmaneuvering Kenya’s most reputable political acrobat in living history? After all Raila has always outsmarted the Gema group led in the Raila-Kibaki Government by Muthaura. Agwambo himself does not agree and he does not mice his words. He openly told the country: “His Excellency the President and I share the conviction that Kenya can be a more prosperous, unified and secure nation. We stand together in wanting a government and public service that works well for Kenyans and that steers us towards the aspirations set out in Vision 2030. As the President and I stand together, the Nation must stand together -- in unity and harmony.”

Those words must have hurt a lot of people who have always benefited from the political differences between Kibaki and Raila. Since the President’s visit to Nyanza where he virtually endorsed Raila’s Presidency, the working relationship between the two leaders has drastically changed. Today Agwambo tells the country in the presence of the President that he will endeavour to make sure “that there will be enough food to eat, decent housing for our people, a sustainable environment, enough water to drink, energy, modern roads, railways and ports to grow our economy; and, above all eliminate corruption and insecurity which threaten to poison our society and to tarnish our reputation around the world.” Wow!

These are not words of a politician campaigning to get elected. There are words of a leader planning to develop his country at whatever cost. When Kibaki takes a backseat and let Raila run the show, it clearly indicate that the Nyanza Declaration to hand powers to Jaramogi’s son is practically being implemented now. Enemies of Raila-Kibaki plans will shout loudly to try and change the trend but the undercurrent is just too powerful for them. The Kibaki-Raila political plan is a tsunami which will sweep a lot of people into permanent political oblivion very soon.

The eight priorities listed by Kibaki and Raila as the Prime Minister’s Strategic Plan could be seen by the enemies of the two politicians as a trap to politically finish Agwambo. But any optimistic Kenyan would see them as necessary challenges for any development conscious leader. Priority Number One concerns challenge of Infrastructure which is intended to improve roads, rail links , ports and Information and Communication Technology, which according to Raila will result in better movements of food and other important goods, improving business opportunities and leading to economic growth. If Raila fulfills this goal he will be the most popular politician in East Africa because the beneficiaries will be the entire population of the region. The achievement of this goal cannot come about without the creation of many jobs which will again make Agwambo the most popular leader. Kibaki could not give Raila the responsibility to oversee the achievement of these goals with the aim of destroying him politically.

Priority Number Two concerns environment protection and climate change , which according to Raila is critical to safeguard natural resources , as is being done in Mau Forest, and other water towers, and because ecology brings the country prosperity through tourism. This is a challenge which has unfortunately been politicized by the Kalenjin Members of Parliament because very important people from that community, including the former President Daniel arap Moi, have illegally allocated themselves huge junks of land by destroying the forest. Now they don’t want to be told to get out of the forest even though the consequences can be seen by the entire country.

When , rather than if, Raila succeeds in moving the illegal settlers out of Mau he will make a few political enemies from among the Kalenjin tycoons, who illegally grabbed the forest and destroyed it. The rest of the country will consider Agwambo a true nationalist and the political mileage he will get from that is an assured two term seat at the State House. He is very aware of this fact and that is why he proudly says he is willing to pay “the political price” that will accompany the evacuation of the squatters at the Mau forest. When tourism prospers as a result of climatic change, Raila will always be remembered down at the Coast and among the Maasai communities.

Priority Number Three concerns upgrading slums and informal settlements which according to Raila will ensure that all Kenyans have decent housing. The Prime Minister happens to be the MP who represents people in the poorest habitats. They voted for him from their ramshackle homes. The people of Kibera can today see wonderful houses being built for them. As usual some corrupt characters are trying to use the legal system to try and stop the legitimate slum dwellers from moving into the new houses. Needless to say, that will be done over Agwambo’s dead body. Knowing that his political future depends on eliminating slums from Kenya, the Prime Minister will spare no efforts to grab the chance of upgrading slums in Kenya. His political enemies will see that challenge as a trap to finish him politically, but there is very little doubt that he will soon prove them wrong.

Priority Number Four concerns food security which Raila says will make sure that no Kenyan goes hungry for lack of planning of or distribution. According to the Prime Minister, Kenya has the knowledge and skills to prevent recurring maize crisis and the talent will be mobilized. Food, or lack of it, is always a political bomb and when it explodes heads always roll. No one knows that better that Raila, who recently was almost shouted down at Kibera when every word he uttered was drowned by shouts of “unga!” Naturally Raila knows hungry people can be angry mobs; but when he is given the responsibility of feeding the hungry he can easily turn the anger into very useful votes. Rather than trap him, Kibaki has given Raila all the votes he needs to become the next President after 2012, by giving him the responsibility to feed the hungry.

Priority Number Five concerns improving Governance and fighting corruption which, according to Raila, is the real power. Every time Raila has asked for more powers, he was dying to punish the corrupt in Kenya. Believing that the country’s resources belong to all Kenyans, Raila has been given by Kibaki the key to jailhouses in Kenya where he will pile up all the corrupt people who have so far been untouchable sacred cows. Raila knows that is the way he to win the love and the popularity of the underdogs of Kenya who are his voters. By giving him the responsibility to improve governance and end corruption in Kenya, Kibaki has actually handed Raila the key to State House.

Priority Number Six concerns the implementation of Kofi Annan’s Agenda Four which is Raila’s pet subject. It concerns Constitutional, institutional reforms, land reforms, poverty inequality and regional imbalance, unemployment, particularly among the youth, consolidation of national cohesion and unity, transparency, accountability and impunity. In other words, all the things Kenyans have been crying for. If Raila has the powers to get them for the people of Kenya what reason will they have to reject him in 2012?

Priority Number Seven concerns youth employment, popularly known as Kazi kwa Vijana Programme. According to Raila the youth of this country are the future. The success of Kazi kwa Vijana programme must be sustained and replicated. Anybody who can get jobs to the young people of Kenya is sure to get their votes in the next elections. Kibaki has just given Raila that chance.

Priority Number Eight concerns transformation of public service which according to Raila underpins the achievement of these priorities. He says the Public Service must be exemplary in supporting Government and in serving citizens. As he prepares to oversee the implementation of the eight goals he actually takes over all the responsibilities of Francis Muthaura; and to make matters worse, he does so with the full backing of Mwai Kibaki.

Raila admits that this is an ambitious plan. According to him it would take hard work and commitment to working together across the Government and with all of the stakeholders, to achieve success. “In all priority areas the Government will move forward as one, measuring and reporting progress in making Kenya and its citizens stronger and more prosperous,” he says. His enemies must be wondering how he will do it. The Cabinet has already cleared 250 billion shillings to build Kenya. This time Raila and Kibaki mean business. And they have the international backing!

Saturday, August 15, 2009

Gitobu’s Bill sure to go through

Gitobu Imanyara’s Bill to amend the Constitution is sure to go trough Parliament and become law. It is the end of the road for post election violence planners and financiers who turned Kenya into a cesspool of tribalism . This is so because ODM has announced it will back the cantankerous Imenti Central politician’s determined move to put the culprits behind bars. And ODM controls Parliament. Yet this time ODM is backed by a number of other parties in calling for the establishment of a powerful and independent, internationally recognized tribunal to try the mass murderers of post election violence. There is no way the butchers of Rift Valley can escape the law this time. When Martha Karua brought her two Bills – The Constitution of Kenya Amendment Act of 2009 and The Special Tribunal of Kenya Statute of 2009 – before the House, Imanyara led a battalion of backbenchers to reject them. His reasons at that time were very solid.

The Bills had serious loopholes. The loopholes were the fact that the Bill did not clearly say that the President had no powers to pardon a person found guilty by the tribunal. It did not say that the Attorney General had no powers to enter a nolle prosequi when certain important people are prosecuted. The Bill did not say that the Chief Justice could not transfer Judges who appear to be incorruptible in the serious cases. For these reasons Gitobu mobilized the parliamentarians to reject Martha’s Bills and instead called for the trials of the suspects to go to The Hague where neither the president, the Attorney General nor the Chief Justice could interfere with them. Gitobu wanted Luis Moreno-Ocampo to prosecute the suspected Kenyans who include high ranking Ministers in the Kibaki-Raila Government.

Though backed by the majority of the people of Kenya, Imanyara’s rejection of Martha’s Bill was seriously criticized by the international community led by Kofi Anna, who issued a statement saying he was disappointed that the Constitution of Kenya Amendment Bill 2009, which would have paved the way for the establishment of a Special Tribunal in Kenya, was defeated in Parliament. According to Annan this development was a major setback to the implementation of the recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence (CIPEV).

He believed it was also a blow to efforts aimed at ending the culture of impunity in Kenya, which was a central objective of the Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation process. The respected international diplomat said ending impunity was critical to addressing the root causes of the crisis that engulfed Kenya last year. Despite this strongly worded statement, Imanyara and his group in Parliament, backed by the ordinary wananchi, were still calling for Moreno-Ocampo to step in. The suspects were too powerful to be tried in Kenya without the interference of the President and the Attorney General plus the Chief Justice.

This was the stand of the country until the American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton visited the country and clearly explained to both the leaders and the wananchi the importance of conducting the trials locally. It was after this explanation that Gitobu Imanyara saw the light and drafted his Bill which among other things ensures that national immunities including the exercise of the prerogative of mercy shall not bar the Tribunal from exercising jurisdiction and further that the power of pardon shall not be exercised in respect of persons convicted for crimes under the Act. In particular the Imanyara’s Bill ensures investigative and prosecutorial autonomy for the Tribunal by excluding the Attorney-General’s powers under Section 26(3)-(8) of the Constitution. Under this section of the Constitution the Attorney General has powers to institute and undertake criminal proceedings against any person before any court, other than a court marshal, in respect of any offence alleged to have been committed or to take over and continue any such criminal proceedings that have been instituted or undertaken by another person or authority and to discontinue at any stage before judgement is delivered any such criminal proceedings instituted or undertaken by himself or another person or authority.

In her Bill Martha explained to MPs that she had brought the Bill before Parliament as the result of the deliberations of the National Accord and Reconciliation Committee formed after the political crisis triggered by the disputed elections held on 27th December, 2007. She said the Committee held its deliberations under the auspices of the Panel of Eminent African Personalities comprising the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, His Excellency Kofi Annan, His Excellency Benjamin Mkapa, former President of the United Republic of Tanzania and Her Excellency Madam Graca Machel. She elaborated to the MPs that her Bill sought to implement the recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry into Post Election Violence submitted to the President on 16th October, 2008 (“the Waki Report”). The Bill proposed to introduce a new section 3A to anchor the Statute establishing the Special Tribunal for Kenya in the Constitution in order to insulate the Tribunal against objections on grounds of unconstitutionality.

Imanyara’s Bill takes care of that by making similar proposals. It is actually the work of Imanyara himself, Marta Karua and Mutula Kilonzo which shows clearly the group of people who are likely to support it.Raila could not afford to tarnish his name as a person backing impunity. His statesmanship was under scrutiny.So he has now mobilized everyone to back Imanyara's Bill. These will be the ODM, the Narc Kenya and the PNU. Those likely to oppose the Bill will be Kalenjin MPs led by William Ruto who will see it as a move to push the Agriculture Minister over the cliff. The result of the passage of the Bill through Parliament will be a serious security threat by the Kalenjins who will threaten to rise up in arms in defence of their tribal leader. Last time they were in the same mood was just before the 2007 elections and they were quite prepared, some would say even trained, to attack the Kikuyu community whether or not ODM lost the election. This time their threat will be against the rest of the country since the Bill is likely to get the support of everyone apart from the Kalenjins and Uhuru Kenyatta and his very few friends in Parliament.

The second group in Parliament that is likely to oppose the Bill, it is quite easy to guess, is that of Uhuru Kenyatta and his friends. The reason is that Kenyatta is said to be one of the suspects on Moreno-Ocampo’s list.These are the same people exposed by the KNCHR who the people would like to see fired by Kibaki and Raila . Short of that the people would like them to resign while waiting for Moreno-Ocampo. The passage of the Bill will anger the Mungiki terror group who are said to be on his payroll, and were used to create havoc at Naivasha during the post election violence. The question is who will the Mungiki threaten this time when the Bill seeks to punish those who attacked the Kikuyu community after the 2007 elections.Though Raila has his own way of dealing with the Mungiki gangsters, this time they have been caught between the Devil and the deep blue sea and the manner in which they will react to the Imanyara Bill, remains to be seen. So far the Kibaki- Raila Government has not prosecuted any Mungiki members who took part in mass murders of Naivasha where they were to have “retaliated” to the Kalenjin – Luo attacks. Will they escape the sharp eye of the independent investigators set up by the Imanyara Bill? Time alone will tell.

United PNU weaker than divided ODM

PNU is trying to unite before the 2012 general elections. In the party, however, are bitter rivals, all interested in the seat at State House after the next general elections. The just ended Mombasa meeting showed a possible coalition between Kiraitu Murungi and Kalonzo Musyoka, who are likely to be PNU’s running mates. The unity between the two politicians will probably bring together all the Kambas and the Meru’s as a powerful voting bloc. The team is also likely to be joined by a section of rich Kiambu Kikuyus under the leadership of Beth Mugo and Njenga Karume.

The most conspicuous absentee at the Mombasa meeting was the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta who is said to be contemplating some form of unity with the Agriculture Minister William Ruto. Uhuru can be very unpredictable when forming coalitions with other leaders. In the last elections he tried to team up with Raila without much success. Behind Uhuru are most of the young Kikuyu voters from Kiambu who are said to be Mungiki followers. If , by some miracles, Uhuru manages to bring Ruto and his Nandi and Kipsigis supporters into this camp, the problem will be how to divide posts if , in the unlikely event , they form the government after the 2012 elections.

If they can agree to make Kalonzo their Presidential candidate with Kiraitu as his running mate and Ruto as the Prime Minister, this will be a very strong team for Raila to beat. The team will have Uhuru Kenyatta to satisfy and it may be quite likely that the first President’s son may accept to hold the same position of deputy Prime Minister as he does today. To try and get some votes from the Coast, the team may consider Chirau Ali Mwakwere as the second Deputy Prime Minister. This shaky arrangement is likely to be opposed by George Saiototi, whose presidential ambitions have never been quite removed from his head. If all these leaders can agree to back Kalonzo in 2012 then Raila will have quite a strong team to fight to succeed Kibaki as the country’s next President.

Despite the threat by William Ruto to pullout all the Kalenjins from ODM, the party is still strong throughout the country and remains in the forefront as the sole institution to form the next government without any coalition. For that to happen, however, Raila will not only have to keep a very close relationship with Musalia Mudavadi, who will most likely be his running mate, but he will also have to cajole Martha Karua and her Narc Kenya to accept the position of the next Prime Minister with Danson Mungatana as the next Deputy Prime Minister and a Minister in charge of Youth Employment.

As the most popular politician in the country Raila is likely to disband tribal grouping in political parties; but that step can only be taken when he is already the President of the country with a lot of Executive powers after 2012. For the time being, he will have to join the bandwagon of tribal political leadership of indispensable leaders in his new ODM after the departure of William Ruto, who is most likely going out of the party with rich Kalenjins from his own Nandi tribe and highly enlightened Kipsigis tycoons. The rest of the Kalenjin communities, particularly the Elgeyos, the Endorois, the Marakwet, the Pokots, the Saboat, the Terik and the Tugens, who have all not benefited much from Ruto’s present tribal leadership, are likely to remain in the ODM. When he pulls out of the ODM, Ruto cannot possibly move with all the three million voters that the Kalenjin ethnic group controls.

According to the Wikipedia encyclopedia, most of these people are pastoralists and very much like Raila’s own Luo people are said to have migrated to their present location from Sudan more than 2,000 years ago. If Kalonzo Musyoka’s dream of uniting PNU comes true the country is likely to end up with a fight between two , rather than three , political parties . It so happens that his own ODMK did not particularly differ constitutionally with Raila’s ODM. The two parties’ manifestos were also more or less the same as the PNU manifesto.

If tribal political parties have to end in Kenya then Political Parties Act has to be amended to prohibit political parties from copying constitutions of other political parties. The law should make sure that the country’s two major political parties actually stand for distinctly different ideologies from which the people can choose. It is common knowledge that the PNU stands for a unitary State of Presidential system of Government while ODM stands for Majimbo federal government structured in a Parliamentary system. No matter what type of the Constitution Nzamba Kitonga drafts the final decision about whether Kenya will be a federal State or will have a unitary Government will be determined by the people through a referendum.

After that the country will still have to choose between PNU, which will probably be fighting for a strong president and a weak Prime Minister and ODM, which has always fought for a strong Prime Minister and a figurehead President. Whereas the two parties will have to abide by the new Constitution, they have to come up with very different philosophies which don’t confuse the electorate.

According to Section 12 (1) of the Political Parties Act, parties are formed in Kenya to further purposes which are not contrary to the Constitution or any written law. Subsection Two says any citizen of Kenya who has attained the age of 18 years, subject to the provisions of this Act, has the right to form a political party. I believe this section needs to be amended to prohibit people from forming political parties that are ideologically similar. The duplication of political parties that are more or less the same ideologically has encouraged the formation of many tribal political parties that are similar except for their leadership.

Such political parties should be discouraged in Kenya. Steps to arrive at a situation where the voters of Kenya will stop thinking it terms of their tribe should be taken now that the leaders are thinking of electoral reforms. As far as possible the 2012 elections should be organized in such a manner as to have leaders who seek voter from the people based on the differences in political philosophies rather than differences in tribal or clannish origins. That however is building castles in the air, which is the wishful thinking of many Kenyan idealists.
The truth of the matter is, very sadly, that the 2012 election will be as tribal as most Kenyan elections. This will mean that the Kambas, Merus, Nandis, Kipsigis and rich Kiambu Kikuyus will vote for the PNU and the rest of the country will vote for Raila Odinga’s ODM which will form the next Government in this country.