At long last, Kenya has plunged into a cesspool of banana republics so ubiquitous in Africa that the continent today seems to deserve the title “Dark Continent” without sounding as derogatory as it used to. Like most African countries, Kenya can no longer pride itself of being an island of peace in a sea of turmoil. Neither can it claim to be capable of conducting a transparent, free and fair election. Very much like the majority of African countries, it has proved to be quite accomplished in staging bloody conflicts that come close to ethnic cleansing. Today it is quite clear that, similar to the majority of African countries, Kenya has such ambitious political leaders who are quite willing to sacrifice lives of their own people for the sake of political power.
The country is torn between ODM and PNU followers ready to die for their political parties without caring much about the fact that none of the two are more than personal properties of Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki. The two “political parties” have never held any elections and can hardly claim to be democratic. They both came into existence just before elections as cheap vehicles to State House. PNU is a party that basically brings together Kikuyus, Embus and Merus from around Mount Kenya whereas ODM brings together Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas for the sole purpose of removing Kikuyus from power.
Soon after Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the hotly contested Presidential elections, the tribes that back ODM literally started slaughtering the tribes that belong to the PNU. Paradoxically the clashes mainly took place in the slums of the city of Nairobi, Kisumu, Mombasa, Eldoret and Kericho. Peasants who were settled in the Rift Valley from Central Province were also targeted and finally reduced to internally displaced people. In areas of the city and other towns where middleclass Kenyans of all ethnic groups live harmoniously, there were hardly any disturbances at all. To these Kenyans it did not matter much whether Raila or Kibaki became the president of the country though there exits a latent xenophobic nationalism among each one of them.
No one knows what would have happened if Raila had been declared the winner. The Kikuyus do not appear to have been prepared for any clashes in that eventuality though ODM has claimed those doing the slaughtering in the city slums are members of the outlawed Mugiki, which is a Kikuyu terror gang. An agreement between leaders of tribes in the ODM had specifically indicated that Musalia Mudavadi, the Luhya leader, would have been the Vice President and William Ruto, the Kalenjin leader, would have been the Prime Minister. With the three holding the highest positions in the Government many top jobs within the Government would have gone to members of their tribes. Kibaki’s victory is therefore seen as a missed opportunity to get top jobs by the Luos, Kalenjins and Luhyas, hence the revolt in the slums where feelings cannot be submerged.
Mwai Kibaki’s efforts to form a Government of National Unity (GNU) is seen by ODM as the continuation of status quo where the majority of most important positions in the Government are held by members of Kikuyu , Embu or Meru. A GNU would still give Kibaki a lot of powers constitutionally. He would still be in a position to hire, fire, promote and demote. Due to international pressure ODM seems to be getting closer to agreeing to the formation of a coalition government that would give them powers to select any position in Kibaki’s government.
A coalition government would also give ODM the right to walk out at any time rendering Kibaki a political cripple. In parliament PNU is already a cripple. It has only 43 out of 207 seats. As a Government it needs the cooperation of Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-K which has 16 seats. In a GNU Musyoka could easily become a Vice President and the Leader of Government Business in Parliament. Even then PNU would still desperately need the support of Kanu which has 14 seats, which mean another important position for Uhuru Kenyatta, the party’s leader. Safina, which has five seats, is allowed to nominate one MP who most likely will be Paul Muite, the party chairman.
If Kibaki does not appoint Muite a Minister, the Safina leader’s rebellious tendencies are likely to benefit ODM more than PNU in Parliament. All other parliamentary parties – Nark-K (with four MPs), Narc (with three MPs), Ford-P (with three MPs), CCP (with two MPs), PICK (with two MPs), New Ford-K (with two MPs), DP (with two MPs), Sisi kwa Sisi (with two MPs) and PPK, Mazingira, Kenda, UDM, Kaddu, Ford-K, PDP, NLP, Kadu-A, Ford-A ( with an MP each) – will demand to be in the Cabinet to keep the Government alive.
If ODM does not join the Government, Kibaki’s second term will have the weakest regime in the recent political history of Kenya. A vote of no confidence could force the country to have another election in an extremely short time. Whether the country can afford or is ready for such an election is anyone’s guess. Besides anything else, there will be a need to establish a credible electoral commission to organize such an election. The current commission’s chairman Samuel Kivuitu will have to be replaced as he no longer commands the countrywide respect he used to before he declared Kibaki the winner.
If, on the other hand, ODM agrees to either join Kibaki’s government of national unity or form a coalition one with him, it will still be an extremely unstable administration made up of bitter enemies out to politically eliminate one another. Ethnicity will be rampant and xenophobia widespread. So what are the chances of Majimboism? ODM will say that that is obviously the answer and PNU will say we have just tasted the dangers of Majimboism. Nothing short of genuine dialogue devoid of ethnic nationalism can save Kenya from the terrible pit it happens to be in at the moment.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Monday, October 29, 2007
Majimboism is a Time Bomb!
Majimboism is a time bomb about to explode. When it does, heads will role and someone is bound to lose the race to State House. To Mwai Kibaki and former President Daniel arap Moi, Majimboism is a recipe for tribal clashes that may even snowball into something more serious. They give examples of Rwanda and Biafra ethnic wars which literally saw rivers of blood flowing due to xenophobic bigotry.
To Raila Odinga and supporters of ODM, Majimboism is the answer to most of the economic problems caused by the concentration of political powers into few hands thus creating a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots. Leaders of ODM-K don’t seem to have a common stand on Majimboism. Whereas the party’s presidential candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, has been talking in favour of the policy, his spokesman and the party Secretary General, Mutula Kilonzo, has described it as a snake pit.
Whether the voters accept or reject Majimboism, the result will be a painful rejection of a major party’s policy. If it is rejected the bomb will explode on ODM and if it is accepted, PNU will sink with its policy of unitary and powerful central government. Whatever the case may be, the three major parties will have to explain in an unambiguous and quite convincing language, the stand they take on Majimboism in the manifestos they have yet to launch. The fact that the country is divided between the three political parties along regional lines, long before any manifesto has been launched, means ethnicity will play a major role in determining whether or not to accept Majimboism.
Though they will not publicly accept it, almost all the political parties in Kenya are made up of powerful tribal leaders who command immense despotic powers in the areas of their origin. Indeed the genesis of ODM was an open tribal meeting between Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin elders representing Raila Odinga , Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto who agreed to cooperate in order to snatch political power from the people from Mount Kenya region. The idea of Majimboism is popularized by the notion that it will encourage the distribution of the national cake more equitably throughout the country, as opposed to the perception that the present day government financially benefits a small Mount Kenya group of tycoons close to Mwai Kibaki, more than it benefits the people outside the Central Province.
When thinking of economic benefits that can come out of Majimboism, as it is preached by the ODM, many Kenyans support the policy; but when they think of tribal clashes that could possibly originate from the same policy, they don’t want to touch it with a barge pole. The success or failure of Majimboism as a policy in Kenya will depend entirely on the manner in which its two conflicting interpretations are delivered to the people. So far all sorts of propaganda are spread by both camps and the powerful Catholic Church has openly decided to condemn it.
Among the most lethal tales told about Majimboism is that it will give the current provinces so much autonomy that some of them, like the North Eastern Province, may opt to introduce Islamic Sheria Law as soon as the new policy is introduced. The very thought of the introduction of Sheria Law in Kenya is bound to make the majority of Kenyans automatically reject Majimboism.
While backing the policy, Raila Odinga claims it is among the Bomas constitutional proposals rejected by the Kibaki regime, but supported by the majority of the people of Kenya. That argument is likely to bring into close examination the Bomas constitutional proposals and make them an election issue to the advantage of ODM, which hopes to get the 2005 Orange referendum crowd on its side. Unfortunately the powerful Churches, which influenced that crowd two years ago, this time, seem to be opposed to Majimboism and they are preaching against it from the pulpit.
The other story told against Majimboism is that its implementation will create xenophobic feeling which will make Kenyans call other Kenyans “foreigners” simply because they come from a different part of the country. Indeed that kind of feeling has caused serious tribal clashes in the Rift Valley and at the Coast provinces. The memory of those two clashes is bound to harbour very negative feelings about Majimboism among Kenyans. Today there are many Kenyans who were born and bred outside the regions of their ancestors, and if all of a sudden they were asked to go back home; only trouble could be the outcome of that eventuality.
In favour of Majimboism are stories of economic prosperity that will be spread across the country benefiting all citizens. Politicians backing Majimboism talk of the creation of new jobs throughout the country because of devolution of political and economic powers. They give many examples of countries where federalism has worked successfully such as India and United States. Supporters of Majimboism normally presuppose that the country unanimously accepted the Bomas constitutional proposals. They hardly ever talk about constitutional huddles to be cleared before such a constitution is introduced in the country. To them the Bomas constitution has been accepted by the people and it will be implemented as soon as Kibaki is out of power.
As the country becomes preoccupied with the debate on Majimboism another highly sensitive election issue seems o have been temporarily forgotten. And that is the inevitable nomination for both parliamentary and local government candidates. So far candidates have shown interest in the three major political parties – ODM, ODM-K and PNU. Of the three PNU seems to have a much bigger problem because within it are a number of political parties such as Shirikisho and New Ford-Kenya that seem to be rather reluctant to participate in a joint nomination process.
With rivalry within PNU threatening to tear the party into pieces before it has even crystallized, Mwai Kibaki seems to be sailing in very troubles waters. That, however, does not mean that all is well in the two ODM parties. They too have to face primary elections in the form of nomination of parliamentary and civic candidates. They have to come up with acceptable manifestos that simplify the policy of Majimboism to the voters. Whatever happens, this year’s general elections promises to be a battle of giants which could be quite bloody. And the war will be fought in the battlefields of tribalism and Majimboism.
To Raila Odinga and supporters of ODM, Majimboism is the answer to most of the economic problems caused by the concentration of political powers into few hands thus creating a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots. Leaders of ODM-K don’t seem to have a common stand on Majimboism. Whereas the party’s presidential candidate, Kalonzo Musyoka, has been talking in favour of the policy, his spokesman and the party Secretary General, Mutula Kilonzo, has described it as a snake pit.
Whether the voters accept or reject Majimboism, the result will be a painful rejection of a major party’s policy. If it is rejected the bomb will explode on ODM and if it is accepted, PNU will sink with its policy of unitary and powerful central government. Whatever the case may be, the three major parties will have to explain in an unambiguous and quite convincing language, the stand they take on Majimboism in the manifestos they have yet to launch. The fact that the country is divided between the three political parties along regional lines, long before any manifesto has been launched, means ethnicity will play a major role in determining whether or not to accept Majimboism.
Though they will not publicly accept it, almost all the political parties in Kenya are made up of powerful tribal leaders who command immense despotic powers in the areas of their origin. Indeed the genesis of ODM was an open tribal meeting between Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin elders representing Raila Odinga , Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto who agreed to cooperate in order to snatch political power from the people from Mount Kenya region. The idea of Majimboism is popularized by the notion that it will encourage the distribution of the national cake more equitably throughout the country, as opposed to the perception that the present day government financially benefits a small Mount Kenya group of tycoons close to Mwai Kibaki, more than it benefits the people outside the Central Province.
When thinking of economic benefits that can come out of Majimboism, as it is preached by the ODM, many Kenyans support the policy; but when they think of tribal clashes that could possibly originate from the same policy, they don’t want to touch it with a barge pole. The success or failure of Majimboism as a policy in Kenya will depend entirely on the manner in which its two conflicting interpretations are delivered to the people. So far all sorts of propaganda are spread by both camps and the powerful Catholic Church has openly decided to condemn it.
Among the most lethal tales told about Majimboism is that it will give the current provinces so much autonomy that some of them, like the North Eastern Province, may opt to introduce Islamic Sheria Law as soon as the new policy is introduced. The very thought of the introduction of Sheria Law in Kenya is bound to make the majority of Kenyans automatically reject Majimboism.
While backing the policy, Raila Odinga claims it is among the Bomas constitutional proposals rejected by the Kibaki regime, but supported by the majority of the people of Kenya. That argument is likely to bring into close examination the Bomas constitutional proposals and make them an election issue to the advantage of ODM, which hopes to get the 2005 Orange referendum crowd on its side. Unfortunately the powerful Churches, which influenced that crowd two years ago, this time, seem to be opposed to Majimboism and they are preaching against it from the pulpit.
The other story told against Majimboism is that its implementation will create xenophobic feeling which will make Kenyans call other Kenyans “foreigners” simply because they come from a different part of the country. Indeed that kind of feeling has caused serious tribal clashes in the Rift Valley and at the Coast provinces. The memory of those two clashes is bound to harbour very negative feelings about Majimboism among Kenyans. Today there are many Kenyans who were born and bred outside the regions of their ancestors, and if all of a sudden they were asked to go back home; only trouble could be the outcome of that eventuality.
In favour of Majimboism are stories of economic prosperity that will be spread across the country benefiting all citizens. Politicians backing Majimboism talk of the creation of new jobs throughout the country because of devolution of political and economic powers. They give many examples of countries where federalism has worked successfully such as India and United States. Supporters of Majimboism normally presuppose that the country unanimously accepted the Bomas constitutional proposals. They hardly ever talk about constitutional huddles to be cleared before such a constitution is introduced in the country. To them the Bomas constitution has been accepted by the people and it will be implemented as soon as Kibaki is out of power.
As the country becomes preoccupied with the debate on Majimboism another highly sensitive election issue seems o have been temporarily forgotten. And that is the inevitable nomination for both parliamentary and local government candidates. So far candidates have shown interest in the three major political parties – ODM, ODM-K and PNU. Of the three PNU seems to have a much bigger problem because within it are a number of political parties such as Shirikisho and New Ford-Kenya that seem to be rather reluctant to participate in a joint nomination process.
With rivalry within PNU threatening to tear the party into pieces before it has even crystallized, Mwai Kibaki seems to be sailing in very troubles waters. That, however, does not mean that all is well in the two ODM parties. They too have to face primary elections in the form of nomination of parliamentary and civic candidates. They have to come up with acceptable manifestos that simplify the policy of Majimboism to the voters. Whatever happens, this year’s general elections promises to be a battle of giants which could be quite bloody. And the war will be fought in the battlefields of tribalism and Majimboism.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
PNU: A Formidable One-Man Party
The launching of the Party of National Unity as a platform to provide President Mwai Kibaki with a ticket to contest the next presidential elections seems to be a very well calculated scheme to bring together five political parties that are sure to win parliamentary seats in specific areas where the two ODMs will find it difficult to penetrate. These areas are a huge part of the Rift Valley, the entire Central Province, the Miji Kenda, Taita and Taveta areas of the Coast Province, large areas of Eastern Province, a section Western Province and a number of constituencies in the North Eastern Province where Kanu is still popular.
The decision is also likely to minimize the Kikuyu stigma that has been attached to almost every political party formed by Kibaki and his friends. When he formed the Democratic Party before the first multi-party elections 1992 his opponents accused him of establishing a tribal party for the people of the Mount Kenya region. The stigma was inherited by Nark Kenya which is still very popular in the region. Now it is Kibaki’s turn to accuse the two ODMs of being tribal political parties. Whereas ODM-K is mainly a party of the Kamba people, ODM too can be said to be a party of tribal leaders. It was in fact an outcome of a joint endeavour by tribal elders from Luo, Kalenjin and Luhya ethnic groups. Former President Daniel arap Moi openly says he supports Kibaki mainly because ha cannot, after leading this nation for 24 years, back any tribal political institution.
Kibaki is likely to be the only candidate that will seek election through the PNU ticket baked by Kanu, Ford Kenya, Ford People, Shirikisho and Narc-Kenya which will all sponsor candidates for both parliamentary and local government elections. Long before official campaigning has started the five parties seem to have established specific areas of the country where they are popular and likely to win. Though there are a lot of parties claiming to back Mwai Kibaki’s reelection, the five seem to have been carefully selected because of their popularity in their regions.
The clever move is also bound to keep Mwai Kibaki away from the internal wangles that are likely to erupt during the civic and parliamentary nominations in all the political parties including ODM and ODM-K. If the nominations will be free and fair, a number of the incumbent MPs will be shown the door by the voters and will never get their previous parties’ tickets that won them parliamentary and civic seats. Indeed Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka will be better off in their campaigns without the current MPs whom the people despise, disrespect and even loathe.
The choice by Mwai Kibaki of the five parties to sponsor him, rather than well over a dozen of them, will serve to reduce the chaos that was beginning to take shape in the scramble for the support for the President. Indeed a number of the parties that are singing the “Kibaki Tena” song do not exist beyond the briefcases in which their registration certificates are kept.
Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu has the majority of seats in the opposition benches and, with the support of retired President Daniel arap Moi, the party is still capable of winning a number of seats in the Rift Valley and North Eastern provinces; Simion Nyachae’s Ford People , is bound to win some seats in the Kisii area; Musikari Kombo’s Ford Kenya , is sure to win some seats in the Western Province ; Ali Makwere’s Shirikisho Party, which is proving to be very popular in the Coast, may win the majority of seats in that province and Raphael Tuju’s Nark Kenya is bound to win a number of seats in both the Central Province and a number of urban areas.
With a reduced number of presidential candidates and an increased number of political parties many voters will have quite a headache in choosing the next MP ; but as far as presidential candidates are concerned many Kenyans have already made up their minds. Today it is extremely difficult to criticize some of the presidential candidates in certain parts of the country as the people have already made their choice. But for parliamentary seats parties will do as well as they conduct their nominations in the next general elections. Those that handpick their candidates, as has been the case in the past, may live to regret it this time as the people are getting wiser and more educated about their political rights.
Of all the Kibaki supporters none has caused more damage to Raila Odinga’s ODM than Uhuru Kenyatta who has moved with the larger part of the party used by his father, Jomo Kenyatta, to fight for Kenya’s independence. He has been accused of abdicating his position as the leader of the Opposition in Parliament and thus betraying the anti Kibaki wave in the country; but Uhuru support for the President’s candidature does not in any manner indicate that he intends to quit the leadership of the Opposition in Parliament. As far as he is concerned he has taken the controversial step only to make his party be in the next Government to be formed by Kibaki after the elections, but not the current one.
In an effort to disintegrate PNU, ODM leaders have accused Uhuru of backing Kibaki only because he hopes to succeed him in 2012 when the Constitution will demand the PNU leader to step down. So far a number of leaders including George Saitoti, Martha Karua, George Saitoti and Kiraitu Murungi have declared their interest to succeed Kibaki and if Uhuru appears like the anointed son then the others are supposed to be annoyed with Kibaki. This propaganda however is not likely to be taken seriously by anyone since all political parties, including Kanu, will be interested in occupying State House after Kibaki.
As Kibaki, Raila and Kalonzo prepare for the final battle, one prominent politician who appears to have a lot of difficulties to determine who to support is Charity Ngilu, who is in fact, torn between the three contestants. Whereas she serves in Kibaki’s Cabinet her heart is with Raila Odinga while her constituents demand that she either supports Kalonzo or face the wrath of the voters. If she gets a strong opponent who obtains Kalonzo’s backing she may very well lose her elected seat in Parliament.
All in all, the PNU appears to have been formed after all the possible consequences and all the potential harmful pitfalls likely to pull it apart have been examined and avoided. It is a formidable party likely to pave the way back to State House for Mwai Kibaki.
The decision is also likely to minimize the Kikuyu stigma that has been attached to almost every political party formed by Kibaki and his friends. When he formed the Democratic Party before the first multi-party elections 1992 his opponents accused him of establishing a tribal party for the people of the Mount Kenya region. The stigma was inherited by Nark Kenya which is still very popular in the region. Now it is Kibaki’s turn to accuse the two ODMs of being tribal political parties. Whereas ODM-K is mainly a party of the Kamba people, ODM too can be said to be a party of tribal leaders. It was in fact an outcome of a joint endeavour by tribal elders from Luo, Kalenjin and Luhya ethnic groups. Former President Daniel arap Moi openly says he supports Kibaki mainly because ha cannot, after leading this nation for 24 years, back any tribal political institution.
Kibaki is likely to be the only candidate that will seek election through the PNU ticket baked by Kanu, Ford Kenya, Ford People, Shirikisho and Narc-Kenya which will all sponsor candidates for both parliamentary and local government elections. Long before official campaigning has started the five parties seem to have established specific areas of the country where they are popular and likely to win. Though there are a lot of parties claiming to back Mwai Kibaki’s reelection, the five seem to have been carefully selected because of their popularity in their regions.
The clever move is also bound to keep Mwai Kibaki away from the internal wangles that are likely to erupt during the civic and parliamentary nominations in all the political parties including ODM and ODM-K. If the nominations will be free and fair, a number of the incumbent MPs will be shown the door by the voters and will never get their previous parties’ tickets that won them parliamentary and civic seats. Indeed Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka will be better off in their campaigns without the current MPs whom the people despise, disrespect and even loathe.
The choice by Mwai Kibaki of the five parties to sponsor him, rather than well over a dozen of them, will serve to reduce the chaos that was beginning to take shape in the scramble for the support for the President. Indeed a number of the parties that are singing the “Kibaki Tena” song do not exist beyond the briefcases in which their registration certificates are kept.
Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu has the majority of seats in the opposition benches and, with the support of retired President Daniel arap Moi, the party is still capable of winning a number of seats in the Rift Valley and North Eastern provinces; Simion Nyachae’s Ford People , is bound to win some seats in the Kisii area; Musikari Kombo’s Ford Kenya , is sure to win some seats in the Western Province ; Ali Makwere’s Shirikisho Party, which is proving to be very popular in the Coast, may win the majority of seats in that province and Raphael Tuju’s Nark Kenya is bound to win a number of seats in both the Central Province and a number of urban areas.
With a reduced number of presidential candidates and an increased number of political parties many voters will have quite a headache in choosing the next MP ; but as far as presidential candidates are concerned many Kenyans have already made up their minds. Today it is extremely difficult to criticize some of the presidential candidates in certain parts of the country as the people have already made their choice. But for parliamentary seats parties will do as well as they conduct their nominations in the next general elections. Those that handpick their candidates, as has been the case in the past, may live to regret it this time as the people are getting wiser and more educated about their political rights.
Of all the Kibaki supporters none has caused more damage to Raila Odinga’s ODM than Uhuru Kenyatta who has moved with the larger part of the party used by his father, Jomo Kenyatta, to fight for Kenya’s independence. He has been accused of abdicating his position as the leader of the Opposition in Parliament and thus betraying the anti Kibaki wave in the country; but Uhuru support for the President’s candidature does not in any manner indicate that he intends to quit the leadership of the Opposition in Parliament. As far as he is concerned he has taken the controversial step only to make his party be in the next Government to be formed by Kibaki after the elections, but not the current one.
In an effort to disintegrate PNU, ODM leaders have accused Uhuru of backing Kibaki only because he hopes to succeed him in 2012 when the Constitution will demand the PNU leader to step down. So far a number of leaders including George Saitoti, Martha Karua, George Saitoti and Kiraitu Murungi have declared their interest to succeed Kibaki and if Uhuru appears like the anointed son then the others are supposed to be annoyed with Kibaki. This propaganda however is not likely to be taken seriously by anyone since all political parties, including Kanu, will be interested in occupying State House after Kibaki.
As Kibaki, Raila and Kalonzo prepare for the final battle, one prominent politician who appears to have a lot of difficulties to determine who to support is Charity Ngilu, who is in fact, torn between the three contestants. Whereas she serves in Kibaki’s Cabinet her heart is with Raila Odinga while her constituents demand that she either supports Kalonzo or face the wrath of the voters. If she gets a strong opponent who obtains Kalonzo’s backing she may very well lose her elected seat in Parliament.
All in all, the PNU appears to have been formed after all the possible consequences and all the potential harmful pitfalls likely to pull it apart have been examined and avoided. It is a formidable party likely to pave the way back to State House for Mwai Kibaki.
Monday, September 3, 2007
The error of ignoring Moi
Retired President Daniel Arap Moi’s open support for Mwai Kibaki is a serious blow to both ODM’s Raila Odinga and ODM-K’s Kalonzo Musyoka. The move is most certainly likely to win Kibaki a huge pile of Kalenjin votes which he desperately needs. To the Tugens, Elgeyos, Marakwet and Saboats, Moi is still a powerful leader. He is also an extremely respected elder of the African Inland Church which has a huge following in the Rift Valley. All these groups will obediently comply with Mio’s directive to vote for Kibaki. Raila is likely to get the Nandi and Kipsigis votes which he will still have to share with Kalonzo.
As a consummate politician of the old school party discipline which helped him stay in power for 24 years, Moi is bound to be among the first to smell a rat in the manner in which both ODMs’ presidential nominations were organized. The most conspicuous abnormality of the two parties was the fact that they had no manifestos to talk about. Instead they had individual leaders’ policies which they have marketed on personal basis. Each party has leaders who claim to be united yet they openly differ ideologically. These abnormalities will most likely be trumpeted by Moi when he starts campaigning for Kibaki.
Moi’s suspicion was corroborated by the ODM-K's presidential nominations on August 31st and that of ODM on September 1st when the two parties conducted nominations without elected national officials holding any office. Whereas ODM-K could claim its delegates were made up of party elected branch officials, ODM delegates were merely handpicked and those suspected of not agrees with the party owner were simply locked out of the entire exercise. Yet the media gave the two incidents maximum publicity with minimum criticism.
When Moi hits the road to start real active campaigning for Mwai Kibaki, he is likely to point these anomalies out in a language the people will understand . He will therefore easily prove that the two parties are indeed personal properties of the candidates who won the nominations. The highly publicized presidential nomination exercises were no more than circuses which will give Moi a lot of ammunition to tear them into pieces. During the so called secret balloting at Kasarani the leaders kept talking about the high standard of democratic transparency in the two parties which was mysteriously achieved without national elections in both parties and in the case of ODM without even a constitutionally accepted list of members or delegates.
The two exercises must have had an arm and a leg as their price tags yet no one knows who actually footed the bills though it is not heard to imagine. The more spectacular the show was, the more expensive it must have become and Moi will have a field day in describing how a handful of sycophants were transported to Nairobi to endorse predetermined leaders in the name of nomination through secret ballot. This is a road Moi has traveled for more than two decades and will be quick to identify those who try to emulate him .
To a keen observer of the events of the two ODM presidential nominations, serious attempts were made to bring about the 2005 referendum euphoria and change it into a mob force against Mwai Kibaki. The only problem is the fact that the two groups are this time divided into bitter enemies that can only benefit Kibaki’s side. Besides, this time there are no powerful church groups which helped to swell the numbers of the referendum Orange group which, incidentally, was made even more powerful by Moi’s backing .
Being the shrewd politician he is, Moi is likely to use his Luhya friends to magnify the “loss” of the community at the ODM nomination and challenge the Raila’s offer of the number two position to Musalia Mudavadi. Like it has been suggested before, Moi will urge his Luhya loyalists to reject the offer which the Luhyas already have in Moody Awori. Right from the beginning Mudavadi did not seem very eager to oppose Raila and he actually participated in the nomination in the most lackadaisical manner – a tactic that ended up making Raila reap maximum benefit; but which may cause Mudavadi a very heavy damage back home in Western Province.
As the architect of the mlolongo voting system and an excellent manipulator of both the Electoral Commission and the Provincial Administration during elections, Moi will be an extremely useful advisor to Mwai Kibaki this time. Executive powers will most certainly be used by Kibaki to create huddles for both Raila and Kalonzo when the final race for the Presidency reaches its final stages. Samuel Kivuitu’s term of office as the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, for example, comes to an end in December, just before Kenyans go to the polls and the role Moi will play in advising Kibaki on how to fill the post will be sure to pose a great danger to free and fair elections.
So far Raila has survived by the use of clever tactics which were perfected by Moi when he was in office. These include the manipulation of the mass media and maximum use of ethnic loyalty which Kibaki will now learn to make use of from the master tactician which Moi happens to be. It was therefore not for nothing that a lot of Opposition politicians cried foul when Moi made his announcement to back Kibaki.
During the referendum, areas that were dominated by either banana or orange returned ridiculous 100 per cent support for whatever stand they took, which means ballot boxes somehow were filled up by returning officers. Unless some very drastic steps are taken in the proper organization of the electoral process during the December polling, a similar tactic is bound to be repeated and when that happens Moi will be handy to advice Kibaki on what steps to take to remain in power.
As Musalia Mudavadi warned at Kasarani, this time there are 14 million registered voters and in a situation like that the Opposition has to work extra hard to make sure something unbecoming does not take place in the remote areas. With Moi sitting next to Kibaki during these elections it would be foolhardy to write off the former President’s influence in having an effect on the results.
As a consummate politician of the old school party discipline which helped him stay in power for 24 years, Moi is bound to be among the first to smell a rat in the manner in which both ODMs’ presidential nominations were organized. The most conspicuous abnormality of the two parties was the fact that they had no manifestos to talk about. Instead they had individual leaders’ policies which they have marketed on personal basis. Each party has leaders who claim to be united yet they openly differ ideologically. These abnormalities will most likely be trumpeted by Moi when he starts campaigning for Kibaki.
Moi’s suspicion was corroborated by the ODM-K's presidential nominations on August 31st and that of ODM on September 1st when the two parties conducted nominations without elected national officials holding any office. Whereas ODM-K could claim its delegates were made up of party elected branch officials, ODM delegates were merely handpicked and those suspected of not agrees with the party owner were simply locked out of the entire exercise. Yet the media gave the two incidents maximum publicity with minimum criticism.
When Moi hits the road to start real active campaigning for Mwai Kibaki, he is likely to point these anomalies out in a language the people will understand . He will therefore easily prove that the two parties are indeed personal properties of the candidates who won the nominations. The highly publicized presidential nomination exercises were no more than circuses which will give Moi a lot of ammunition to tear them into pieces. During the so called secret balloting at Kasarani the leaders kept talking about the high standard of democratic transparency in the two parties which was mysteriously achieved without national elections in both parties and in the case of ODM without even a constitutionally accepted list of members or delegates.
The two exercises must have had an arm and a leg as their price tags yet no one knows who actually footed the bills though it is not heard to imagine. The more spectacular the show was, the more expensive it must have become and Moi will have a field day in describing how a handful of sycophants were transported to Nairobi to endorse predetermined leaders in the name of nomination through secret ballot. This is a road Moi has traveled for more than two decades and will be quick to identify those who try to emulate him .
To a keen observer of the events of the two ODM presidential nominations, serious attempts were made to bring about the 2005 referendum euphoria and change it into a mob force against Mwai Kibaki. The only problem is the fact that the two groups are this time divided into bitter enemies that can only benefit Kibaki’s side. Besides, this time there are no powerful church groups which helped to swell the numbers of the referendum Orange group which, incidentally, was made even more powerful by Moi’s backing .
Being the shrewd politician he is, Moi is likely to use his Luhya friends to magnify the “loss” of the community at the ODM nomination and challenge the Raila’s offer of the number two position to Musalia Mudavadi. Like it has been suggested before, Moi will urge his Luhya loyalists to reject the offer which the Luhyas already have in Moody Awori. Right from the beginning Mudavadi did not seem very eager to oppose Raila and he actually participated in the nomination in the most lackadaisical manner – a tactic that ended up making Raila reap maximum benefit; but which may cause Mudavadi a very heavy damage back home in Western Province.
As the architect of the mlolongo voting system and an excellent manipulator of both the Electoral Commission and the Provincial Administration during elections, Moi will be an extremely useful advisor to Mwai Kibaki this time. Executive powers will most certainly be used by Kibaki to create huddles for both Raila and Kalonzo when the final race for the Presidency reaches its final stages. Samuel Kivuitu’s term of office as the Chairman of the Electoral Commission, for example, comes to an end in December, just before Kenyans go to the polls and the role Moi will play in advising Kibaki on how to fill the post will be sure to pose a great danger to free and fair elections.
So far Raila has survived by the use of clever tactics which were perfected by Moi when he was in office. These include the manipulation of the mass media and maximum use of ethnic loyalty which Kibaki will now learn to make use of from the master tactician which Moi happens to be. It was therefore not for nothing that a lot of Opposition politicians cried foul when Moi made his announcement to back Kibaki.
During the referendum, areas that were dominated by either banana or orange returned ridiculous 100 per cent support for whatever stand they took, which means ballot boxes somehow were filled up by returning officers. Unless some very drastic steps are taken in the proper organization of the electoral process during the December polling, a similar tactic is bound to be repeated and when that happens Moi will be handy to advice Kibaki on what steps to take to remain in power.
As Musalia Mudavadi warned at Kasarani, this time there are 14 million registered voters and in a situation like that the Opposition has to work extra hard to make sure something unbecoming does not take place in the remote areas. With Moi sitting next to Kibaki during these elections it would be foolhardy to write off the former President’s influence in having an effect on the results.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
No winner in the fight between two ODMs!
The acceptance of the original ODM by Raila Odinga from Mugambi Imanyara poses a number of questions: Has he surrendered ODM-K to Kalonzo? Will he still organize a delegate’s conference to endorse his leadership and pave the way to straightforwardly getting a presidential ticket? Was he all the time the real owner of Imanyara’s ODM? Will his game plan be accepted by the voters outside Nyanza Province? Has everyone supporting him read and understood the constitution of ODM?
As Raila will not be able to own two ODM parties, it is obvious he has surrendered ODM-K to Kalonzo, who has all the time claimed the law was on his side. This, in actual fact, means Kalonzo will indeed be the ODM-K presidential candidate. One major advantage he has is that his symbol and the very word ODM-K have now sunk in many a voter’s heads, to an extent that it will not be surprising at all for him to get votes outside Ukambani, as many people think ODM-K is still the most popular party.
On the other hand Raila and his group will now have an uphill task of disowning ODM-K which they will probably call “ODM-Kalonzo” and trying to popularize Mugambi’s ODM which they had earlier on condemned as Mwai Kibaki’s brain child intended to divide the Opposition. Kalonzo will also, most likely, call the original ODM “Odinga ODM” making Mwai Kibaki laugh all the way back to State House.
Organizing a delegates’ conference at a cost of at least four million shillings just to endorse Raila now looks unnecessary; but without a delegates conference people like Musalia Mudavadi may be accused by his people of Kakamega of cowardice, costing him a parliamentary seat as indeed happened in 2002 when he was the country’s Vice President. To Mudavadi accepting to be Raila’s Vice President can be extremely risky.
Apart from Musalia Mudavadi, who would like a delegate’s conference in order to take part in some form of contest before losing to Raila and accepting the Vice Presidency after missing the Presidency, people like William Ruto, Najib Balala, and Joseph Nyagah will back a delegates conference so as to be part of the pact that may offer them some powerful positions in Raila’s Government. The offer will then be used as a campaign platform to go back to Parliament. Other MPs backing Raila are only after ODM tickets to make them also go back to Parliament. To avoid both unnecessary expenses and getting his hand tied up in a memorandum of understanding, Raila may also avoid a delegates’ conference.
The question of whether or not Raila was all the time the man behind Mugambi’s ODM did not appear to bother anyone at a Press Conference on 14th August when the former was handing over the party to the later; but eyebrows must have risen quite considerably when Mugambi declared, without being asked by anyone, that he was not an extortionist. Had he in fact sold his party to Raila? That will always remain a secret between the two. All that Kenyans can remember is that Raila was one of the people who once called Mugambi a Government project to weaken the real ODM which at that time was ODM-K. Was Mugambi in fact all this time a Raila project? That, again, only Mugambi and Raila can tell, but will they ever do so? Time alone will tell.
Raila’s latest game plan will be most welcome in the whole of Luo Nyanza where the majority of the people want to see their man ending up at State House; but how many supporters of the politicians who attended the Raila- Mugambi Press conference will accept that real democracy took place in ODM on August 14th? Again time alone will tell but the real threat of the original ODM still remains a primary election to nominate ODM candidates. That is when Raila will come out in his true colours and back only those who have been genuinely elected by the people. Raila knows his political survival, as a powerful ODM presidential candidate, depends on a properly organised primary election throughout the country except in Nyanza, where he will still handpick his party candidates.
If Kalonzo organises a genuine delegates’ conference and allows his supporters to conduct a democratic election before conducting a truly democratic primary election, then the old ODM will be faced by a very strong challenger in ODM-K. Parties backing President Kibaki will only survive if they too conduct primary elections. Primary elections in Kenya will be forced on politicians, who have survived through decades by owning political parties.
Now the people are demanding the ownership of all political parties that claim to be popular. The process of conducting genuine primary elections will see many political heads rolling and may very soon have to be officially taken over by the Electoral Commission. Unfortunately the new Political Parties Bill 2007 does not make that recommendation though the Bill has gone through First and Second Reading.
As the leader of ODM-K, which he claims is a party of parties; Kalonzo obviously hopes Kanu and LPK will join him and form a formidable group. It is very doubtful whether Uhuru Kenyatta will back the move due to the influence of retired President Daniel arap Moi who wants to keep the independence party away from both ODMs. Uhuru’s plan, which is more or less the same as that of the Shirikisho Party, is to join whoever wins the next Presidential election and be in the next Government.
The constitution of the original ODM has not been made public but it is obvious the party belongs to Raila and he has already chosen party leaders who will never oppose him now or in the future. The idea of creating national positions to be distributed along tribal lines has always been Raila’s tactic to gain the support of the non Luos, but, this time, it is faced with a Herculean problem of changing the country’s constitution, which must be supported by at least a two third majority of members of Parliament in the National Assembly. Paradoxically Members of Parliament are now boycotting the Assembly until the Government approves their ridiculous golden handshake that will amount to stealing billions from the taxpayers of Kenya. Getting the Constitution of Kenya changed to create various national positions Raila needs to keep his party strong is like building castles in the air.
As Raila will not be able to own two ODM parties, it is obvious he has surrendered ODM-K to Kalonzo, who has all the time claimed the law was on his side. This, in actual fact, means Kalonzo will indeed be the ODM-K presidential candidate. One major advantage he has is that his symbol and the very word ODM-K have now sunk in many a voter’s heads, to an extent that it will not be surprising at all for him to get votes outside Ukambani, as many people think ODM-K is still the most popular party.
On the other hand Raila and his group will now have an uphill task of disowning ODM-K which they will probably call “ODM-Kalonzo” and trying to popularize Mugambi’s ODM which they had earlier on condemned as Mwai Kibaki’s brain child intended to divide the Opposition. Kalonzo will also, most likely, call the original ODM “Odinga ODM” making Mwai Kibaki laugh all the way back to State House.
Organizing a delegates’ conference at a cost of at least four million shillings just to endorse Raila now looks unnecessary; but without a delegates conference people like Musalia Mudavadi may be accused by his people of Kakamega of cowardice, costing him a parliamentary seat as indeed happened in 2002 when he was the country’s Vice President. To Mudavadi accepting to be Raila’s Vice President can be extremely risky.
Apart from Musalia Mudavadi, who would like a delegate’s conference in order to take part in some form of contest before losing to Raila and accepting the Vice Presidency after missing the Presidency, people like William Ruto, Najib Balala, and Joseph Nyagah will back a delegates conference so as to be part of the pact that may offer them some powerful positions in Raila’s Government. The offer will then be used as a campaign platform to go back to Parliament. Other MPs backing Raila are only after ODM tickets to make them also go back to Parliament. To avoid both unnecessary expenses and getting his hand tied up in a memorandum of understanding, Raila may also avoid a delegates’ conference.
The question of whether or not Raila was all the time the man behind Mugambi’s ODM did not appear to bother anyone at a Press Conference on 14th August when the former was handing over the party to the later; but eyebrows must have risen quite considerably when Mugambi declared, without being asked by anyone, that he was not an extortionist. Had he in fact sold his party to Raila? That will always remain a secret between the two. All that Kenyans can remember is that Raila was one of the people who once called Mugambi a Government project to weaken the real ODM which at that time was ODM-K. Was Mugambi in fact all this time a Raila project? That, again, only Mugambi and Raila can tell, but will they ever do so? Time alone will tell.
Raila’s latest game plan will be most welcome in the whole of Luo Nyanza where the majority of the people want to see their man ending up at State House; but how many supporters of the politicians who attended the Raila- Mugambi Press conference will accept that real democracy took place in ODM on August 14th? Again time alone will tell but the real threat of the original ODM still remains a primary election to nominate ODM candidates. That is when Raila will come out in his true colours and back only those who have been genuinely elected by the people. Raila knows his political survival, as a powerful ODM presidential candidate, depends on a properly organised primary election throughout the country except in Nyanza, where he will still handpick his party candidates.
If Kalonzo organises a genuine delegates’ conference and allows his supporters to conduct a democratic election before conducting a truly democratic primary election, then the old ODM will be faced by a very strong challenger in ODM-K. Parties backing President Kibaki will only survive if they too conduct primary elections. Primary elections in Kenya will be forced on politicians, who have survived through decades by owning political parties.
Now the people are demanding the ownership of all political parties that claim to be popular. The process of conducting genuine primary elections will see many political heads rolling and may very soon have to be officially taken over by the Electoral Commission. Unfortunately the new Political Parties Bill 2007 does not make that recommendation though the Bill has gone through First and Second Reading.
As the leader of ODM-K, which he claims is a party of parties; Kalonzo obviously hopes Kanu and LPK will join him and form a formidable group. It is very doubtful whether Uhuru Kenyatta will back the move due to the influence of retired President Daniel arap Moi who wants to keep the independence party away from both ODMs. Uhuru’s plan, which is more or less the same as that of the Shirikisho Party, is to join whoever wins the next Presidential election and be in the next Government.
The constitution of the original ODM has not been made public but it is obvious the party belongs to Raila and he has already chosen party leaders who will never oppose him now or in the future. The idea of creating national positions to be distributed along tribal lines has always been Raila’s tactic to gain the support of the non Luos, but, this time, it is faced with a Herculean problem of changing the country’s constitution, which must be supported by at least a two third majority of members of Parliament in the National Assembly. Paradoxically Members of Parliament are now boycotting the Assembly until the Government approves their ridiculous golden handshake that will amount to stealing billions from the taxpayers of Kenya. Getting the Constitution of Kenya changed to create various national positions Raila needs to keep his party strong is like building castles in the air.
Monday, August 6, 2007
The Raila-Kalonzo unbridgeable crack
The political rope used in the ODM-K tug of war between Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka has finally snapped throwing the two rivals even farther apart without any hope at all of ever working together again. But the struggle to dominate the powerful opposition party continues and sooner or later it will be divided into two when one of them succeeds in kicking out the other. Kalonzo claims the law is on his side as party executives officially registered by the government support him, while Raila claims all the officials running the party headquarters are behind him. The party is sunk in greater confusion by the fact that both men are right.
The resignation of Kalonzo Musyoka from the LDP must have been a very well calculated move not necessarily to gain popularity but to make sure that Raila will never become the next president of Kenya after the December elections. It effectively denies Raila all the Kamba votes and frees Kalonzo to look for political partnership from any other quarter including the Mwai Kibaki camp. According to Agwambo the latest move by Musyoka amounts to deserting ODM-K. Yet this does not necessarily mean that Raila will become the undisputed leader of the party. Kalonzo is not the only rival Raila is facing. Even after the departure of Kalonzo Musyoka, if indeed it can be called that, Raila will still have to face Musalia Mudavadi in another confrontation.
The chances of Luhya people in general, and Kakamegas from Vihiga in particular, accepting Mudavadi to step down for Raila Odinga are very slim indeed. Likewise the Luos will never allow Agwambo to play the second fiddle ever again. The two men are likely to end up presenting nomination papers as presidential candidates separately due to uncompromising pressure from their people. With Kalonzo out of the picture, if indeed that is the case, the animosity between Raila and Mudavadi will soon start snowballing to a level of bitterness worse than that between Kalonzo and Raila.
But even in this new confrontation between Raila and Mudavadi, Raila is likely to come out triumphant as the undisputed leaders of the ODM-K. Whereas there are a few Luhyas who believe in Raila’s effective leadership, Mudavadi cannot claim to have any support what so ever in the entire Nyanza. ODM-K as a party therefore is beginning to take the shape of an individual’s property and that individual is without a doubt Raila Odinga.
As a lawyer, Kalonzo Musyoka knows the dispute between him and Raila may end up in court where the real battles will be fought giving him time to mobilize and test his forces. If the court favours him then he will be the undisputed ODM-K presidential candidate without the support of Raila Odinga. On the other hand if Raila wins the legal battle then, he too, will most certainly be the undisputed ODM-K candidate without the support of Kalonzo Musyoka and may be without the support of Musalia Mudavadi also. Either way ODM-K will be considerably weakened with the only hope of forming a very strong opposition in the next parliament.
In his heart of hearts Kalonzo would rather lose the legal battle and contest presidential elections as a third force with the hope of forming the next government with Mwai Kibaki. In this way he will make sure his Kamba people will be very powerful partners in Kibaki’s second term government. This must be the only strategy that gives him the strength to claim the ownership of ODM-K now, even though he knows the overwhelming majority of rank and file members back Raila Odinga.
If this scenario comes to reality the most puzzling question will be: What happens to Professor Julia Ojiambo of the Labour Party? The answer could be an assured nomination seat in the next Parliament. After all that is really all that the academic turned politician actually wants to be – something similar to what she is at the moment – a nominated MP. A mere nominated MP! That may sound too low a position for her but actually it is not. Parliament today is a gold mine particularly for nominated MPs who do not need to spend a penny for any campaign and not a cent for the development of any constituency. The lady knows she is being used to play a very major role in reducing the powers of Raila Odinga and if the plan succeeds both Kalonzo and Kibaki will be more than pleased to reward her with a nominated seat in the new Parliament after December.
Whatever way one looks at the agony in the ODM-K, it does not paint a rosy picture for the party’s future. Apart from the Raila – Kalonzo feuds there are bitter parliamentary nominations to be undertaken throughout the country. It is not difficult to imagine losers in the nominations ether joining the Kalonzo or Uhuru camps or any of the political parties which will be out for sale. Though the incumbent MPs are making so much noise in support of ODM-K, they will be the first to jump out of the party when they lose party nomination to go back to parliament.
Today there is a very large number of MPs who see ODM-K as an easy way to get reelected. Yet these MPs are more of a liability than an asset to the party. Their greed as MPs which started with putting up their salaries to be among the highest in the world, to making an attempt to get a golden handshake before they embark on election campaigns, have meant they have actually committed political suicide. Not even ODM-K will be able to save them from the people’s determination to throw them into the dustbin of history. As a matter of fact the easiest way for ODM to lose the next election is to nominate the current MPs to be its candidates in the next election.
Mwai Kibaki’s mysterious silence about which party to choose as his stepping stone back to power is obviously based on the fact that he is not eager at all to be associated with the current MPs. All the parties that back him have their own internal problems but none of these problems are serious enough to demand a new presidential candidate. In fact the war in these parties is based on who is more sincere and closer to Mwai Kibaki. Parliamentary nominations in these parties will also see very many losers trying to join either ODM-K or any of the more 200 political parties up for sale. The result will simply mean more of the current MPs losing their seats.
One of the MPs in very serious danger of losing their seats in Parliament is Charity Ngilu who is seen by the Kamba people as a traitor. If she joins Raila’s ODM-K, as most people expect, she will be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. But she too knows what she is doing as backing Raila means an assured nominated seat in Parliament.
In the final analysis the present fighting in almost all the major parties in the country may end up with only Raila and Mwai Kibaki fighting out to the bitter end. In that fight Kibaki is not as weak as he was during the referendum because today the issues dividing the people of Kenya are very different. The Orange’s strength has considerably weakened. If things do not change from what they are today the fight in December will be very bitter between those two candidates and Kibaki may end up in State House for the second time. His majority however will be considerably smaller this time compared to the votes he got in 2002.
The resignation of Kalonzo Musyoka from the LDP must have been a very well calculated move not necessarily to gain popularity but to make sure that Raila will never become the next president of Kenya after the December elections. It effectively denies Raila all the Kamba votes and frees Kalonzo to look for political partnership from any other quarter including the Mwai Kibaki camp. According to Agwambo the latest move by Musyoka amounts to deserting ODM-K. Yet this does not necessarily mean that Raila will become the undisputed leader of the party. Kalonzo is not the only rival Raila is facing. Even after the departure of Kalonzo Musyoka, if indeed it can be called that, Raila will still have to face Musalia Mudavadi in another confrontation.
The chances of Luhya people in general, and Kakamegas from Vihiga in particular, accepting Mudavadi to step down for Raila Odinga are very slim indeed. Likewise the Luos will never allow Agwambo to play the second fiddle ever again. The two men are likely to end up presenting nomination papers as presidential candidates separately due to uncompromising pressure from their people. With Kalonzo out of the picture, if indeed that is the case, the animosity between Raila and Mudavadi will soon start snowballing to a level of bitterness worse than that between Kalonzo and Raila.
But even in this new confrontation between Raila and Mudavadi, Raila is likely to come out triumphant as the undisputed leaders of the ODM-K. Whereas there are a few Luhyas who believe in Raila’s effective leadership, Mudavadi cannot claim to have any support what so ever in the entire Nyanza. ODM-K as a party therefore is beginning to take the shape of an individual’s property and that individual is without a doubt Raila Odinga.
As a lawyer, Kalonzo Musyoka knows the dispute between him and Raila may end up in court where the real battles will be fought giving him time to mobilize and test his forces. If the court favours him then he will be the undisputed ODM-K presidential candidate without the support of Raila Odinga. On the other hand if Raila wins the legal battle then, he too, will most certainly be the undisputed ODM-K candidate without the support of Kalonzo Musyoka and may be without the support of Musalia Mudavadi also. Either way ODM-K will be considerably weakened with the only hope of forming a very strong opposition in the next parliament.
In his heart of hearts Kalonzo would rather lose the legal battle and contest presidential elections as a third force with the hope of forming the next government with Mwai Kibaki. In this way he will make sure his Kamba people will be very powerful partners in Kibaki’s second term government. This must be the only strategy that gives him the strength to claim the ownership of ODM-K now, even though he knows the overwhelming majority of rank and file members back Raila Odinga.
If this scenario comes to reality the most puzzling question will be: What happens to Professor Julia Ojiambo of the Labour Party? The answer could be an assured nomination seat in the next Parliament. After all that is really all that the academic turned politician actually wants to be – something similar to what she is at the moment – a nominated MP. A mere nominated MP! That may sound too low a position for her but actually it is not. Parliament today is a gold mine particularly for nominated MPs who do not need to spend a penny for any campaign and not a cent for the development of any constituency. The lady knows she is being used to play a very major role in reducing the powers of Raila Odinga and if the plan succeeds both Kalonzo and Kibaki will be more than pleased to reward her with a nominated seat in the new Parliament after December.
Whatever way one looks at the agony in the ODM-K, it does not paint a rosy picture for the party’s future. Apart from the Raila – Kalonzo feuds there are bitter parliamentary nominations to be undertaken throughout the country. It is not difficult to imagine losers in the nominations ether joining the Kalonzo or Uhuru camps or any of the political parties which will be out for sale. Though the incumbent MPs are making so much noise in support of ODM-K, they will be the first to jump out of the party when they lose party nomination to go back to parliament.
Today there is a very large number of MPs who see ODM-K as an easy way to get reelected. Yet these MPs are more of a liability than an asset to the party. Their greed as MPs which started with putting up their salaries to be among the highest in the world, to making an attempt to get a golden handshake before they embark on election campaigns, have meant they have actually committed political suicide. Not even ODM-K will be able to save them from the people’s determination to throw them into the dustbin of history. As a matter of fact the easiest way for ODM to lose the next election is to nominate the current MPs to be its candidates in the next election.
Mwai Kibaki’s mysterious silence about which party to choose as his stepping stone back to power is obviously based on the fact that he is not eager at all to be associated with the current MPs. All the parties that back him have their own internal problems but none of these problems are serious enough to demand a new presidential candidate. In fact the war in these parties is based on who is more sincere and closer to Mwai Kibaki. Parliamentary nominations in these parties will also see very many losers trying to join either ODM-K or any of the more 200 political parties up for sale. The result will simply mean more of the current MPs losing their seats.
One of the MPs in very serious danger of losing their seats in Parliament is Charity Ngilu who is seen by the Kamba people as a traitor. If she joins Raila’s ODM-K, as most people expect, she will be jumping from the frying pan into the fire. But she too knows what she is doing as backing Raila means an assured nominated seat in Parliament.
In the final analysis the present fighting in almost all the major parties in the country may end up with only Raila and Mwai Kibaki fighting out to the bitter end. In that fight Kibaki is not as weak as he was during the referendum because today the issues dividing the people of Kenya are very different. The Orange’s strength has considerably weakened. If things do not change from what they are today the fight in December will be very bitter between those two candidates and Kibaki may end up in State House for the second time. His majority however will be considerably smaller this time compared to the votes he got in 2002.
Sunday, June 17, 2007
Uhuru Rocks Both Kanu and ODM
Uhuru Kenyatta is a political power to reckon with. His refusal to submit presidential nomination papers to the ODM has seriously rocked the unity in what appeared to be the strongest force against Mwai Kibaki in the forthcoming December general election. It has also clearly shown who is the real boss of the section of Kanu that has a love hate relationship with ODM, which the ODM desperately needs to remove Kibaki from power. Yet he is now threatening to pull the oldest party in Kenya from the fragile ODM unity and is also posing serious questions no one in ODM is prepared to answer.
Hence the desperate and futile attempt to cajole him back into the fold in order to use him and his massive supporters as a mere rubber stamp for the benefit of an invisible manipulator within ODM. But alas, Uhuru has seen through the whole scheme and he is now fighting with the most formidable force of oratory and immense financial power to be given an audience. The whole country is now listening to him and whatever steps he takes will have far-reaching political consequences.
If he decides to run in the next election as Kanu’s presidential candidate, ODM will have no hope in hell of forming the next government. The majority of the people who gathered at Kasarani on June 11th Kanu NDC will vote for him in the hope of at least negotiating on equal footing with whoever wins the Presidential elections in December. Uhuru’s candidature will in fact open the State House doors even wider for President Kibaki with whom Uhuru has never said he will not negotiate. The chances of ODM forming the next government will be further reduced by Kanu’s sponsorship of a parliamentary candidate in every constituency. Uhuru has decided to do both for the benefit of his party and there is plenty of evidence to show that he is not likely to change his mind easily. After all he is a political animal who believes in the survival of the fittest in the struggle for existence.
William Ruto’s attempt to disregard Uhuru’s demands and kick him out ODM will neither get the support of the real power behind ODM nor that of ordinary Kanu members who look at Uhuru with new respect as a tough leader they never knew before. The real power behind ODM knows that without Kanu the party cannot threaten Mwai Kibaki’s popularity. Without Kanu ODM will also be exposed to the people in its true colours – which is a group of disgruntled politicians who once belonged to Kanu but pulled out in 2002 to form the LDP, another party that has yet to organise its own elections. So Uhuru is more powerful than many would like to accept.
The question he poses is extremely relevant: Is ODM an umbrella organisation that brings together like mined parties or is it a political party itself? The question may sound rhetorical and he probably knows its answer but if it is indeed a political party like everyone knows it to be, then it is extremely dangerous for Kanu to join it. Doing so will indeed be committing political suicide. It will simply be the end of Kanu. The question many are bound to ask is: Isn’t Kanu already in ODM? The answer is simple. Without Uhuru the entire party cannot claim to be in ODM and those who are in it individually like Ruto have yet to know Uhuru’s future schemes. Ruto without the support of Moi and Biwott in Kanu is like a pub with no beer even if he gets the support of the likes of Dalmas Otieno who is only in ODM to win a nomination in a Luo Nyanza constituency that will take him back to parliament.
It will not be surprising at all for Uhuru to organise another NDC for Kanu to see his plans endorsed. Indeed if there was a secret ballot at Kasarani on June 11th he would have carried the day. Besides that, he seems to be the only person in the party who can afford more than thirty million shillings needed to organise such a gathering. It is obvious that Uhuru will take that step before December as he has already tested the waters.
That there is an invisible manipulator in ODM there is no doubt. Its oath of allegiance removes all constitutional rights of freedom of association from whoever takes it. Uhuru has refused. It also demands to know what role one played in the so-called second liberation. Obviously Uhuru cannot answer that question positively as indeed he was against the second liberation if at all it can be called that. All the same today he speaks with a lot of political power behind him not only because of being the most financially dominant within both Kanu and ODM, but also because of his age. In December he will most certainly be the youngest presidential candidate and the fact that the vote from the youth will be the deciding factor in the elections is yet another advantage in favour of Uhuru. His wherewithal allows him to travel far and wide seeking the vote from the youthful electorate which must now be admiring his courage to call a spade a spade both within Kanu and ODM.
In this political game of intrigue both within and between Kanu and ODM the most amused observer, if an observer indeed he is, is the retired President Daniel arap Moi. When Uhuru joined ODM he disowned him, yet when he showed some teeth and willingness to bite he hailed the son of the first president. It will not be surprising at all to find out that Moi is perhaps the brain behind Uhuru’s stubbornness. Moi’s biggest headache remains the divided Kanu; but with Uhuru back in the camp it will not be surprising at all for the former President to play the role of mediator between the two factions of Kanu. With Nicholas Biwott, Uhuru Kenyatta and Moi in one united Kanu it will be the revamped and richest party in the country with the most rejuvenated presidential candidate.
A stubborn Uhuru is only one of the many problems of ODM. The other major one is how to conduct primary elections not only for the presidential candidate but also for the parliamentary candidates. In certain parts of the country such as Luo Nyanza winning the ODM nomination will be as good as winning a seat in the Legislature. So the campaign will be tough and, unfortunately, very ethnically oriented. If Uhuru can convince the people of Kenya that his New Kanu is above tribalism then both ODM, Narc Kenya and whatever party Mwai Kibaki chooses to get the ticket from will have to take him very seriously indeed. This is a new Uhuru Kenyans are seeing and he is an Uhuru with a lot of political power behind him.
Hence the desperate and futile attempt to cajole him back into the fold in order to use him and his massive supporters as a mere rubber stamp for the benefit of an invisible manipulator within ODM. But alas, Uhuru has seen through the whole scheme and he is now fighting with the most formidable force of oratory and immense financial power to be given an audience. The whole country is now listening to him and whatever steps he takes will have far-reaching political consequences.
If he decides to run in the next election as Kanu’s presidential candidate, ODM will have no hope in hell of forming the next government. The majority of the people who gathered at Kasarani on June 11th Kanu NDC will vote for him in the hope of at least negotiating on equal footing with whoever wins the Presidential elections in December. Uhuru’s candidature will in fact open the State House doors even wider for President Kibaki with whom Uhuru has never said he will not negotiate. The chances of ODM forming the next government will be further reduced by Kanu’s sponsorship of a parliamentary candidate in every constituency. Uhuru has decided to do both for the benefit of his party and there is plenty of evidence to show that he is not likely to change his mind easily. After all he is a political animal who believes in the survival of the fittest in the struggle for existence.
William Ruto’s attempt to disregard Uhuru’s demands and kick him out ODM will neither get the support of the real power behind ODM nor that of ordinary Kanu members who look at Uhuru with new respect as a tough leader they never knew before. The real power behind ODM knows that without Kanu the party cannot threaten Mwai Kibaki’s popularity. Without Kanu ODM will also be exposed to the people in its true colours – which is a group of disgruntled politicians who once belonged to Kanu but pulled out in 2002 to form the LDP, another party that has yet to organise its own elections. So Uhuru is more powerful than many would like to accept.
The question he poses is extremely relevant: Is ODM an umbrella organisation that brings together like mined parties or is it a political party itself? The question may sound rhetorical and he probably knows its answer but if it is indeed a political party like everyone knows it to be, then it is extremely dangerous for Kanu to join it. Doing so will indeed be committing political suicide. It will simply be the end of Kanu. The question many are bound to ask is: Isn’t Kanu already in ODM? The answer is simple. Without Uhuru the entire party cannot claim to be in ODM and those who are in it individually like Ruto have yet to know Uhuru’s future schemes. Ruto without the support of Moi and Biwott in Kanu is like a pub with no beer even if he gets the support of the likes of Dalmas Otieno who is only in ODM to win a nomination in a Luo Nyanza constituency that will take him back to parliament.
It will not be surprising at all for Uhuru to organise another NDC for Kanu to see his plans endorsed. Indeed if there was a secret ballot at Kasarani on June 11th he would have carried the day. Besides that, he seems to be the only person in the party who can afford more than thirty million shillings needed to organise such a gathering. It is obvious that Uhuru will take that step before December as he has already tested the waters.
That there is an invisible manipulator in ODM there is no doubt. Its oath of allegiance removes all constitutional rights of freedom of association from whoever takes it. Uhuru has refused. It also demands to know what role one played in the so-called second liberation. Obviously Uhuru cannot answer that question positively as indeed he was against the second liberation if at all it can be called that. All the same today he speaks with a lot of political power behind him not only because of being the most financially dominant within both Kanu and ODM, but also because of his age. In December he will most certainly be the youngest presidential candidate and the fact that the vote from the youth will be the deciding factor in the elections is yet another advantage in favour of Uhuru. His wherewithal allows him to travel far and wide seeking the vote from the youthful electorate which must now be admiring his courage to call a spade a spade both within Kanu and ODM.
In this political game of intrigue both within and between Kanu and ODM the most amused observer, if an observer indeed he is, is the retired President Daniel arap Moi. When Uhuru joined ODM he disowned him, yet when he showed some teeth and willingness to bite he hailed the son of the first president. It will not be surprising at all to find out that Moi is perhaps the brain behind Uhuru’s stubbornness. Moi’s biggest headache remains the divided Kanu; but with Uhuru back in the camp it will not be surprising at all for the former President to play the role of mediator between the two factions of Kanu. With Nicholas Biwott, Uhuru Kenyatta and Moi in one united Kanu it will be the revamped and richest party in the country with the most rejuvenated presidential candidate.
A stubborn Uhuru is only one of the many problems of ODM. The other major one is how to conduct primary elections not only for the presidential candidate but also for the parliamentary candidates. In certain parts of the country such as Luo Nyanza winning the ODM nomination will be as good as winning a seat in the Legislature. So the campaign will be tough and, unfortunately, very ethnically oriented. If Uhuru can convince the people of Kenya that his New Kanu is above tribalism then both ODM, Narc Kenya and whatever party Mwai Kibaki chooses to get the ticket from will have to take him very seriously indeed. This is a new Uhuru Kenyans are seeing and he is an Uhuru with a lot of political power behind him.
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